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Look, I realize a few of you, even some smart guys, are thinking that Cleveland is no good. You also believe they will go under the win total, as it was 74.5 and now is 73.5 at many spots. I am here to try and talk you out of it.
First, some background on my wager to win more than 73.5 games this year. Even though I live in Northeast Ohio and have all my life, I don't like the home teams. I say this because I've already had to correct a few people over the years with their thinking that a point of view I shared with you was because of some love for the home teams. NONSENSE. I can't stand the tribe, although I used to love them. I hate them now for selfish reasons, as I can't watch half of the fucking College Football games on Saturday nights on FSN due to Tribe telecasts (and then Blue Jackets hockey LOL, but that's another gripe). Not to mention that when the Indians make the playoffs, fucking Damons (where I enjoy my Sunday afternoons watching 4 games at a time) threatens to show their playoff games on Sunday afternoons until the patrons hoot them down in favor of NFL games. What a joke. But anyway, here's the reasoning.......
Cleveland is better than last year. I realize Eric Wedge is fairly unknown around baseball, but he has the respect of opponents and his own players alike. Last season this team had no chance, yet he was on them to try and win every game, and the team pretty much responded. They were a very young and inexperienced group, and in baseball that means something. His style has grown on the players enough that they will be able to trust his decisions throughout the year. That is key.
The pitching is not that bad. Sabathia is a good pitcher. Jason Davis is OK, and getting tougher to hit each outing. Cliff Lee is a smart power left hander that will get a spot. With 2 more guys that don't scare anybody (Bere, Stanford, Westbrook, Durbin, and maybe Tallet), this is not a good rotation. YET. But these guys are high enough on the prospect list and have grown enough that a couple of them should have success this year. The bullpen is loaded with guys that not many people respect. Jose Jimenez's stats looked bad.....in Colorado. But he's a tough pitcher that will bolster the staff. Wickman might or might not return to the success he had a couple years ago, but the tribe has David Riske, who in my opinion will take over as closer by May, and that will settle things down. He's effective enough, and their setup guys adequate enough, to give the tribe a good bullpen.
The hitters are young. But these guys have now been in the majors a year or two. Jody Gerut, Milton Bradley, Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez and Ben Broussard have all shown they have they ability to be considered highly touted prospects ( In fact Bradley has proven that he's a true major leaguer). Highly enough that 3 out of the 5 should do pretty well this year, considering what they've done so far AND their potential. That means their lineup will score more runs.
Add these facts to the important measure of the AL Central. KC, Minny and the White Sox were all much better than Cleveland last year. ALL 3 have lost something of what they had. 2 out of the 3 (Chi and Min) are definitely worse than they were last season, and KC is betting on the balky back of Juan Gonzalez to improve. That means that out of a composite record of 259-237 (last season for those 3 teams), there are some wins left on the table for a better team to pick up. Cleveland finished 68-94 last year. Come on now, are you really thinking that this team will be as bad as last year? Even if I am wrong about them making a small improvement, if the other teams win fewer games, that means Cleveland wins more due to this dumb scheduling imbalance we've gone to. The tribe plays Boston and NYY a grand total of 13 times this year, while playing their central division rivals a total of 72 times.
If I am correct about the other 3 teams being not quite as good on the whole, then Cleveland picks up a few wins. All they have to do now is win 6 more games than last year to go over 73.5 wins. I peg them at about 80-82 for a final record. I see a small improvement based on more experience for both the young pitchers and hitters, and really all they lost from last year was a decent closer in Danys Baez, a guy they can afford to lose due to having Wickman and Riske. I know everybody makes fun of Peter Gammons. I happen to respect the guy, as long as he's not talking Bosox. One thing he said in 2002 when the tribe had their fire sale was that baseball insiders all thought that Cleveland had picked up more than a dozen top prospects in the trades they made. All they need is for 1/3 to live up to their status, and this team could be rocking in 2005. In the meantime, this team can go at least 5 games over the total this season.
That's enough for me to make my wagers......
Cleveland -- OVER 73.5 Wins -- $1,150 to win $1000
Cleveland to win AL Central -- $200 to win $1900
I threw the Central bet in there just in case this team surprises even me and gets better than I think they will. They have just enough potential and just enough of a weak division, assuming I am right about the other 3 (not even mentioning the pitiful tiggers), to warrant it.
Good luck everybody.
First, some background on my wager to win more than 73.5 games this year. Even though I live in Northeast Ohio and have all my life, I don't like the home teams. I say this because I've already had to correct a few people over the years with their thinking that a point of view I shared with you was because of some love for the home teams. NONSENSE. I can't stand the tribe, although I used to love them. I hate them now for selfish reasons, as I can't watch half of the fucking College Football games on Saturday nights on FSN due to Tribe telecasts (and then Blue Jackets hockey LOL, but that's another gripe). Not to mention that when the Indians make the playoffs, fucking Damons (where I enjoy my Sunday afternoons watching 4 games at a time) threatens to show their playoff games on Sunday afternoons until the patrons hoot them down in favor of NFL games. What a joke. But anyway, here's the reasoning.......
Cleveland is better than last year. I realize Eric Wedge is fairly unknown around baseball, but he has the respect of opponents and his own players alike. Last season this team had no chance, yet he was on them to try and win every game, and the team pretty much responded. They were a very young and inexperienced group, and in baseball that means something. His style has grown on the players enough that they will be able to trust his decisions throughout the year. That is key.
The pitching is not that bad. Sabathia is a good pitcher. Jason Davis is OK, and getting tougher to hit each outing. Cliff Lee is a smart power left hander that will get a spot. With 2 more guys that don't scare anybody (Bere, Stanford, Westbrook, Durbin, and maybe Tallet), this is not a good rotation. YET. But these guys are high enough on the prospect list and have grown enough that a couple of them should have success this year. The bullpen is loaded with guys that not many people respect. Jose Jimenez's stats looked bad.....in Colorado. But he's a tough pitcher that will bolster the staff. Wickman might or might not return to the success he had a couple years ago, but the tribe has David Riske, who in my opinion will take over as closer by May, and that will settle things down. He's effective enough, and their setup guys adequate enough, to give the tribe a good bullpen.
The hitters are young. But these guys have now been in the majors a year or two. Jody Gerut, Milton Bradley, Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez and Ben Broussard have all shown they have they ability to be considered highly touted prospects ( In fact Bradley has proven that he's a true major leaguer). Highly enough that 3 out of the 5 should do pretty well this year, considering what they've done so far AND their potential. That means their lineup will score more runs.
Add these facts to the important measure of the AL Central. KC, Minny and the White Sox were all much better than Cleveland last year. ALL 3 have lost something of what they had. 2 out of the 3 (Chi and Min) are definitely worse than they were last season, and KC is betting on the balky back of Juan Gonzalez to improve. That means that out of a composite record of 259-237 (last season for those 3 teams), there are some wins left on the table for a better team to pick up. Cleveland finished 68-94 last year. Come on now, are you really thinking that this team will be as bad as last year? Even if I am wrong about them making a small improvement, if the other teams win fewer games, that means Cleveland wins more due to this dumb scheduling imbalance we've gone to. The tribe plays Boston and NYY a grand total of 13 times this year, while playing their central division rivals a total of 72 times.
If I am correct about the other 3 teams being not quite as good on the whole, then Cleveland picks up a few wins. All they have to do now is win 6 more games than last year to go over 73.5 wins. I peg them at about 80-82 for a final record. I see a small improvement based on more experience for both the young pitchers and hitters, and really all they lost from last year was a decent closer in Danys Baez, a guy they can afford to lose due to having Wickman and Riske. I know everybody makes fun of Peter Gammons. I happen to respect the guy, as long as he's not talking Bosox. One thing he said in 2002 when the tribe had their fire sale was that baseball insiders all thought that Cleveland had picked up more than a dozen top prospects in the trades they made. All they need is for 1/3 to live up to their status, and this team could be rocking in 2005. In the meantime, this team can go at least 5 games over the total this season.
That's enough for me to make my wagers......
Cleveland -- OVER 73.5 Wins -- $1,150 to win $1000
Cleveland to win AL Central -- $200 to win $1900
I threw the Central bet in there just in case this team surprises even me and gets better than I think they will. They have just enough potential and just enough of a weak division, assuming I am right about the other 3 (not even mentioning the pitiful tiggers), to warrant it.
Good luck everybody.