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NFL write up
NFC Championship - Philadelphia / Tampa Bay:
Hopefully you have done some preliminary web research on this contest and are fully aware of the recent history of domination by the Eagles over the Bucs at veterans stadium; Grudens history with Veterans stadium; And the Bucs poor cold weather performance ATS. What you may not be aware of is that these facts & trends have already been factored into the line - this is a fat line on TB. We performed three sets of scorecasting data on this game and each model had Tampa Bay covering the number. Typically the spread will be a factor about 14% of the time, in this spot because of the dynamics of these two squads, we feel the probability of the spread being a factor has increased to about 18%. Keep that in mind when making your decision.
On defense these two teams are at the top of the league in all the major defensive categories. This game features 6 pro bowl players in the respective secondary's. Whatever the Under is...take it. Not just because of trend data, but because fundamentally these two teams offense's are going to have a hard time punching the ball in the endzone. The linebackers at the edges on both sides of the ball are quick playmakers, each squad has a probowl caliber DE. TB coach Gruden has a history of playing conservatively. With his low scoring offense he will take few chances and hope his defense can make a big play. Neither of the Bucs starting wideouts has blazing speed. When the Eagles blitz, and they will, the Bucs don't have the speed to get downfield and make em pay for taking a risk. There is another wildcard many people will not be aware of. Philly lost their starting punter (Sean Landeta). Journeyman Lee Johnson won the job in auditions and we expect he would handle the chores several times in this contest. A shanked punt from a late roster addition is a real possibility in this contest.
On offense Philly has a real edge (over their Bucs counterparts) with their rushing offense on artificial turf going against the Bucs defense. Philly has an unheralded but very effective offensive line. They also have intangible advantages with McNabb's scrambling & playmaking ability. TB QB Brad Johnson is more of a pocket passer. He had great numbers this year, but his QB rating dips significantly when he's away from home. The Bucs offensive line is their weak link (We predict the Tampa offensive line will undergo some tweeking this off-season). Former 1st round pick RT Kenyatta Walker has been a bit of a disappointment. The Bucs running game, with Alstott & Pittman, is suited for ground and pound on grass, on the road on turf their numbers drop significantly - again we trace the root of the problems to the Bucs offensive line.
The intangible factor: The outcome of this game will be decided by how well Tampa's O-line fares against the Philly D-line (edge to Philly). This is the last game at Veterans field and the house will be rockin. Last year when Philly played St. Louis in the NFC championship game, Al and I saw something in the Philly players that has stayed with us. The Eagles were over-matched personnel wise but played with the heart of champions. Eagles players have made personal sacrifices during the off-season aimed at improving their timing & communication, as well as payroll sacrifices which have allowed the Philadelphia front office to make key roster additions. The players themselves are focused on winning a championship. We're going to lay the fat number and ride our pre-season pick, the Eagles, to represent the NFC in the championship game.
AFC Championship - Oakland / Tennessee:
Tennessee is just too banged up... and traveling across the coast. The Titans are hurting: McNair has a swollen thumb on his throwing hand (reminds us of Warner). An injury he sustained against Pittsburgh. He did not participate in practice this week and Friday is a travel day. His 2nd best receiver, Kevin Dyson, is out for the year. The 2nd best cover man on the team, Andre Dyson, suffered a dislocated shoulder against Pittsburgh last week and has been held out of practice; However he is expected to play. Jevon Kearse is still suffering from a broken foot he sustained at the beginning of the year - he played sparingly against Pittsburgh after re-aggravating the injury in practice. Eddie George sustained a concussion - but appears to be fully recovered. Starting OG Zack Pillar (missed final 3 regular season games) re-aggravated a calf pull in the 1st quarter of the Pittsburgh game and has not practiced yet this week. Odds are that at least two of these key injured players will not be able to contribute at 100% effectiveness against Oakland.
On defense Tennessee is woefully thin in the secondary. They have one of the leagues lowest rated pass defenses (#25). Though they improved significantly over the 2nd half of the season. The combination of the injury to cb Andre Dyson, and facing the leagues most potent pass attack, spells trouble for Tennessee. The Titans are great at stopping the run - they have the leagues 2nd rated rush defense. They are strong at linebacker and strong across the front four. However they are not great at putting heat on the quarterback, getting only 23 sacks this season as a team. They will be challenged to find an answer for Jerry Porter coming out of the slot.
On offense the Titans have been solid running the ball and effective operating out of a two TE spread offense. The wide receivers are underrated Derrick Mason and surprise performer Drew Bennett. Frank Wychek and Erron Kinney are the tight ends. The line is anchored by a pair of solid driving guards in Zach Pillar (may not play) and Benji Olson. When the Titans make up their mind to run - they're tough to stop. This system allowed the injury depleted Titans to put their best players on the field. The spread worked well playing in the AFC South where the opposition relies heavily on zone coverage (which keeps the safeties back), and zone blitzes. But Oakland plays mostly man to man (which would allow them to roll up the strong safety in run support), and they do not often blitz their linebackers, preferring they match-up man to man on the tight ends.
The case for Oakland starts with their veteran leaders. This is an all-star HOF cast - and these guys are playing like they don't know they're knocking on the door of 40. They're at home and for the most part they're healthy. Trace Armstrong went on IR this week, but the man he had been sharing time with, 2nd year DE DeLawrence Grant, has been performing at a superior level over the 2nd half of the season. Oakland is missing two key special teams performers which contributed to their previous 52-25 victory - but in turn the Titans will be missing key standout performers on their coverage units. The Raiders have 4 viable threats at receiver - not counting RB Charlie Garner out of the backfield, who had 91 catches this year. The Titans have 2 solid cover men (one of whom is injured). This is a huge edge to the number 1 passing offense in the league. The offensive line averages 325 lbs across the front five. All of their starters are healthy, and some of their back-ups would be starters on other teams. They are equally adept at drive or pass blocking. Tennessee's best playmakers on their defensive front (Haynesworth & Kearse) - will be matched up against pro bowl caliber players (Robbins & Kennedy). The Titans simply don't have the athletes to cover all the Raiders receivers - somebody somewhere is going to have a mismatch.
On defense the Raiders have two starting cornerbacks who sustained broken legs this year. They are playing with metal plates in their calves. Last week the refs let them play very physical with the Jets speedy wideouts. Charles Woodson & Tory James were up to the task, shutting down the Jets wideouts with their physical defensive play. We anticipate that the refs will "let them play" this week too. If the corners do get beat, safety Rod Woodson has been a solid stop back this season. The linebackers are athletic and quick. Wily strong side linebacker Bill Romonowski (who is used to playing against the likes of Tony Gonzalez) will match-up on one of McNair's favorite target's, Frank wychek.
Across the board we see match-up after match-up favoring the Raiders in this contest. The intangible factors also favor the Raiders. The Titans have one great player in Steve McNair, but the Raiders have several. We'll lay the number and pick Oakland to represent the AFC in the Superbowl.
Peace
Football Forecasters
Our B Rated Free NFL Picks this week:
Philadelphia
Oakland
Free NFL Picks "Also Likes": Under Philly / TB, Over Oak / Tenn
Hopefully you have done some preliminary web research on this contest and are fully aware of the recent history of domination by the Eagles over the Bucs at veterans stadium; Grudens history with Veterans stadium; And the Bucs poor cold weather performance ATS. What you may not be aware of is that these facts & trends have already been factored into the line - this is a fat line on TB. We performed three sets of scorecasting data on this game and each model had Tampa Bay covering the number. Typically the spread will be a factor about 14% of the time, in this spot because of the dynamics of these two squads, we feel the probability of the spread being a factor has increased to about 18%. Keep that in mind when making your decision.
On defense these two teams are at the top of the league in all the major defensive categories. This game features 6 pro bowl players in the respective secondary's. Whatever the Under is...take it. Not just because of trend data, but because fundamentally these two teams offense's are going to have a hard time punching the ball in the endzone. The linebackers at the edges on both sides of the ball are quick playmakers, each squad has a probowl caliber DE. TB coach Gruden has a history of playing conservatively. With his low scoring offense he will take few chances and hope his defense can make a big play. Neither of the Bucs starting wideouts has blazing speed. When the Eagles blitz, and they will, the Bucs don't have the speed to get downfield and make em pay for taking a risk. There is another wildcard many people will not be aware of. Philly lost their starting punter (Sean Landeta). Journeyman Lee Johnson won the job in auditions and we expect he would handle the chores several times in this contest. A shanked punt from a late roster addition is a real possibility in this contest.
On offense Philly has a real edge (over their Bucs counterparts) with their rushing offense on artificial turf going against the Bucs defense. Philly has an unheralded but very effective offensive line. They also have intangible advantages with McNabb's scrambling & playmaking ability. TB QB Brad Johnson is more of a pocket passer. He had great numbers this year, but his QB rating dips significantly when he's away from home. The Bucs offensive line is their weak link (We predict the Tampa offensive line will undergo some tweeking this off-season). Former 1st round pick RT Kenyatta Walker has been a bit of a disappointment. The Bucs running game, with Alstott & Pittman, is suited for ground and pound on grass, on the road on turf their numbers drop significantly - again we trace the root of the problems to the Bucs offensive line.
The intangible factor: The outcome of this game will be decided by how well Tampa's O-line fares against the Philly D-line (edge to Philly). This is the last game at Veterans field and the house will be rockin. Last year when Philly played St. Louis in the NFC championship game, Al and I saw something in the Philly players that has stayed with us. The Eagles were over-matched personnel wise but played with the heart of champions. Eagles players have made personal sacrifices during the off-season aimed at improving their timing & communication, as well as payroll sacrifices which have allowed the Philadelphia front office to make key roster additions. The players themselves are focused on winning a championship. We're going to lay the fat number and ride our pre-season pick, the Eagles, to represent the NFC in the championship game.
AFC Championship - Oakland / Tennessee:
Tennessee is just too banged up... and traveling across the coast. The Titans are hurting: McNair has a swollen thumb on his throwing hand (reminds us of Warner). An injury he sustained against Pittsburgh. He did not participate in practice this week and Friday is a travel day. His 2nd best receiver, Kevin Dyson, is out for the year. The 2nd best cover man on the team, Andre Dyson, suffered a dislocated shoulder against Pittsburgh last week and has been held out of practice; However he is expected to play. Jevon Kearse is still suffering from a broken foot he sustained at the beginning of the year - he played sparingly against Pittsburgh after re-aggravating the injury in practice. Eddie George sustained a concussion - but appears to be fully recovered. Starting OG Zack Pillar (missed final 3 regular season games) re-aggravated a calf pull in the 1st quarter of the Pittsburgh game and has not practiced yet this week. Odds are that at least two of these key injured players will not be able to contribute at 100% effectiveness against Oakland.
On defense Tennessee is woefully thin in the secondary. They have one of the leagues lowest rated pass defenses (#25). Though they improved significantly over the 2nd half of the season. The combination of the injury to cb Andre Dyson, and facing the leagues most potent pass attack, spells trouble for Tennessee. The Titans are great at stopping the run - they have the leagues 2nd rated rush defense. They are strong at linebacker and strong across the front four. However they are not great at putting heat on the quarterback, getting only 23 sacks this season as a team. They will be challenged to find an answer for Jerry Porter coming out of the slot.
On offense the Titans have been solid running the ball and effective operating out of a two TE spread offense. The wide receivers are underrated Derrick Mason and surprise performer Drew Bennett. Frank Wychek and Erron Kinney are the tight ends. The line is anchored by a pair of solid driving guards in Zach Pillar (may not play) and Benji Olson. When the Titans make up their mind to run - they're tough to stop. This system allowed the injury depleted Titans to put their best players on the field. The spread worked well playing in the AFC South where the opposition relies heavily on zone coverage (which keeps the safeties back), and zone blitzes. But Oakland plays mostly man to man (which would allow them to roll up the strong safety in run support), and they do not often blitz their linebackers, preferring they match-up man to man on the tight ends.
The case for Oakland starts with their veteran leaders. This is an all-star HOF cast - and these guys are playing like they don't know they're knocking on the door of 40. They're at home and for the most part they're healthy. Trace Armstrong went on IR this week, but the man he had been sharing time with, 2nd year DE DeLawrence Grant, has been performing at a superior level over the 2nd half of the season. Oakland is missing two key special teams performers which contributed to their previous 52-25 victory - but in turn the Titans will be missing key standout performers on their coverage units. The Raiders have 4 viable threats at receiver - not counting RB Charlie Garner out of the backfield, who had 91 catches this year. The Titans have 2 solid cover men (one of whom is injured). This is a huge edge to the number 1 passing offense in the league. The offensive line averages 325 lbs across the front five. All of their starters are healthy, and some of their back-ups would be starters on other teams. They are equally adept at drive or pass blocking. Tennessee's best playmakers on their defensive front (Haynesworth & Kearse) - will be matched up against pro bowl caliber players (Robbins & Kennedy). The Titans simply don't have the athletes to cover all the Raiders receivers - somebody somewhere is going to have a mismatch.
On defense the Raiders have two starting cornerbacks who sustained broken legs this year. They are playing with metal plates in their calves. Last week the refs let them play very physical with the Jets speedy wideouts. Charles Woodson & Tory James were up to the task, shutting down the Jets wideouts with their physical defensive play. We anticipate that the refs will "let them play" this week too. If the corners do get beat, safety Rod Woodson has been a solid stop back this season. The linebackers are athletic and quick. Wily strong side linebacker Bill Romonowski (who is used to playing against the likes of Tony Gonzalez) will match-up on one of McNair's favorite target's, Frank wychek.
Across the board we see match-up after match-up favoring the Raiders in this contest. The intangible factors also favor the Raiders. The Titans have one great player in Steve McNair, but the Raiders have several. We'll lay the number and pick Oakland to represent the AFC in the Superbowl.
Peace
Football Forecasters
Our B Rated Free NFL Picks this week:
Philadelphia
Oakland
Free NFL Picks "Also Likes": Under Philly / TB, Over Oak / Tenn