NFL Week 9

[roccodean]

1* Miami over Cinci
Play at +3 or better--going to see if I can get 3.5
Cinci is coming off a blowout win while Mia is on a losing streak, which is why the line is Mia +3. My calc line is Cin -1. There is a strong trend that is 75-36 ATS against Cinci for being a road fav off a blowout loss. I am not going to belabor the stats but these 2 teams are nearly identical and Mia should not be getting 3 points at home vs Cinci on a short week.

2* NYJ over N.O.
Play at +6 or better
I am waiting to see if can get +7

[roccodean]

2* NYJ +7 over N.O. (Possible 3* upgrade)
Play at +6 or better
I am backing the Jets again. My calculated line is NO -4 so getting 6+ is great value. The Saints cannot run and cannot stop the run (28th in run offense and 32nd in run D) and that is the Jets specialty (1st in Run D). The Jets pass D is solid also (10th in YPPA). I have a great 78-38 ATS trend favoring the Jets bc they are dogs off a blowout loss. I think the Jets have a great chance at an upset and took the money line also.

1* Minn +10.5 over Dallas (possible 2* upgrade)
Play at +10 or better
Why is Dall a double digit favorite? They are 23rd in running offense and 12th and passing offense and they are terrible defensively at 25th vs the run and 24th vs the pass. Minn is 6th in YPR and will be able to eat up the clock. I think after Dallas got their heart broke last week they will be in for a let down. Dallas is +9 in turnovers (2nd in the league) which won't last. My calc line is Dal -8.5...too many points in this one.

[roccodean]

2* NYJ +7 over N.O. (Possible 3* upgrade)
Play at +6 or better
I am backing the Jets again. My calculated line is NO -4 so getting 6+ is great value. The Saints cannot run and cannot stop the run (28th in run offense and 32nd in run D) and that is the Jets specialty (1st in Run D). The Jets pass D is solid also (10th in YPPA). I have a great 78-38 ATS trend favoring the Jets bc they are dogs off a blowout loss. I think the Jets have a great chance at an upset and took the money line also.

1* Minn +10.5 over Dallas (possible 2* upgrade)
Play at +10 or better
Why is Dall a double digit favorite? They are 23rd in running offense and 12th and passing offense and they are terrible defensively at 25th vs the run and 24th vs the pass. Minn is 6th in YPR and will be able to eat up the clock. I think after Dallas got their heart broke last week they will be in for a let down. Dallas is +9 in turnovers (2nd in the league) which won't last. My calc line is Dal -8.5...too many points in this one.

[LeRoy]

good start with Miami play lets sweep this week

[roccodean]

dogs will be barking

[roccodean]

woof woof