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Huguenin: Projecting The Field of 68

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  • Huguenin: Projecting The Field of 68

    Selection Sunday" is March 13, which means we're just a bit more than two weeks away. Here is our fifth look at how we think the 68-team NCAA tournament field will look when it is unveiled that day.

    It's important to note that this is a projection of how teams are going to finish, not how the field would look if it were decided today.

    We will update this projection more frequently beginning Monday.

    Teams are grouped by projected seed. At the bottom is a breakdown by league of the number of projected bids and some information on the makeup of the field, the selection committee and the sites.

    Remember that this is the first season of a 68-team field. There will be four play-in games this season: two involving teams that will be No. 12 seeds and two involving teams that will be No. 16 seeds. That's why there are six teams at the Nos. 12 and 16 seedings.

    (Note: Asterisked teams must win their conference titles to receive an NCAA bid. RPI figures are through Wednesday's games and come from collegerpi.com.)


    Rivals.com Projected NCAA Field of 68

    No. 1s
    1. Ohio State
    2. Pittsburgh
    3. Duke
    4. Texas
    BUZZ: Ohio State has one tough game remaining, at home against Wisconsin in the regular-season finale on March 6. Pittsburgh leads the Big East race by two games. The Panthers are coming off a one-point loss at St. John's and play host to West Virginia tonight. Duke pounded Temple last night, its seventh consecutive victory since falling at St. John's. The Blue Devils play at a desperate Virginia Tech team on Saturday. Texas leads the Big 12 by a game over Kansas, and the Longhorns won in Lawrence in the teams' lone regular-season meeting.

    No. 2s
    5. San Diego State
    6. Georgetown
    7. Kansas
    8. Notre Dame
    BUZZ: San Diego State's only loss came at BYU on Jan. 26. The Aztecs get a chance for revenge when Jimmer Fredette and the Cougars come calling Saturday. Georgetown fell at home to Cincinnati on Wednesday, and the Hoyas close with games against Syracuse (home) on Saturday and Cincinnati (road) on March 5. After a gimme against Oklahoma on Saturday, Kansas closes the regular season with games against Texas A&M and Missouri. Notre Dame is second in the Big East but still has games left against Villanova and Connecticut, as well as Seton Hall.

    No. 3s
    9. BYU
    10. Purdue
    11. Syracuse
    12. Connecticut
    BUZZ: BYU has lost just once since Dec. 18 and plays at San Diego State on Saturday night; the Cougars won the first matchup at home. Purdue has won five in a row and has two big ones upcoming: Saturday at Michigan State and Tuesday vs. Illinois. Syracuse has a shot at a double-bye in the Big East tourney, but the Orange almost certainly have to beat Georgetown on Saturday for those hopes to remain alive. UConn plays host to Marquette tonight, part of a brutal closing stretch for the Huskies; they play Cincinnati, West Virginia and Notre Dame (with only the game against the Irish at home) after they face Marquette.

    No. 4s
    13. Florida
    14. Louisville
    15. Wisconsin
    16. North Carolina
    BUZZ: Florida is tied with Alabama for the SEC regular-season lead, but the Gators have a tough closing stretch: vs. Georgia, at Kentucky, vs. Alabama and at Vanderbilt. Louisville has seven top-50 wins, but a lack of "good" road wins could hurt the Cardinals' seeding. Wisconsin banked-in a 3-pointer at the buzzer to win at Michigan on Wednesday night. It was the Badgers' 12th win against a team in the RPI top 100. UNC has won nine of its past 10, but the Heels will be tested down the stretch, with games against Maryland, Florida State and Duke.

    No. 5s
    17. Villanova
    18. Vanderbilt
    19. Texas A&M
    20. Arizona
    BUZZ: Villanova is fading a bit, having lost three of five, and coach Jay Wright has to be worried about the closing stretch: vs. St. John's, at Notre Dame and at Pitt. Vandy fell at home to Tennessee on Tuesday, meaning the Vols swept the season series. The Commodores still have a solid chance to finish second in the SEC East and have games remaining against division foes Kentucky and Florida. Texas A&M has followed up a three-game losing streak with a five-game winning streak, but the next two are on the road, against Baylor and Kansas. Arizona has won eight in a row and has a tough road stretch this weekend when it plays USC and UCLA. The Wildcats have just two top-50 wins, making the UCLA game extra important.

    No. 6s
    21. Missouri
    22. St. John's
    23. Kentucky
    24. Xavier
    BUZZ: Missouri toyed with Baylor on Wednesday night to remain within striking distance of third place in the Big 12. Mizzou plays its next two on the road -- Kansas State and Nebraska -- and the Tigers are just 2-5 in true road games this season. St. John's has won five in a row and three of those victims were top-50 teams. The Red Storm's final tough regular-season game is Saturday at Villanova. Kentucky lost for the sixth time in SEC play Wednesday, falling at Arkansas in overtime. All six losses have come on the road, and UK is 3-7 in true road games this season. Xavier has won six in a row and leads the A-10 race by a game over Temple; the Musketeers beat the Owls in the lone regular-season meeting.

    No. 7s
    25. Temple
    26. West Virginia
    27. George Mason
    28. Florida State
    BUZZ: Temple's eight-game winning streak ended Wednesday night at Duke, but the Owls look good for at least second place in the A-10. WVU is coming off an impressive home win over Notre Dame, which was its sixth over a top-50 team. The Mountaineers are at Pitt tonight and also have games remaining against UConn and Louisville as well as Rutgers. George Mason needs one more win to lock up the Colonial regular-season title. The Patriots have won 13 in a row, and seven of those were on the road. FSU fell hard at Maryland on Wednesday night, and those who said F Chris Singleton's loss would be difficult to overcome were proved correct. Saturday's visit from Miami is a dangerous one.

    No. 8s
    29. Old Dominion
    30. Washington
    31. UNLV
    32. Cincinnati
    BUZZ: ODU has won eight of nine and is in great shape to finish second in the Colonial -- assuming the Monarchs beat visiting James Madison tonight. Washington has won four of five, with the only loss a controversial one-point decision at Arizona. The Huskies finish up the regular season with three key home games: Washington State, UCLA and USC. UNLV survived poor free throw shooting to win in overtime at New Mexico on Wednesday. The Runnin' Rebels finish the regular season with two eminently winnable games -- Wyoming and Utah. Cincinnati got a big win Wednesday night at Georgetown. The Bearcats now have four top-50 wins, but the closing stretch is brutal: vs. UConn, at Marquette and vs. Georgetown.

    No. 9s
    33. Kansas State
    34. UCLA
    35. Marquette
    36. Michigan State
    BUZZ: K-State has won five of six after Wednesday night's gritty win at Nebraska. The Wildcats have two huge games upcoming: Saturday vs. Missouri and Monday at Texas. UCLA plays host to Arizona on Saturday, and a win in that one would go a long way toward nailing down an NCAA bid. Marquette looks to be No. 11 among Big East teams hoping for a bid. The Golden Eagles have three top-50 wins, but they also have a lot of losses (11) and a tough closing stretch. Tonight's game at UConn is huge. Michigan State has won three of four to put itself back in the NCAA mix. The Spartans have played the fifth-toughest schedule in the nation and have Purdue coming in for a big one Saturday.

    No. 10s
    37. Utah State
    38. Memphis
    39. Illinois
    40. Alabama
    BUZZ: Utah State got a big victory last Saturday, when it turned it on in the second half to down host Saint Mary's. Still, the Aggies would feel a heck of lot more comfortable on "Selection Sunday" if they win the WAC tourney. Memphis is in a three-way tie for the C-USA lead, but the Tigers have a big one Saturday when they play at UTEP. Illinois has lost three of its past four, but the Illini still have four top-50 wins. Alabama has a great shot at winning the SEC's regular-season title, but they have just three top-100 wins and played a pitiful non-conference schedule. The Tide likely need to win the regular-season crown to have a legit shot at an at-large bid heading into the SEC tourney.

    No. 11s
    41. Tennessee
    42. Saint Mary's
    43. Georgia
    44. Clemson
    BUZZ: Tennessee got a huge win Tuesday at Vanderbilt, giving them a season sweep of the Commodores. The Vols have seven top-50 wins and have played the nation's toughest schedule. Saint Mary's is another team with a big game tonight, as they play host to Gonzaga with first place in the West Coast Conference on the line. Georgia plays at Florida tonight, and the Bulldogs have a legit shot at finishing second in the SEC East even if they lose. Clemson has just one top-50 win -- and it's over No. 50 Boston College. In short, Clemson needs to boost its resume.

    No. 12s
    45. Richmond
    46. Butler
    47. Southern Miss
    48. Minnesota
    49. Boston College
    50. Colorado State
    BUZZ: Richmond owns a win over Purdue, but the Spiders still are in a tenuous position. They still have work to do. Butler looked to be dead in the water, but the Bulldogs have won six in a row to get back in the hunt in the Horizon League; plus, they swept first-place Cleveland State this season. Southern Miss has just one top-50 win but is tied for the C-USA lead. They have an important game Saturday at UCF and Wednesday at home vs. UAB. Minnesota was really good early in the season, but the Golden Gophers have been really bad of late; they've lost six of their past seven and face a must-win Saturday when Michigan comes calling. Boston College fell at home to Miami last night, and that is not good. The Eagles barely are hanging on and have some work to do. Colorado State has a couple of bad losses and needs some more wins.

    No. 13s
    51. Missouri State*
    52. Belmont*
    53. Princeton*
    54. College of Charleston*
    BUZZ: Missouri State plays host to Wichita State on Saturday, with the Missouri Valley regular-season title going to the winner. Missouri State won at Wichita earlier this season. Belmont had clinched the Atlantic Sun title; the Bruins have lost four games, including two to Tennessee. Princeton has five Ivy League games left, and the final three are on the road. Charleston has clinched the Southern Conference regular-season title, and the Cougars are seeking their first NCAA bid since 1999.

    No. 14s
    55. Oakland*
    56. Vermont*
    57. Fairfield*
    58. Kent State*
    BUZZ: Oakland already has clinched the Summit title and is looking for its third NCAA bid in seven seasons. Vermont has won the America East regular-season title and would host the league tourney final if it is in it. Fairfield has won 10 of its past 11 and already has clinched the MAAC regular-season crown. Kent State leads the MAC race and is the only league team whose RPI is better than 100th.

    No. 15s
    59. Bucknell*
    60. Long Island*
    61. Coastal Carolina*
    62. Murray State*
    BUZZ: Bucknell already has clinched the Patriot League regular-season title, which means it will play every league tourney game at home. LIU already has clinched the Northeast title, and it also is guaranteed to play every conference tourney game at home. Coastal Carolina has clinched the Big South, and it, too, would play every league tourney game at home. But Coastal has lost two key players in the past month and is fading a bit. Murray State plays Morehead State tonight with the Ohio Valley lead on the line.

    No. 16s
    63. Long Beach St.*
    64. Montana*
    65. Florida Atlantic*
    66. Texas Southern*
    67. McNeese State*
    68. Morgan State*
    BUZZ: The move to a 68-team field means four conference champs are going to end up in play-in games. If Long Beach State beats second-place Cal Poly tonight, the 49ers win the Big West regular-season title. Montana has a half-game lead over Northern Colorado in the Big Sky; those teams split their regular-season series. FAU has a two-game lead in the Sun Belt and a home win tonight over Troy clinched the regular-season title for the Owls. Texas Southern has a three-game lead in the SWAC and swept second-place Jackson State. McNeese State is the pick to win the Southland, and 10 of the league's 12 teams are within three games of the lead. Morgan State, aiming for its third consecutive NCAA bid, plays its final three MEAC games on the road.

    BREAKDOWN BY LEAGUE
    11: Big East
    6: Big Ten, SEC
    5: ACC, Big 12
    4: Mountain West
    3: Atlantic 10, Pac-10
    2: Colonial, Conference USA
    1: America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, Metro Atlantic, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern Athletic, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern Athletic, Summit, Sun Belt, West Coast, Western Athletic (21)

    SOME NOTES ON THE MAKEUP OF THE FIELD
    The NCAA uses an "S curve," meaning it ranks all 68 teams in order 1-68, then places them in regions under the theory the top No. 1 seed would have the worst No. 2 seed in its bracket, the worst No. 1 seed would have the top No. 2 seed, etc. The balancing of the regions is the most important factor in seeding the tournament.
    As far as other rules go, teams from the same conference hopefully won't meet until a regional final, but the NCAA has relaxed that because some conferences have six and seven bids (it's even permissible for an intraconference matchup in the second round, though that is to be avoided whenever possible). But the first three teams selected from a given conference must be in different regions.
    Higher-seeded teams should be placed as close to home as possible. No team may play on its home floor, but most sites are "neutral courts" anyway.
    Teams can move up or down a spot or two in the "S-curve," maybe even a seed, to preserve other principles.
    Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith is the chairman of the 10-member NCAA Tournament Selection Committee this season. He is one of four members with a "Big Six" affiliation, joining Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe, Connecticut AD Jeff Hathaway and Wake Forest AD Ron Wellman. The other six members: Utah State AD Scott Barnes, Xavier AD Mike Bobinski, Big Sky commissioner Doug Fullerton, Texas-San Antonio AD Lynn Hickey, UC Riverside AD Stan Morrison and SMU AD Steve Orsini. Hickey is the second woman to serve on the committee, following Charlotte AD Judy Rose (1999-2003).

    TOURNAMENT DATES
    March 15: Four play-in games in Dayton, Ohio
    First and second rounds
    March 17 and 19: Denver, Tampa, Tucson, Ariz., and Washington, D.C.
    March 18 and 20: Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland and Tulsa, Okla.
    Regional semifinals and final
    March 24 and 26: Anaheim, Calif., and New Orleans.
    March 25 and 27: Newark, N.J., and San Antonio
    Final Four
    April 2 and 4: Reliant Stadium, Houston
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
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