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11/01/03 9:20 ET
by Russ Culver
Special to MajorStats
Denver has played five teams with losing records this year and beaten all five of them by an average score of 27-13. They have faced three teams with winning records (Kansas City, Minnesota and Baltimore) and lost all three, by an average score of 26-16. New England has played three teams with winning marks this season (Philadelphia, Tennessee and Miami) and won all three, by an average score of 29-18. Two of the three teams that beat the Broncos (Pittsburgh and Baltimore) utilize a 3-4 defense, which New England also plays. Denver scored 17 and 6 points in those two games gaining only 242 and 194 yards, their lowest two offensive outputs of the year. The Patriots have the best pass defense in the NFL, holding opposing quarterbacks to a rating of 59.8. After surrendering 15 runs of 20 yards or more last year, they have been gashed only once this season, a 23 yard run at Washington on September 28 by Trung Canidate, one of the fastest backs in the NFL. (The Broncos have given up seven runs of 20 yards or more this season.) Since losing their opener at Buffalo, New England has allowed only six touchdowns in their opponents' 20 trips inside the red zone. In their last three contests, they have allowed only one touchdown. They have given up only three touchdown passes this year, lowest in the league. (Denver has allowed nine.) Since '01 the Patriots are 11-6 in games decided by seven points or less, 6-1 in games decided by three points or less and 6-0 in overtime games.
Baltimore is still hailed as a great defensive team, but they were quite ordinary versus the pass last year and they haven't done anything to fix things this season. Last year they gave up over 22 points a game due to a porous pass defense that was burned for 224 yards a game, 6th from the bottom of the NFL statistically. In their seven games this season they have gone up against Tommy Maddux, Kelly Holcomb, Drew Brees, Trent Green, Jeff Blake, Jon Kitna and Danny Kanell. Those seven quarterbacks have an average QB rating of 72.4. The league average is usually between 78 and 82, which means the Ravens have faced below average passes thus far this year. In spite of that, they have given up 10 touchdown passes (19th in the league) and 18.9 points per contest, only 13th best in the NFL. With cornerbacks Corey Fuller and Tom Knight nursing leg injuries (Fuller may not even play), the Ravens shape up to be a weak favorite. If you watch this game you may be entertained by Jacksonville's starting defensive tackles, John Henderson and Marcus Stroud. They were the Jaguars first round draft picks in '01 and '02 and together, they represent the most underrated DT's in the league. Both are well over 300 pounds and they are the primary reason Jacksonville is allowing only 3.2 yards per rush, fourth best in the league (and better than the 3.5 ypr being surrendered by the more heralded Ravens).
In their season opener, Pittsburgh took on Kyle Boller in his first NFL game ever, jumped out to a big early lead and romped past the Ravens 34-15. Since then they have played four other winning teams (Kansas City, Tennessee, Denver and St. Louis) and lost all four by an average score of 30-17. Including last year's playoffs, the Steelers have allowed 30 or more points in 12 of their last 25 games. Opposing quarterbacks have a rating of 89.5 against them this year, sixth worst in the league. Their offense? Last week against the Rams, Pittsburgh didn't convert their first third down opportunity until there was 1:14 left in the fourth quarter. On the season, they have converted only 31 of 96 third downs, 27th in the NFL. In their last four games Tommy Maddux has thrown two touchdowns and seven interceptions. He has thrown 239 passes this season and only 10 of them have gone for more than 25 yards.
I'm always tinkering with numbers and most of the time it becomes redundant-a continuing confirmation of what was already apparent from earlier research. However, sooner or later I stumble upon something worth keeping. That was true a few years ago when I started to track quarterback ratings. These ratings were mostly considered to be too arcane to be taken seriously in the mid-nineties, but I was intrigued when I saw a strong correlation between the QB ratings and my subjective opinions of most quarterbacks. I do feel the QB ratings put a little too much emphasis on touchdown passes. A TD pass of less than 10 yards is really no big accomplishment to me, but all TD passes are significant in the QB rating. But overall, it is a valuable statistical tool. And the mainstream media has now latched on to this stat and it is a regular part of their coverage of the NFL. But still unappreciated is the obvious flip-side of the QB rating-defensive QB ratings, which is computed by treating a team's defensive stats as though they were accumulated by one generic quarterback. That rating, therefore, tells us what a team's defense is doing to stop opposing quarterbacks and it stands to reason that if QB ratings are a good handicapping tool, then a team's defensive rating would also be useful. And that has indeed been the case for me. I don't put too much emphasis on any QB ratings until about the halfway point of the season, as strength of schedule can greatly skewer early results. For example, Dallas had one of the best defensive QB ratings through their first six games but they went up against Doug Johnson, Kerry Collins behind an injured offensive line, Vinny Testaverde, Jeff Blake, Donavan McNabb and Joey Harrington. Nonetheless, this stat continues to bear watching, especially if you play totals. And its value in finding pointspread plays shouldn't be ignored. Here are the best and worst 10 teams at slowing down the passing game according to defensive QB ratings:
Top 10
New England 59.8
Tampa Bay 60.5
Dallas 61.8
Kansas City 62.2
Minnesota 64.4
Miami 65.6
Cleveland 67.9
Seattle 70.2
Buffalo 70.9
New York Giants 72.0
Bottom 10
Washington 86.5
Carolina 86.9
New Orleans 88.0
Jacksonville 88.2
Pittsburgh 89.5
Arizona 93.1
Houston 95.6
San Diego 96.1
Detroit 96.8
Atlanta 105.7
Inspection of these lists should reveal the obvious; teams that have the best defensive QB ratings have been good bets, those that performed poorly against opposing quarterbacks were bad bets overall. The 10 best teams are currently a combined plus 15 games over .500 against the spread, the 10 worst teams are minus16. Now I am aware of the obvious flaws involved in "back-fill" handicapping. It's easy to unearth profitable trends when rifling through football stats because teams that are beating the pointspread are generally going to appear at the top of most catagories and bad pointspread performers will inevitably be at the bottom. But even with that in mind, quarterback ratings hold up well when compared to other NFL stats. Here are the pointspread results of some other common defensive statistical catagories thus far this season:
YARDS PER RUSH ALLOWED:
Best 10 teams +7 Against The Spread
Worst 10 teams -8 ATS
YARDS PER PASS ATTEMPT ALLOWED:
Best 10 teams +4 ATS
Worst 10 teams -14 ATS
TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED:
Best 10 teams +0 ATS
Worst 10 teams -4 ATS
YARDS PER PLAY ALLOWED:
Best 10 teams +2 ATS
Worst 10 teams -3 ATS
The best 10 teams in these catagores barely beat the spread and the worst 10 were consistent losers against the line. But defensive quarterback ratings have provided a much better reading on which teams are likely to cover (and not cover) and I feel this is one stat that is well worth tracking.
Here are my plays this week:
Jacksonville Jaguars
Indianapolis Colts
New Orleans Saints
Seattle Seahawks
St. Louis Rams
New England Patriots
New York Giants-New York Jets OVER
Carolina Panthers-Houston Texans OVER
Philadelphia Eagles-Atlanta Falcons UNDER
St. Louis Rams-San Francisco 49'ers OVER
New England Patriots-Denver Broncos UNDER
by Russ Culver
Special to MajorStats
Denver has played five teams with losing records this year and beaten all five of them by an average score of 27-13. They have faced three teams with winning records (Kansas City, Minnesota and Baltimore) and lost all three, by an average score of 26-16. New England has played three teams with winning marks this season (Philadelphia, Tennessee and Miami) and won all three, by an average score of 29-18. Two of the three teams that beat the Broncos (Pittsburgh and Baltimore) utilize a 3-4 defense, which New England also plays. Denver scored 17 and 6 points in those two games gaining only 242 and 194 yards, their lowest two offensive outputs of the year. The Patriots have the best pass defense in the NFL, holding opposing quarterbacks to a rating of 59.8. After surrendering 15 runs of 20 yards or more last year, they have been gashed only once this season, a 23 yard run at Washington on September 28 by Trung Canidate, one of the fastest backs in the NFL. (The Broncos have given up seven runs of 20 yards or more this season.) Since losing their opener at Buffalo, New England has allowed only six touchdowns in their opponents' 20 trips inside the red zone. In their last three contests, they have allowed only one touchdown. They have given up only three touchdown passes this year, lowest in the league. (Denver has allowed nine.) Since '01 the Patriots are 11-6 in games decided by seven points or less, 6-1 in games decided by three points or less and 6-0 in overtime games.
Baltimore is still hailed as a great defensive team, but they were quite ordinary versus the pass last year and they haven't done anything to fix things this season. Last year they gave up over 22 points a game due to a porous pass defense that was burned for 224 yards a game, 6th from the bottom of the NFL statistically. In their seven games this season they have gone up against Tommy Maddux, Kelly Holcomb, Drew Brees, Trent Green, Jeff Blake, Jon Kitna and Danny Kanell. Those seven quarterbacks have an average QB rating of 72.4. The league average is usually between 78 and 82, which means the Ravens have faced below average passes thus far this year. In spite of that, they have given up 10 touchdown passes (19th in the league) and 18.9 points per contest, only 13th best in the NFL. With cornerbacks Corey Fuller and Tom Knight nursing leg injuries (Fuller may not even play), the Ravens shape up to be a weak favorite. If you watch this game you may be entertained by Jacksonville's starting defensive tackles, John Henderson and Marcus Stroud. They were the Jaguars first round draft picks in '01 and '02 and together, they represent the most underrated DT's in the league. Both are well over 300 pounds and they are the primary reason Jacksonville is allowing only 3.2 yards per rush, fourth best in the league (and better than the 3.5 ypr being surrendered by the more heralded Ravens).
In their season opener, Pittsburgh took on Kyle Boller in his first NFL game ever, jumped out to a big early lead and romped past the Ravens 34-15. Since then they have played four other winning teams (Kansas City, Tennessee, Denver and St. Louis) and lost all four by an average score of 30-17. Including last year's playoffs, the Steelers have allowed 30 or more points in 12 of their last 25 games. Opposing quarterbacks have a rating of 89.5 against them this year, sixth worst in the league. Their offense? Last week against the Rams, Pittsburgh didn't convert their first third down opportunity until there was 1:14 left in the fourth quarter. On the season, they have converted only 31 of 96 third downs, 27th in the NFL. In their last four games Tommy Maddux has thrown two touchdowns and seven interceptions. He has thrown 239 passes this season and only 10 of them have gone for more than 25 yards.
I'm always tinkering with numbers and most of the time it becomes redundant-a continuing confirmation of what was already apparent from earlier research. However, sooner or later I stumble upon something worth keeping. That was true a few years ago when I started to track quarterback ratings. These ratings were mostly considered to be too arcane to be taken seriously in the mid-nineties, but I was intrigued when I saw a strong correlation between the QB ratings and my subjective opinions of most quarterbacks. I do feel the QB ratings put a little too much emphasis on touchdown passes. A TD pass of less than 10 yards is really no big accomplishment to me, but all TD passes are significant in the QB rating. But overall, it is a valuable statistical tool. And the mainstream media has now latched on to this stat and it is a regular part of their coverage of the NFL. But still unappreciated is the obvious flip-side of the QB rating-defensive QB ratings, which is computed by treating a team's defensive stats as though they were accumulated by one generic quarterback. That rating, therefore, tells us what a team's defense is doing to stop opposing quarterbacks and it stands to reason that if QB ratings are a good handicapping tool, then a team's defensive rating would also be useful. And that has indeed been the case for me. I don't put too much emphasis on any QB ratings until about the halfway point of the season, as strength of schedule can greatly skewer early results. For example, Dallas had one of the best defensive QB ratings through their first six games but they went up against Doug Johnson, Kerry Collins behind an injured offensive line, Vinny Testaverde, Jeff Blake, Donavan McNabb and Joey Harrington. Nonetheless, this stat continues to bear watching, especially if you play totals. And its value in finding pointspread plays shouldn't be ignored. Here are the best and worst 10 teams at slowing down the passing game according to defensive QB ratings:
Top 10
New England 59.8
Tampa Bay 60.5
Dallas 61.8
Kansas City 62.2
Minnesota 64.4
Miami 65.6
Cleveland 67.9
Seattle 70.2
Buffalo 70.9
New York Giants 72.0
Bottom 10
Washington 86.5
Carolina 86.9
New Orleans 88.0
Jacksonville 88.2
Pittsburgh 89.5
Arizona 93.1
Houston 95.6
San Diego 96.1
Detroit 96.8
Atlanta 105.7
Inspection of these lists should reveal the obvious; teams that have the best defensive QB ratings have been good bets, those that performed poorly against opposing quarterbacks were bad bets overall. The 10 best teams are currently a combined plus 15 games over .500 against the spread, the 10 worst teams are minus16. Now I am aware of the obvious flaws involved in "back-fill" handicapping. It's easy to unearth profitable trends when rifling through football stats because teams that are beating the pointspread are generally going to appear at the top of most catagories and bad pointspread performers will inevitably be at the bottom. But even with that in mind, quarterback ratings hold up well when compared to other NFL stats. Here are the pointspread results of some other common defensive statistical catagories thus far this season:
YARDS PER RUSH ALLOWED:
Best 10 teams +7 Against The Spread
Worst 10 teams -8 ATS
YARDS PER PASS ATTEMPT ALLOWED:
Best 10 teams +4 ATS
Worst 10 teams -14 ATS
TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED:
Best 10 teams +0 ATS
Worst 10 teams -4 ATS
YARDS PER PLAY ALLOWED:
Best 10 teams +2 ATS
Worst 10 teams -3 ATS
The best 10 teams in these catagores barely beat the spread and the worst 10 were consistent losers against the line. But defensive quarterback ratings have provided a much better reading on which teams are likely to cover (and not cover) and I feel this is one stat that is well worth tracking.
Here are my plays this week:
Jacksonville Jaguars
Indianapolis Colts
New Orleans Saints
Seattle Seahawks
St. Louis Rams
New England Patriots
New York Giants-New York Jets OVER
Carolina Panthers-Houston Texans OVER
Philadelphia Eagles-Atlanta Falcons UNDER
St. Louis Rams-San Francisco 49'ers OVER
New England Patriots-Denver Broncos UNDER