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DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH LINESMAKER NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S WILDCARD GAMES
Time to take a break from the college bowls and think about pro football. The sharps (professional wagerers in Nevada) haven't been very happy with their postseason results yet in the colleges. They're GLAD to have this break!
You probably noticed that many of the biggest early movers in the colleges didn't do well this year. That was particularly true on bowl totals. The games that jumped a few points up didn't go Over. The big Under moves, like Penn State/USC, saw a ton of scoring. The most popular team side play right out of the gate was Georgia Tech. They never had a chance.
Sharps historically have done very well in the NFL Playoffs. They're looking for a chance to make some scores in the four games this weekend.
Unfortunately, the schedule didn't really line up in their wheelhouse. Historically, squares (the general public) bet on home favorites and Overs in the playoffs. Sharps come back against those line moves and take dogs and Unders. The public usually loses (not always in the playoffs, but in most years), so the sharps earn a nice profit in the month of January as a general rule. In this first week though, there are NO home favorites!
It wasn't obvious who the squares were going to bet on in any of the games, so sharps took early position where they thought they had an edge against the opener. If the public creates additional opportunities over the weekend, the sharps will step in with more authority. It's very important that you watch for line moves this weekend with that in mind. Any initial surge is likely to come from the public...with any reversals representing sharp sentiment. That's how you'll know for sure on game day mornings how the sharps are betting.
Here's what's happened so far...
ATLANTA AT ARIZONA:
The sharps took Arizona at the opener of +2½, and at +2 and +1½ as well. The line is sitting at +1 in most places as I write this. The fact that the line didn't to up to a field goal represents fairly strong sentiment for the Cardinals to at least keep it close. I've told you that often. If a game moves AWAY from a critical number, it's a big deal. The favorite hasn't flipped here though...so it's not like the sharps are in love with Kurt Warner and the Cards. They liked having quarterback experience, home field, and a couple of points. They may have also figured that the public would be thinking the say way when they bet on Saturday...so they took what they could get on the opener. The public isn't likely to pound a rookie quarterback for a road favorite that isn't a public team. "Get in early"at the best number was the general thought process.
So, Arizona (+) would be the sharp side here. Just remember that the money kind of dried up once the line came down to +1. I think it would take a line movement from public money to get the sharps involved any further. The total hasn't moved from 51 in a climate controlled environment. Past history would suggest that the public will bet the Over (because they always bet the Over unless it's a blizzard), with the sharps coming in on Under 52 or more if the line goes up from public money.
INDIANAPOLIS AT SAN DIEGO:
Both of these are public teams, so it's hard to know who the squares will be betting all day Saturday. Had each been a home favorite, their would have been a 1-2 point tax (maybe 3) for the honor of betting the Colts and Chargers. With them playing each other, that cancels out. San Diego opened as a one-point favorite...but that got bet to Indy -1 fairly quickly. Some places have seen some buy back, so we're looking at pick-em or Indianapolis -1 in most places as I write this. Overtime games can't end in a tie, so +1 to -1 isn't much of a move.
Who do the sharps like? I'm getting mixed signals in my conversations with respected bettors. This is truly a game where the public will decide if the sharps get involved. If there is a bandwagon effect from squares on game day, then sharps will go against the tide in what they truly see as a toss-up. If that doesn't happen, this may just be a dead spot in the schedule. Sharps will look for quarter, first half, second half, or player proposition possibilities rather than the full game. Sharps look everywhere for an edge!
The Colts have played several games that went right down to the wire. Only a turnover implosion from one team or the other would likely prevent that here. The total hasn't moved yet in this game either. I have some thoughts I'll be sharing with my clients in this one. It will be based on my own handicapping rather than sharp sentiment.
BALTIMORE AT MIAMI:
The sharps hit Baltimore pretty aggressively here as we move to the Sunday games. The line opened at Baltimore -3, and the sportsbooks kept increasing the juice (vigorish) as sharp money was very one sided on the Ravens. It went to -120, -130, higher in spots...then finally the line pushed up to -3½ and didn't come back down again. You know what that means. We've got a game moving away from a critical number with no resistance. The squares like Baltimore and like them strong.
Why the sentiment? The general thought is that Miami is a pretender from a very weak division. This is a team that kept winning ugly against a very soft schedule all season. If you have trouble scoring points vs. a soft schedule, how are you going to beat Baltimore? Miami couldn't do that on this field during the regular season. Sharps expect the Ravens defense to dominate the flow of the game this time around too. Based on all evidence before the weekend arrived, Baltimore is the strongest sharp play this weekend. Just remember that we're talking about real strength at the opener of -3. You probably won't get to play that line on Sunday.
PHILADELPHIA AT MINNESOTA:
The second most popular play of the weekend for the sharps was Philadelphia. This is basically a replay of the Baltimore situation in terms of how the money is coming in. It just started a half point lower. Philadelphia opened at -2½...went to -3...and is now seeing the vigorish rise past -120 up to -130. It's going to cost you to lay points with the Eagles in the weekend finale. You'll either be laying 3½ or a very high vigorish on -3.
In this particular game, the sharps were concerned with public money. The public is much more likely to bet on Donovan McNabb at a cheap price than rookie Joe Flacco of Baltimore. The closest thing to a public team at an appealing price in the minds of squares would be Philadelphia at -3 over Minnesota. Indy/San Diego has two public teams playing each other. The other two games don't feature teams who have caught the public's fancy yet. Philly was likely to be a big public play, so the sharps made sure they got in quickly at -2½ and at -3 (-110).
Really the ONLY total move of note this weekend was in this game. The opener of 43½ has fallen to 41½ because of the caliber of the two defenses...and that fact that both quarterbacks have struggled vs. good defenses. McNabb's been inconsistent at best when facing tough opponents. The Vikings really don't have any great options when stepping up in class themselves. Totals guys are looking for a defensive-minded game...with the knowledge that McNabb knows how to run clock with a lead too.
All told, it's a fairly quiet opening salvo from the sharps. We could see more intensity closer to kickoff if there is public money to fade. If not, the sharps may come out firing next week when higher quality teams are on the field.
WITH LINESMAKER NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S WILDCARD GAMES
Time to take a break from the college bowls and think about pro football. The sharps (professional wagerers in Nevada) haven't been very happy with their postseason results yet in the colleges. They're GLAD to have this break!
You probably noticed that many of the biggest early movers in the colleges didn't do well this year. That was particularly true on bowl totals. The games that jumped a few points up didn't go Over. The big Under moves, like Penn State/USC, saw a ton of scoring. The most popular team side play right out of the gate was Georgia Tech. They never had a chance.
Sharps historically have done very well in the NFL Playoffs. They're looking for a chance to make some scores in the four games this weekend.
Unfortunately, the schedule didn't really line up in their wheelhouse. Historically, squares (the general public) bet on home favorites and Overs in the playoffs. Sharps come back against those line moves and take dogs and Unders. The public usually loses (not always in the playoffs, but in most years), so the sharps earn a nice profit in the month of January as a general rule. In this first week though, there are NO home favorites!
It wasn't obvious who the squares were going to bet on in any of the games, so sharps took early position where they thought they had an edge against the opener. If the public creates additional opportunities over the weekend, the sharps will step in with more authority. It's very important that you watch for line moves this weekend with that in mind. Any initial surge is likely to come from the public...with any reversals representing sharp sentiment. That's how you'll know for sure on game day mornings how the sharps are betting.
Here's what's happened so far...
ATLANTA AT ARIZONA:
The sharps took Arizona at the opener of +2½, and at +2 and +1½ as well. The line is sitting at +1 in most places as I write this. The fact that the line didn't to up to a field goal represents fairly strong sentiment for the Cardinals to at least keep it close. I've told you that often. If a game moves AWAY from a critical number, it's a big deal. The favorite hasn't flipped here though...so it's not like the sharps are in love with Kurt Warner and the Cards. They liked having quarterback experience, home field, and a couple of points. They may have also figured that the public would be thinking the say way when they bet on Saturday...so they took what they could get on the opener. The public isn't likely to pound a rookie quarterback for a road favorite that isn't a public team. "Get in early"at the best number was the general thought process.
So, Arizona (+) would be the sharp side here. Just remember that the money kind of dried up once the line came down to +1. I think it would take a line movement from public money to get the sharps involved any further. The total hasn't moved from 51 in a climate controlled environment. Past history would suggest that the public will bet the Over (because they always bet the Over unless it's a blizzard), with the sharps coming in on Under 52 or more if the line goes up from public money.
INDIANAPOLIS AT SAN DIEGO:
Both of these are public teams, so it's hard to know who the squares will be betting all day Saturday. Had each been a home favorite, their would have been a 1-2 point tax (maybe 3) for the honor of betting the Colts and Chargers. With them playing each other, that cancels out. San Diego opened as a one-point favorite...but that got bet to Indy -1 fairly quickly. Some places have seen some buy back, so we're looking at pick-em or Indianapolis -1 in most places as I write this. Overtime games can't end in a tie, so +1 to -1 isn't much of a move.
Who do the sharps like? I'm getting mixed signals in my conversations with respected bettors. This is truly a game where the public will decide if the sharps get involved. If there is a bandwagon effect from squares on game day, then sharps will go against the tide in what they truly see as a toss-up. If that doesn't happen, this may just be a dead spot in the schedule. Sharps will look for quarter, first half, second half, or player proposition possibilities rather than the full game. Sharps look everywhere for an edge!
The Colts have played several games that went right down to the wire. Only a turnover implosion from one team or the other would likely prevent that here. The total hasn't moved yet in this game either. I have some thoughts I'll be sharing with my clients in this one. It will be based on my own handicapping rather than sharp sentiment.
BALTIMORE AT MIAMI:
The sharps hit Baltimore pretty aggressively here as we move to the Sunday games. The line opened at Baltimore -3, and the sportsbooks kept increasing the juice (vigorish) as sharp money was very one sided on the Ravens. It went to -120, -130, higher in spots...then finally the line pushed up to -3½ and didn't come back down again. You know what that means. We've got a game moving away from a critical number with no resistance. The squares like Baltimore and like them strong.
Why the sentiment? The general thought is that Miami is a pretender from a very weak division. This is a team that kept winning ugly against a very soft schedule all season. If you have trouble scoring points vs. a soft schedule, how are you going to beat Baltimore? Miami couldn't do that on this field during the regular season. Sharps expect the Ravens defense to dominate the flow of the game this time around too. Based on all evidence before the weekend arrived, Baltimore is the strongest sharp play this weekend. Just remember that we're talking about real strength at the opener of -3. You probably won't get to play that line on Sunday.
PHILADELPHIA AT MINNESOTA:
The second most popular play of the weekend for the sharps was Philadelphia. This is basically a replay of the Baltimore situation in terms of how the money is coming in. It just started a half point lower. Philadelphia opened at -2½...went to -3...and is now seeing the vigorish rise past -120 up to -130. It's going to cost you to lay points with the Eagles in the weekend finale. You'll either be laying 3½ or a very high vigorish on -3.
In this particular game, the sharps were concerned with public money. The public is much more likely to bet on Donovan McNabb at a cheap price than rookie Joe Flacco of Baltimore. The closest thing to a public team at an appealing price in the minds of squares would be Philadelphia at -3 over Minnesota. Indy/San Diego has two public teams playing each other. The other two games don't feature teams who have caught the public's fancy yet. Philly was likely to be a big public play, so the sharps made sure they got in quickly at -2½ and at -3 (-110).
Really the ONLY total move of note this weekend was in this game. The opener of 43½ has fallen to 41½ because of the caliber of the two defenses...and that fact that both quarterbacks have struggled vs. good defenses. McNabb's been inconsistent at best when facing tough opponents. The Vikings really don't have any great options when stepping up in class themselves. Totals guys are looking for a defensive-minded game...with the knowledge that McNabb knows how to run clock with a lead too.
All told, it's a fairly quiet opening salvo from the sharps. We could see more intensity closer to kickoff if there is public money to fade. If not, the sharps may come out firing next week when higher quality teams are on the field.