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DIRECT FROM NEVADA By Linesmaker Nick Bogdanovich
CHRISTMAS WEEK IN NEVADA
Last month I gave you a taste of what Thanksgiving in Nevada is like. Another holiday is upon us, so I wanted to devote this week to describing what Christmas week is like in Las Vegas and Reno.
Along the way, I’ll outline some strategies that sharps (professional wagerers) use to make winning selections in this high profile week.
You could say that the holiday began early this year. Las Vegas had a few inches of snow last week! It was bitterly cold in Reno at the same time. You don’t get too many shots at a white Christmas in these parts. Fun to get a taste.
My clients also started the holiday early thanks to my major release on Arizona (-) vs. Brigham Young in the Las Vegas Bowl. Game day money took the line from Arizona -3 to Arizona -3.5. It didn’t matter as the Cats won 31-21 despite allowing a late touchdown.
The atmosphere for Christmas Week at the sportsbooks depends on what day of the week the holiday falls on. If it’s a Saturday or Sunday with some football scheduled, then the big day is like any other busy time at the casino. The decorations tell you it’s a holiday, but the action suggests it’s your typical big betting day.
This year, Christmas falls on a Thursday…and there are NO football games scheduled!
There is some NBA. I can tell you that the Boston/LA Lakers game Thursday afternoon will have one of the biggest pro basketball handles we’ve ever seen. It’s the best game of any type on TV, and it’s the only show in town!
Clearly the big day itself won’t compare to a football day. The full week though, will be hopping:
CHRISTMAS EVE: Notre Dame heads to the islands to play Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl. Notre Dame is a very popular betting team. People either love them or hate them. I expect that game to get a lot of action. Even though it’s not a major bowl…and Notre Dame had a disappointing season…this spot on the schedule will make this a very popular betting option. I’m definitely planning a strong selection here for my clients. Note that we’ve already seen a big line move here…with Hawaii opening at -2, but Notre Dame sitting at -1.5 as I write this. Is that too much love for the Irish?
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 26TH: The Motor City Bowl doesn’t always get a lot of attention. This year, Central Michigan and Florida Atlantic will have an exclusive TV window in front of a nation STARVED for football! The opening line here of Central -4 jumped to -7 very quickly. It dropped back to minus 6 over the weekend. I’ll have to decide for my clients whether or not to lay the points after so much value has been taken away…or to take the points with the clearly inferior team. This could be a spot where the total appeals to me more than the side.
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 27th: The first really big day of college bowl action has arrived, with SIX teams from BCS conferences squaring off. The day’s matchups are: West Virginia/North Carolina, Wisconsin/Florida State, and Miami of Florida/California. Last Saturday had four games, but mostly with non-BCS teams on the field. I expect this to be a very active college football betting day. There will be a lot of pent up energy from gamblers, and the major conferences are well represented. Imagine a college football Saturday in terms of betting enthusiasm, but with only three games on the board getting all the attention! My clients will be getting a BOWL PARLAY featuring at least two of my strongest releases so far.
SUNDAY DECEMBER 28TH: It’s the final big Sunday of pro football action in the regular season. That’s always a weird day because some games don’t matter to anyone, and some matter A LOT to one or both of the teams on the field. As an oddsmaker, I don’t look forward to this week at all because the sportsbooks are at the mercy of the sharps in many of the games. As a big bettor, I like trying to find the handful of spots that offer monster value. The final Sunday is a player’s market. If you’re a player, find someone who can help you take advantage!
Among the games of interest are: NY Giants/Minnesota, Miami/NY Jets, Dallas/Philadelphia, Carolina/New Orleans, and probably more!
MONDAY DECEMBER 29TH: There won’t be a Monday Night game in the NFL because the league won’t risk having a playoff team dealing with a short preparation week. There are two college bowl games…NC State/Rutgers, and Missouri/Northwestern. We’ve seen early line moves in both games. I’m wondering where the numbers will be sitting once game day arrives. Barring surprises, one of my top plays of the whole college football postseason will be released on this day.
After that, we’re into the next week. I’ll save that for my look at New Year’s in Nevada in next week’s article!
In a nutshell, Christmas Week won’t have the buzz and excitement this year that it’s had in the past in terms of casino traffic (economy) and sportsbook traffic (lighter schedule than we had hoped). But, there will be plenty of great moneymaking opportunities for sharp players. Here are some tips you should consider when trying to handicap next weekend’s games:
*In the colleges, stay up on the news wires. Once the lines have been up for awhile, the single biggest influence for moves is news regarding suspensions or injuries. You can almost assume that the lines are “set” after the smart oddsmakers post an opener…and the smartest bettors (sharps) have put their money down. The talent is known. The motivation has been assessed. The number is as right as it’s going to be. All players have value. Any significant “subtraction” has to be worth something. Sharps bet the news as soon as hits on the assumption they’ll be getting value.
You may have heard over the years that bettors overreact to injuries. They assume a disaster when it’s not going to happen, and jump on a bandwagon that drives the line to the wrong place. Are sharps making a mistake by betting the news? NO!
Sharps start the bandwagon by betting first at what becomes a stale number. They don’t keep piling on money though. They take their positions on the assumption that the lost player had value. The mistake comes from the PUBLIC who bets the new number, and keeps betting as the line moves away from where it used to be. The sharps have value because they bet first. The public doesn’t because their money is at worse numbers.
Imagine a game with a 3-point favorite…and the superior team loses a running back to suspension.
---the sharps bet the dog at +3
---the squares bet the dog at +2
---the squares keep betting the dog at +1
---when the line falls to pick-em, the sharps buy some back to set up a middle.
Who’s getting the best of it?
THE SHARPS! They have the dog at +3 against a shorthanded favorite, and they’ve got position for a middle if the line lands on 1 or 2. The public bet an old number, and doesn’t have any middling potential. Play the game out 100 times, or 1,000 times. Sometimes the injury will matter, sometimes it won’t. Whenever the game lands on three, the sharps don’t lose and the public does. When the game lands on 1 or 2, the public will be sweating their line while the sharps cash BOTH BETS!
This is why it’s vital that you learn to think and bet like a sharp. And, it’s why it’s vital you need to bet the news when it happens during the college postseason.
*In the pro’s, read as much as you can from the local team websites to gauge the mindset of all 32 NFL teams. Few players come right out and say they’re not going to try very hard in the season finale. Smart fans can read between the lines and figure out who’s going to no-show, and who’s going to be trying to set a good tone for the next season.
Once you’ve got a read on every one (thanks to the internet, you can take care of this in one afternoon!), simply take the teams who will be trying at value prices against the teams who will be in the tank. Sounds easy. It is! That’s why oddsmakers hate the last NFL Sunday so much.
I should note that it’s not automatically as easy as taking teams who “need” the win vs. teams who don’t. That works out okay some years. In others, the team that needs the win plays conservatively and nervously, and they’re matched up against a non-contender that’s actually fired up about playing well.
Also remember that “need” is factored into the line already. You’re paying a tax to take contenders in must-win spots. Many of the non-contenders who are still trying have no such tax. You can lay anywhere from 3-7 points with teams who are in the mood to put on a show. Sometimes you’ll get them as an underdog. You can inexpensively go against teams who are just going to go through the motions so they can go home and start partying. Be sure to pay attention to the weather forecasts too. We saw several totals drop 4-5 points last week once it was clear that cold temperatures and wind would be a factor across the card. There were some big moves in dome games too! One of the clearest characteristics of sharps is that they BET THE NEWS, whether it’s regarding a player absence or a weather development.
CHRISTMAS WEEK IN NEVADA
Last month I gave you a taste of what Thanksgiving in Nevada is like. Another holiday is upon us, so I wanted to devote this week to describing what Christmas week is like in Las Vegas and Reno.
Along the way, I’ll outline some strategies that sharps (professional wagerers) use to make winning selections in this high profile week.
You could say that the holiday began early this year. Las Vegas had a few inches of snow last week! It was bitterly cold in Reno at the same time. You don’t get too many shots at a white Christmas in these parts. Fun to get a taste.
My clients also started the holiday early thanks to my major release on Arizona (-) vs. Brigham Young in the Las Vegas Bowl. Game day money took the line from Arizona -3 to Arizona -3.5. It didn’t matter as the Cats won 31-21 despite allowing a late touchdown.
The atmosphere for Christmas Week at the sportsbooks depends on what day of the week the holiday falls on. If it’s a Saturday or Sunday with some football scheduled, then the big day is like any other busy time at the casino. The decorations tell you it’s a holiday, but the action suggests it’s your typical big betting day.
This year, Christmas falls on a Thursday…and there are NO football games scheduled!
There is some NBA. I can tell you that the Boston/LA Lakers game Thursday afternoon will have one of the biggest pro basketball handles we’ve ever seen. It’s the best game of any type on TV, and it’s the only show in town!
Clearly the big day itself won’t compare to a football day. The full week though, will be hopping:
CHRISTMAS EVE: Notre Dame heads to the islands to play Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl. Notre Dame is a very popular betting team. People either love them or hate them. I expect that game to get a lot of action. Even though it’s not a major bowl…and Notre Dame had a disappointing season…this spot on the schedule will make this a very popular betting option. I’m definitely planning a strong selection here for my clients. Note that we’ve already seen a big line move here…with Hawaii opening at -2, but Notre Dame sitting at -1.5 as I write this. Is that too much love for the Irish?
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 26TH: The Motor City Bowl doesn’t always get a lot of attention. This year, Central Michigan and Florida Atlantic will have an exclusive TV window in front of a nation STARVED for football! The opening line here of Central -4 jumped to -7 very quickly. It dropped back to minus 6 over the weekend. I’ll have to decide for my clients whether or not to lay the points after so much value has been taken away…or to take the points with the clearly inferior team. This could be a spot where the total appeals to me more than the side.
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 27th: The first really big day of college bowl action has arrived, with SIX teams from BCS conferences squaring off. The day’s matchups are: West Virginia/North Carolina, Wisconsin/Florida State, and Miami of Florida/California. Last Saturday had four games, but mostly with non-BCS teams on the field. I expect this to be a very active college football betting day. There will be a lot of pent up energy from gamblers, and the major conferences are well represented. Imagine a college football Saturday in terms of betting enthusiasm, but with only three games on the board getting all the attention! My clients will be getting a BOWL PARLAY featuring at least two of my strongest releases so far.
SUNDAY DECEMBER 28TH: It’s the final big Sunday of pro football action in the regular season. That’s always a weird day because some games don’t matter to anyone, and some matter A LOT to one or both of the teams on the field. As an oddsmaker, I don’t look forward to this week at all because the sportsbooks are at the mercy of the sharps in many of the games. As a big bettor, I like trying to find the handful of spots that offer monster value. The final Sunday is a player’s market. If you’re a player, find someone who can help you take advantage!
Among the games of interest are: NY Giants/Minnesota, Miami/NY Jets, Dallas/Philadelphia, Carolina/New Orleans, and probably more!
MONDAY DECEMBER 29TH: There won’t be a Monday Night game in the NFL because the league won’t risk having a playoff team dealing with a short preparation week. There are two college bowl games…NC State/Rutgers, and Missouri/Northwestern. We’ve seen early line moves in both games. I’m wondering where the numbers will be sitting once game day arrives. Barring surprises, one of my top plays of the whole college football postseason will be released on this day.
After that, we’re into the next week. I’ll save that for my look at New Year’s in Nevada in next week’s article!
In a nutshell, Christmas Week won’t have the buzz and excitement this year that it’s had in the past in terms of casino traffic (economy) and sportsbook traffic (lighter schedule than we had hoped). But, there will be plenty of great moneymaking opportunities for sharp players. Here are some tips you should consider when trying to handicap next weekend’s games:
*In the colleges, stay up on the news wires. Once the lines have been up for awhile, the single biggest influence for moves is news regarding suspensions or injuries. You can almost assume that the lines are “set” after the smart oddsmakers post an opener…and the smartest bettors (sharps) have put their money down. The talent is known. The motivation has been assessed. The number is as right as it’s going to be. All players have value. Any significant “subtraction” has to be worth something. Sharps bet the news as soon as hits on the assumption they’ll be getting value.
You may have heard over the years that bettors overreact to injuries. They assume a disaster when it’s not going to happen, and jump on a bandwagon that drives the line to the wrong place. Are sharps making a mistake by betting the news? NO!
Sharps start the bandwagon by betting first at what becomes a stale number. They don’t keep piling on money though. They take their positions on the assumption that the lost player had value. The mistake comes from the PUBLIC who bets the new number, and keeps betting as the line moves away from where it used to be. The sharps have value because they bet first. The public doesn’t because their money is at worse numbers.
Imagine a game with a 3-point favorite…and the superior team loses a running back to suspension.
---the sharps bet the dog at +3
---the squares bet the dog at +2
---the squares keep betting the dog at +1
---when the line falls to pick-em, the sharps buy some back to set up a middle.
Who’s getting the best of it?
THE SHARPS! They have the dog at +3 against a shorthanded favorite, and they’ve got position for a middle if the line lands on 1 or 2. The public bet an old number, and doesn’t have any middling potential. Play the game out 100 times, or 1,000 times. Sometimes the injury will matter, sometimes it won’t. Whenever the game lands on three, the sharps don’t lose and the public does. When the game lands on 1 or 2, the public will be sweating their line while the sharps cash BOTH BETS!
This is why it’s vital that you learn to think and bet like a sharp. And, it’s why it’s vital you need to bet the news when it happens during the college postseason.
*In the pro’s, read as much as you can from the local team websites to gauge the mindset of all 32 NFL teams. Few players come right out and say they’re not going to try very hard in the season finale. Smart fans can read between the lines and figure out who’s going to no-show, and who’s going to be trying to set a good tone for the next season.
Once you’ve got a read on every one (thanks to the internet, you can take care of this in one afternoon!), simply take the teams who will be trying at value prices against the teams who will be in the tank. Sounds easy. It is! That’s why oddsmakers hate the last NFL Sunday so much.
I should note that it’s not automatically as easy as taking teams who “need” the win vs. teams who don’t. That works out okay some years. In others, the team that needs the win plays conservatively and nervously, and they’re matched up against a non-contender that’s actually fired up about playing well.
Also remember that “need” is factored into the line already. You’re paying a tax to take contenders in must-win spots. Many of the non-contenders who are still trying have no such tax. You can lay anywhere from 3-7 points with teams who are in the mood to put on a show. Sometimes you’ll get them as an underdog. You can inexpensively go against teams who are just going to go through the motions so they can go home and start partying. Be sure to pay attention to the weather forecasts too. We saw several totals drop 4-5 points last week once it was clear that cold temperatures and wind would be a factor across the card. There were some big moves in dome games too! One of the clearest characteristics of sharps is that they BET THE NEWS, whether it’s regarding a player absence or a weather development.