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NFL Week 5 – Hot Dog Delights
(Oct.1)
By Simon Milham – Britain’s top Football Handicapper and www.tradesports.com columnist.
Who is the best team in the NFL right now? The general consensus is the Kansas City Chiefs. The stats don’t lie and the difference between last year is easy to spot – they have a defense to go with their powerful offense. Dick Vermiel has added Vonnie Holiday and Shawn Barber and suddenly the Chiefs are giving up eight points per game less than last term.
On Sunday, they just have to do what they have in eight of the past 10 seasons – beat their deadly AFC West rivals the Denver Broncos at home, where five of the last 10 meetings have been settled by a field goal or less.
The Broncos squeaked past the Detroit Lions last week and with RB Clinton Portis listed as questionable, there will be plenty backing the home team. As well they might. Having won four without actually clicking, Jake Plummer still getting to grips with his new receiving corps and the obvious call is a home victory again.
The Chiefs are considered 3.5-point favourites with tradesports.com, a person-to-person sports trading exchange, where there is no bookie and where you can dictate your own odds. You can also bet while the game is in running. Football was made for P2P betting.
Yet look at the teams the Chiefs have played: San Diego, Houston, Baltimore and Pittsburgh. The Chargers are still seeking their first win, the Texans’ two victories have been by a combined five points – essentially they got lucky in both – and Baltimore don’t have any offense other than Jamal Lewis.
Pittsburgh have a great receiving corps but there is still a suspicion they are a quarterback short of being a good team. As for their defense, they appear to collectively take too many plays off, as the Titans showed last weekend. Is it really any wonder the Chiefs have outscored their opponents 127-58 in their 4-0 start?
The same can be said for the Broncos, who have only had the Bengals, Lions, Chargers and Raiders in front of them. They may be legitimately a 4-0 team but have they really been tested?
The Chiefs are a very good team, but one area the Broncos can have success is with plenty of play action and screen passes to their tight ends.
On paper it goes against the grain, but with RB Priest Holmes still playing through pain with sore ribs and a hip flexor injury, it may be worth chancing the Broncos with the 3.5-point start in the hope that a field goal either way will settle it.
The San Diego Chargers managed to score 31 points and still lose, blowing a 31-17 lead in the last five minutes to the Raiders to drop to 0-4. The last time they started so poorly was in 1999, when they went 4-11. On Sunday they travel to Jacksonville (0-4) in the first of this season’s ‘Who Cares’ Bowl series of games.
San Diego’s defensive woes continue, but they have the offensive weapons in QB Drew Brees and RB LaDainian Tomlinson (187 yards and a TD on 28 touches last week) to hurt the Jaguars, whose run defense has allowed on average only 2.78 yards per carry.
While Fred Taylor should have a great deal of success against a flimsy Chargers’ run defense (averaging 150 yards per game), Brees should find enough holes in a porous Jags’ secondary to ensure that the Chargers keep things close. For that reason, the 3.5-points on offer for the road team look tempting.
In the first three weeks of the season, favourites against the spread have done remarkably well 33-24-2 (57.9 per cent), while the dogs are not barking – 24-33-2 (42.1 per cent). So our 6-6 dogs record is possibly not as bad as it looks. Finding dogs has not been easy, but one of the better road dogs this week look to be the New Orleans Saints.
The Saints (1-3), who were blown away by the high-powered aerial Colts’ attack last weekend, travel to the Carolina Panthers (3-0). They are not as bad as their record suggests, while the Panthers look a little over-rated at present.
There is no doubt that the Saints have missed hugely LB Charlie Clemons and SS Sammy Knight, both team leaders on their defense, but they have had success against the run and they will need to continue that trend because Stephen Davis has given Carolina the dimension they were missing.
Similar to Miami, they have a strong running game and a stellar defense that will keep them competitive, with one of the best pass rushes in football. Their threat through the air is not so potent and Jon Fox believes in winning games with quality defense and clock management.
This game may boil down to how Saints’ QB Aaron Brooks copes with the little time he’ll have on the field against the pass rush, and it will be a good guide to see how – and if – he has matured. He has a strong arm, but his decision-making is adequate at best.
Donte Stallworth and Joe Horn will prove a severe test for the Carolina secondary and they also have arguably the best tight end in football in Ernie Conwell, who has to become a factor if the Saints are to be successful.
The Saints are considered 7-point dogs and if they manage to gain a semblance of a running game with Duce McAllister, they may open up enough lanes downfield to think they could put a few points on the board. They may not win, but they could cover in a contest where the points total could be lower than the quoted 38.5 points.
Milham’s Week 5 Hot Dog Delights:
Broncos +3.5 (Under 46.5), Chargers +3.5 (Under 36.5), Saints +7 (Under 37.5).
Fab Favourites are 9-3 for the season (75 per cent) 1-2 last week.
Dog Delights are 6-6 for the season (50 per cent) 1-2 last week.
Unders/Overs are 15-9 for the season (62.5 per cent) 6-0 last week.
Simon Milham is a columnist with www.tradesports.com TradeSports is a person-to-person sports trading exchange where members wager together without a bookie and ZERO VIG everyday.
(Oct.1)
By Simon Milham – Britain’s top Football Handicapper and www.tradesports.com columnist.
Who is the best team in the NFL right now? The general consensus is the Kansas City Chiefs. The stats don’t lie and the difference between last year is easy to spot – they have a defense to go with their powerful offense. Dick Vermiel has added Vonnie Holiday and Shawn Barber and suddenly the Chiefs are giving up eight points per game less than last term.
On Sunday, they just have to do what they have in eight of the past 10 seasons – beat their deadly AFC West rivals the Denver Broncos at home, where five of the last 10 meetings have been settled by a field goal or less.
The Broncos squeaked past the Detroit Lions last week and with RB Clinton Portis listed as questionable, there will be plenty backing the home team. As well they might. Having won four without actually clicking, Jake Plummer still getting to grips with his new receiving corps and the obvious call is a home victory again.
The Chiefs are considered 3.5-point favourites with tradesports.com, a person-to-person sports trading exchange, where there is no bookie and where you can dictate your own odds. You can also bet while the game is in running. Football was made for P2P betting.
Yet look at the teams the Chiefs have played: San Diego, Houston, Baltimore and Pittsburgh. The Chargers are still seeking their first win, the Texans’ two victories have been by a combined five points – essentially they got lucky in both – and Baltimore don’t have any offense other than Jamal Lewis.
Pittsburgh have a great receiving corps but there is still a suspicion they are a quarterback short of being a good team. As for their defense, they appear to collectively take too many plays off, as the Titans showed last weekend. Is it really any wonder the Chiefs have outscored their opponents 127-58 in their 4-0 start?
The same can be said for the Broncos, who have only had the Bengals, Lions, Chargers and Raiders in front of them. They may be legitimately a 4-0 team but have they really been tested?
The Chiefs are a very good team, but one area the Broncos can have success is with plenty of play action and screen passes to their tight ends.
On paper it goes against the grain, but with RB Priest Holmes still playing through pain with sore ribs and a hip flexor injury, it may be worth chancing the Broncos with the 3.5-point start in the hope that a field goal either way will settle it.
The San Diego Chargers managed to score 31 points and still lose, blowing a 31-17 lead in the last five minutes to the Raiders to drop to 0-4. The last time they started so poorly was in 1999, when they went 4-11. On Sunday they travel to Jacksonville (0-4) in the first of this season’s ‘Who Cares’ Bowl series of games.
San Diego’s defensive woes continue, but they have the offensive weapons in QB Drew Brees and RB LaDainian Tomlinson (187 yards and a TD on 28 touches last week) to hurt the Jaguars, whose run defense has allowed on average only 2.78 yards per carry.
While Fred Taylor should have a great deal of success against a flimsy Chargers’ run defense (averaging 150 yards per game), Brees should find enough holes in a porous Jags’ secondary to ensure that the Chargers keep things close. For that reason, the 3.5-points on offer for the road team look tempting.
In the first three weeks of the season, favourites against the spread have done remarkably well 33-24-2 (57.9 per cent), while the dogs are not barking – 24-33-2 (42.1 per cent). So our 6-6 dogs record is possibly not as bad as it looks. Finding dogs has not been easy, but one of the better road dogs this week look to be the New Orleans Saints.
The Saints (1-3), who were blown away by the high-powered aerial Colts’ attack last weekend, travel to the Carolina Panthers (3-0). They are not as bad as their record suggests, while the Panthers look a little over-rated at present.
There is no doubt that the Saints have missed hugely LB Charlie Clemons and SS Sammy Knight, both team leaders on their defense, but they have had success against the run and they will need to continue that trend because Stephen Davis has given Carolina the dimension they were missing.
Similar to Miami, they have a strong running game and a stellar defense that will keep them competitive, with one of the best pass rushes in football. Their threat through the air is not so potent and Jon Fox believes in winning games with quality defense and clock management.
This game may boil down to how Saints’ QB Aaron Brooks copes with the little time he’ll have on the field against the pass rush, and it will be a good guide to see how – and if – he has matured. He has a strong arm, but his decision-making is adequate at best.
Donte Stallworth and Joe Horn will prove a severe test for the Carolina secondary and they also have arguably the best tight end in football in Ernie Conwell, who has to become a factor if the Saints are to be successful.
The Saints are considered 7-point dogs and if they manage to gain a semblance of a running game with Duce McAllister, they may open up enough lanes downfield to think they could put a few points on the board. They may not win, but they could cover in a contest where the points total could be lower than the quoted 38.5 points.
Milham’s Week 5 Hot Dog Delights:
Broncos +3.5 (Under 46.5), Chargers +3.5 (Under 36.5), Saints +7 (Under 37.5).
Fab Favourites are 9-3 for the season (75 per cent) 1-2 last week.
Dog Delights are 6-6 for the season (50 per cent) 1-2 last week.
Unders/Overs are 15-9 for the season (62.5 per cent) 6-0 last week.
Simon Milham is a columnist with www.tradesports.com TradeSports is a person-to-person sports trading exchange where members wager together without a bookie and ZERO VIG everyday.