Tweet
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THE NBA PLAYOFF CONTENDERS
With the NBA playoffs coming up, I wanted to outline what the Nevada "sharps" (professional wagerers) are thinking about the various contenders. Next weekend I'll talk specifically about what the pros are thinking about all the first round matchups. Yes, the playoffs start next weekend!
That article will be specifically tied to series openers and those first round matchups though. Today, we'll focus on the championship potential of each team, or at least the chance to go deep.
I'll start with the West because that's where most of the excitement is going to be this year.
NEW ORLEANS
There's not much excitement about this team in terms of the championship. The sharps like taking veteran teams, and this is a group led by some great youngsters. Think back to the Minnesota Timberwolves when Kevin Garnett was just starting out. They'd have great regular seasons, then disappear in the playoffs. The sharps are expecting something like that for the Hornets this season. It has to be said though that these guys have a very favorable draw. As long as they finish out with the top seed, they'll get to watch the Lakers and Spurs knock each other out while they have a less demanding challenge. My sense from the sharps is that they'll be looking at Hornets' opponents in every round though. They're just not that much better than the teams they'll be playing. And, in terms of what works in the playoffs, they may not have any edge beyond home court.
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
The sharps have had to stay away from the Lakers most of the year because the prices got so high. The public loves betting on big name teams when they start winning. The Lakers started winning early, and saw their lines shoot way up. Sharps have actually gone against the Lakers more than they've taken them, even though they acknowledge this team really is championship material when healthy. They're looking to pick their spots at cheaper prices in the postseason...as road favorites, or home off of losses in the later rounds. The futures prices are so unfairly priced that the sharps aren't even taking much of a shot on the Lakers to win it all. The payoff just doesn't match the true odds. It will be very interesting to see how the sharps play this. They will probably like the Lakers in every series but have to bet against them most of the time!
SAN ANTONIO
These guys are the champs until somebody knocks them out. The team hasn't been playing in sputters and starts lately. The sharps won't back them until they see consistency...and the prices are affordable. The public knows San Antonio is a great playoff team. That could put line value on their opponents. You saw that both Phoenix and Utah beat the Spurs outright recently. The sharps will be okay betting on San Antonio's opponents if the lines are too high. And, they'll bet Unders if the team doesn't start hitting some shots. In terms of the Western championship, I'd say it's a toss-up right now between the Lakers and Spurs in the eyes of the sharps. They don't see any value currently betting on either side to go all the way though.
UTAH
This is a popular team with the sharps. Many of them are old school guys who like Jerry Sloan because of the way he coaches. They like taking this team at home because they don't think the line has caught up to how well the Jazz have been playing in Salt Lake City this year. I have seen these guys get some darkhorse bets to win the West or the league championship. They're assured of a fourth place finish at worst because they've won their division. They would be well advised NOT to catch San Antonio for third place! Utah would be the sharps pick over New Orleans in a second round series.
HOUSTON
The sharps stopped taking this team seriously when Yao Ming went out. Everybody knows that Tracy McGrady loses in the playoffs. If he's the team leader, it's hard to be optimistic about their chances. They'll get respect on their home floor in the first round. That's about it. The sharps are thinking NEXT year could get interesting when Yao is back in the lineup. Rick Adelman is doing a great job building a team here. It's going to pay off in the long run.
PHOENIX
The sharps don't know what to think about the Suns. Just when they gave up on them, Phoenix started playing well. Just when they figured the Suns were going to keep it going, they lost at home to Dallas on national TV. If Phoenix draws San Antonio in the first round, the sharps will gladly take the points on the road with Phoenix...and might just ride them daily throughout the series figuring they'll grind out a poinstpread profit. They'll have to see Shaq win a series with his new team before thinking about anything beyond the first round. This is definitely a team the sharps are watching closely. Too bad for the Suns they're in the tough part of the brackets.
DALLAS
This team was off the radar until winning in Phoenix the other day. Now, there's at least some hope that the Mavericks can be competitive enough to cover some games as underdogs in their first round series. Jason Kidd isn't seen as an impact player any more amongst the sharps. But, the combination of Kidd and Dirk Nowitzki is enough to offer value in the underdog role.
DENVER OR GOLDEN STATE
Denver broke the tie between these teams Thursday Night with a big road victory. Both teams are seen as clones right now. They each shoot well but don't play much defense. Denver is the better of the two defenses...but they've become soft since the All-Star break. Neither is seen as a team that has the right stuff to win a championship. But, both are certainly capable of upsetting New Orleans in the first round. This is the tightest bunching we've ever seen in a conference. #8 is pretty close to #1 in the big picture. Golden State upset Dallas last year in this spot when the difference was much wider. It's funny. Though the sharps don't respect how these teams perform the key factors in postseason play...they will likely be betting on the 8th seed in the first round...and again in the second round should there be an upset. Either is a spoiler that's likely to offer some pointspread value.
Moving now to the East...
BOSTON
As was the case with the Lakers, the sharps couldn't take much advantage of Boston's great season. The lines got too high too fast. Even when Boston kept covering on the road, the sharps just couldn't lay those high prices! They're hoping for a chance to invest in Boston in the later rounds. I am hearing that most sharps prefer Detroit in the East though. Playoff experience matters. And, guard play matters too. This is seen as a weakness for the Celtics that won't be exploited until they run into Detroit, or the Western champion.
DETROIT
The Pistons are the "true" number one seed in the eyes of the sharps. They've been there before. They've been there and WON before. In the playoffs, that becomes a big edge. If form holds, I'd expect the sharps to be taking Detroit almost every game against Boston. I'll also expect a lot of Under bets when both of the top seeds are on the floor because of the strong defense they play.
ORLANDO
It's not much of an exaggeration to say that the sharps aren't taking ANYBODY seriously outside of Boston and Detroit right now. The Magic might as well be a 6th or 7th seed for the lack of respect they're getting. Nobody's going to believe in Orlando until they win a meaningful series. There's a good chance they'll be playing Philadelphia in the first round. I know a lot of sharps who have been cleaning up with the Sixers for several weeks now.
CLEVELAND
Why isn't Cleveland getting more respect from the sharps? Last year's champs seemed to take a step backward this year. And, LeBron James is battling a bad back. If he's not at 100%, it's hard to see these guys making a dent against the big two. How can LeBron carry the team on his back if he's got a bad back?! The fact that Gilbert Arenas is back for Washington might keep sharps off the Cavs in the first round. That's the likely matchup. Cleveland isn't a team you can trust as a favorite right now.
WASHINGTON
Since Arenas is back, the Wizards are likely to get attention in the first round, but not against Boston from the sharps. Of course, Washington would have to get past Cleveland for that to become an issue. If Washington were in the West, they wouldn't even be seen as a playoff caliber team. The sharps are holding no illusions about that. I do think they'll like the Wizards as a dog in the first round.
PHILADELPHIA
I mentioned already that many sharps have been cleaning up with the Sixers. These guys have been gold for about the last 35 games or so. They got good, and the public didn't notice! Oddsmakers finally adjusted the lines, but it took them weeks. The Sixers will be a popular take against Orlando in the projected first round series...or really as a dog against anybody in the first round. The public will be betting the opponent, and the Wise Guys will take the free points.
TORONTO
The sharps made good money last year in the first round betting against Toronto when they were a top four seed. They are very weak at the stuff that wins playoff games. Nothing's changed in that regard this year. They play like Phoenix without all the sizzle...and Phoenix brought in Shaq anyway because they were weak inside. The sharps might pick their spots in a game or two with Toronto. It's not a team they like in the postseason format.
ATLANTA
Well, these guys will be HUGE dogs against Boston in the first round. Sharps like betting on huge dogs in principal. So, in that sense, there will be support for Atlanta. Nobody's expecting any miracles.
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THE NBA PLAYOFF CONTENDERS
With the NBA playoffs coming up, I wanted to outline what the Nevada "sharps" (professional wagerers) are thinking about the various contenders. Next weekend I'll talk specifically about what the pros are thinking about all the first round matchups. Yes, the playoffs start next weekend!
That article will be specifically tied to series openers and those first round matchups though. Today, we'll focus on the championship potential of each team, or at least the chance to go deep.
I'll start with the West because that's where most of the excitement is going to be this year.
NEW ORLEANS
There's not much excitement about this team in terms of the championship. The sharps like taking veteran teams, and this is a group led by some great youngsters. Think back to the Minnesota Timberwolves when Kevin Garnett was just starting out. They'd have great regular seasons, then disappear in the playoffs. The sharps are expecting something like that for the Hornets this season. It has to be said though that these guys have a very favorable draw. As long as they finish out with the top seed, they'll get to watch the Lakers and Spurs knock each other out while they have a less demanding challenge. My sense from the sharps is that they'll be looking at Hornets' opponents in every round though. They're just not that much better than the teams they'll be playing. And, in terms of what works in the playoffs, they may not have any edge beyond home court.
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
The sharps have had to stay away from the Lakers most of the year because the prices got so high. The public loves betting on big name teams when they start winning. The Lakers started winning early, and saw their lines shoot way up. Sharps have actually gone against the Lakers more than they've taken them, even though they acknowledge this team really is championship material when healthy. They're looking to pick their spots at cheaper prices in the postseason...as road favorites, or home off of losses in the later rounds. The futures prices are so unfairly priced that the sharps aren't even taking much of a shot on the Lakers to win it all. The payoff just doesn't match the true odds. It will be very interesting to see how the sharps play this. They will probably like the Lakers in every series but have to bet against them most of the time!
SAN ANTONIO
These guys are the champs until somebody knocks them out. The team hasn't been playing in sputters and starts lately. The sharps won't back them until they see consistency...and the prices are affordable. The public knows San Antonio is a great playoff team. That could put line value on their opponents. You saw that both Phoenix and Utah beat the Spurs outright recently. The sharps will be okay betting on San Antonio's opponents if the lines are too high. And, they'll bet Unders if the team doesn't start hitting some shots. In terms of the Western championship, I'd say it's a toss-up right now between the Lakers and Spurs in the eyes of the sharps. They don't see any value currently betting on either side to go all the way though.
UTAH
This is a popular team with the sharps. Many of them are old school guys who like Jerry Sloan because of the way he coaches. They like taking this team at home because they don't think the line has caught up to how well the Jazz have been playing in Salt Lake City this year. I have seen these guys get some darkhorse bets to win the West or the league championship. They're assured of a fourth place finish at worst because they've won their division. They would be well advised NOT to catch San Antonio for third place! Utah would be the sharps pick over New Orleans in a second round series.
HOUSTON
The sharps stopped taking this team seriously when Yao Ming went out. Everybody knows that Tracy McGrady loses in the playoffs. If he's the team leader, it's hard to be optimistic about their chances. They'll get respect on their home floor in the first round. That's about it. The sharps are thinking NEXT year could get interesting when Yao is back in the lineup. Rick Adelman is doing a great job building a team here. It's going to pay off in the long run.
PHOENIX
The sharps don't know what to think about the Suns. Just when they gave up on them, Phoenix started playing well. Just when they figured the Suns were going to keep it going, they lost at home to Dallas on national TV. If Phoenix draws San Antonio in the first round, the sharps will gladly take the points on the road with Phoenix...and might just ride them daily throughout the series figuring they'll grind out a poinstpread profit. They'll have to see Shaq win a series with his new team before thinking about anything beyond the first round. This is definitely a team the sharps are watching closely. Too bad for the Suns they're in the tough part of the brackets.
DALLAS
This team was off the radar until winning in Phoenix the other day. Now, there's at least some hope that the Mavericks can be competitive enough to cover some games as underdogs in their first round series. Jason Kidd isn't seen as an impact player any more amongst the sharps. But, the combination of Kidd and Dirk Nowitzki is enough to offer value in the underdog role.
DENVER OR GOLDEN STATE
Denver broke the tie between these teams Thursday Night with a big road victory. Both teams are seen as clones right now. They each shoot well but don't play much defense. Denver is the better of the two defenses...but they've become soft since the All-Star break. Neither is seen as a team that has the right stuff to win a championship. But, both are certainly capable of upsetting New Orleans in the first round. This is the tightest bunching we've ever seen in a conference. #8 is pretty close to #1 in the big picture. Golden State upset Dallas last year in this spot when the difference was much wider. It's funny. Though the sharps don't respect how these teams perform the key factors in postseason play...they will likely be betting on the 8th seed in the first round...and again in the second round should there be an upset. Either is a spoiler that's likely to offer some pointspread value.
Moving now to the East...
BOSTON
As was the case with the Lakers, the sharps couldn't take much advantage of Boston's great season. The lines got too high too fast. Even when Boston kept covering on the road, the sharps just couldn't lay those high prices! They're hoping for a chance to invest in Boston in the later rounds. I am hearing that most sharps prefer Detroit in the East though. Playoff experience matters. And, guard play matters too. This is seen as a weakness for the Celtics that won't be exploited until they run into Detroit, or the Western champion.
DETROIT
The Pistons are the "true" number one seed in the eyes of the sharps. They've been there before. They've been there and WON before. In the playoffs, that becomes a big edge. If form holds, I'd expect the sharps to be taking Detroit almost every game against Boston. I'll also expect a lot of Under bets when both of the top seeds are on the floor because of the strong defense they play.
ORLANDO
It's not much of an exaggeration to say that the sharps aren't taking ANYBODY seriously outside of Boston and Detroit right now. The Magic might as well be a 6th or 7th seed for the lack of respect they're getting. Nobody's going to believe in Orlando until they win a meaningful series. There's a good chance they'll be playing Philadelphia in the first round. I know a lot of sharps who have been cleaning up with the Sixers for several weeks now.
CLEVELAND
Why isn't Cleveland getting more respect from the sharps? Last year's champs seemed to take a step backward this year. And, LeBron James is battling a bad back. If he's not at 100%, it's hard to see these guys making a dent against the big two. How can LeBron carry the team on his back if he's got a bad back?! The fact that Gilbert Arenas is back for Washington might keep sharps off the Cavs in the first round. That's the likely matchup. Cleveland isn't a team you can trust as a favorite right now.
WASHINGTON
Since Arenas is back, the Wizards are likely to get attention in the first round, but not against Boston from the sharps. Of course, Washington would have to get past Cleveland for that to become an issue. If Washington were in the West, they wouldn't even be seen as a playoff caliber team. The sharps are holding no illusions about that. I do think they'll like the Wizards as a dog in the first round.
PHILADELPHIA
I mentioned already that many sharps have been cleaning up with the Sixers. These guys have been gold for about the last 35 games or so. They got good, and the public didn't notice! Oddsmakers finally adjusted the lines, but it took them weeks. The Sixers will be a popular take against Orlando in the projected first round series...or really as a dog against anybody in the first round. The public will be betting the opponent, and the Wise Guys will take the free points.
TORONTO
The sharps made good money last year in the first round betting against Toronto when they were a top four seed. They are very weak at the stuff that wins playoff games. Nothing's changed in that regard this year. They play like Phoenix without all the sizzle...and Phoenix brought in Shaq anyway because they were weak inside. The sharps might pick their spots in a game or two with Toronto. It's not a team they like in the postseason format.
ATLANTA
Well, these guys will be HUGE dogs against Boston in the first round. Sharps like betting on huge dogs in principal. So, in that sense, there will be support for Atlanta. Nobody's expecting any miracles.