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4/3/2008
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
SHARPS PAYING CLOSE ATTENTION TO NBA PLAYOFF RACES
With about 7-8 games left for most NBA teams, professional wagerers are paying very close attention to the playoff picture.
There's a battle to get INTO the playoffs
There's a battle WITHIN the playoff structure for positioning
There's a battle for HOME COURT advantage in the first round and beyond
There's a need to not exhaust yourself too early
And, it's all playing out nightly on the NBA hardwood.
I wanted to make sure you were aware of all the dynamics in play right now as we head down these last few weeks. Let's take a look at the races in both conferences. I'll start in the West, because that's where the fireworks are!
WESTERN STANDINGS (through Tuesday Night's games)
1...New Orleans 51-22
2...San Antonio 52-23 (virtual tie with N.O.)
3...LA Lakers 50-24
4...Utah 49-26
5...Phoenix 50-25 (better record than Utah, but lower seed)
6...Houston 49-25
7...Dallas 46-28
8...Denver 46-29
9...Golden State 45-29 (only eight teams make it)
This gets very complicated very quickly because the teams are all jammed together. Note that Utah is guaranteed a seeding no worse than fourth if they win their division. The Lakers and Suns might flip-flop spots in their tight Pacific division race...but Utah would stick in the 4th spot.
Okay...some notes:
New Orleans and San Antonio are battling for the top seed throughout the Western playoffs. The Lakers and Suns are so close in the standings that they have a shot too.
Whichever of the Lakers and Suns DOESN'T win the Pacific division will probably have to open the playoffs on the road against Utah. Utah has a very strong home court, so there's a VERY big difference between finishing third and fifth this year.
Of Dallas, Denver, and Golden State, only two will make the playoffs unless Houston has a monster collapse. Look for intensity from those teams these last few games...but remember that sustained intensity may have a draining effect on all of them. Denver sure looked tired at times against Phoenix this week. Dallas has had trouble beating good teams since Dirk Nowitzki got hurt. Golden State's defense is spotty in the best of times.
The only teams who can slightly afford to relax on that list are Utah, sitting cozy in the fourth spot with a few games over Denver in its division...and Houston...who would have trouble leaving the sixth spot unless there were some big surprises. EVERYONE else has something very important to play for right now. You're going to get some very strong efforts from the league powers in these coming days.
There are too many games left to outline everyone's challenges step by step. Be sure you go through the schedule to find clear games of emphasis. Look to play Unders in games that will have a playoff feel to them. Look to play underdogs when two relatively fresh teams are playing. Look to exploit fatigue when fresh teams are playing tired teams. That's going to be very important in these latter stages of the season.
If I had to give just one piece of advice in the West, I'd tell you to focus on which teams are starting to look tired on defense. This is going to trigger some strong team side selections against them (particularly in back-to-back spots), and some Overs in games where traditionalists are thinking Under because of need. You can play Unders in games with a playoff feel where fresh defenses are playing. You'll want to go the other way when tired defenses are playing though.
Moving to the East...
1...Boston 59-15
2...Detroit 53-21
3...Orlando 47-28
4...Cleveland 41-33
5...Washington 38-36
6...Toronto 38-36
7...Philadelphia 38-37
8...Atlanta 34-40
9...Indiana and New Jersey are a few games back
There's not much drama at the top of the pack here. The top four seeds are almost set in stone, unless Cleveland falls apart down the stretch. Boston is going to have home court through the playoffs if they keep winning. Detroit has a chance to post a better record than the Western contenders as well.
The real interest now is in the 5-9 spots. Nobody wants to play Boston or Detroit in the first round, so there will be a real battle for the 5th and 6th seeds. Philadelphia has a chance to leapfrog Washington and Toronto because they've been playing so well. Time is running out though. Atlanta has strung together some victories against weak opposition. That's almost earned them those playoff bonuses already. They'll need some help missing out on a first round showdown with the Celtics though.
Isn't it interesting that Washington's in almost the same boat as last year even though Gilbert Arenas has missed almost the entire season? It will be interesting to see if he can return and have some impact in the playoffs. I'd say, after the first round, the Eastern Playoffs are likely to be very entertaining this year.
Be aware that the NON-playoff teams in the East have been slacking off on defense lately. I know many Nevada sharps who like taking Overs when non-playoff teams are matched up. They figure nobody's going to care enough to play defense when everyone's playing out the string. Now, Miami's offense is so bad you've got to be careful with them. But, it's probably good advice to look for Overs the rest of the way when teams 9th or below in the Eastern standings are playing each other...or playing an opponent with a strong offense.
In the West, it's all about taking good teams at the right time. I'd have to say that making money in the East the rest of the way is going to be more about exploiting the late season tendencies of bad teams. Sharps know how to exploit drama...and the lack of drama!
I know many of you are planning on relaxing for a couple of weeks, then getting involved with the NBA once the playoffs start. You had a fun run through March Madness, but you need a break. Well, every day you're away is a day you're not making money! Some of the best bets on the board all year occur in these late season games where some teams are trying and others aren't. Sure, the oddsmakers try to account for that as best they can. Sometimes the efforts are so divergent that you can't put the right number on a game. There's a number that "splits the action" in terms of the money. But, it's not a number that truly reflects what's most likely to happen on the court.
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
SHARPS PAYING CLOSE ATTENTION TO NBA PLAYOFF RACES
With about 7-8 games left for most NBA teams, professional wagerers are paying very close attention to the playoff picture.
There's a battle to get INTO the playoffs
There's a battle WITHIN the playoff structure for positioning
There's a battle for HOME COURT advantage in the first round and beyond
There's a need to not exhaust yourself too early
And, it's all playing out nightly on the NBA hardwood.
I wanted to make sure you were aware of all the dynamics in play right now as we head down these last few weeks. Let's take a look at the races in both conferences. I'll start in the West, because that's where the fireworks are!
WESTERN STANDINGS (through Tuesday Night's games)
1...New Orleans 51-22
2...San Antonio 52-23 (virtual tie with N.O.)
3...LA Lakers 50-24
4...Utah 49-26
5...Phoenix 50-25 (better record than Utah, but lower seed)
6...Houston 49-25
7...Dallas 46-28
8...Denver 46-29
9...Golden State 45-29 (only eight teams make it)
This gets very complicated very quickly because the teams are all jammed together. Note that Utah is guaranteed a seeding no worse than fourth if they win their division. The Lakers and Suns might flip-flop spots in their tight Pacific division race...but Utah would stick in the 4th spot.
Okay...some notes:
New Orleans and San Antonio are battling for the top seed throughout the Western playoffs. The Lakers and Suns are so close in the standings that they have a shot too.
Whichever of the Lakers and Suns DOESN'T win the Pacific division will probably have to open the playoffs on the road against Utah. Utah has a very strong home court, so there's a VERY big difference between finishing third and fifth this year.
Of Dallas, Denver, and Golden State, only two will make the playoffs unless Houston has a monster collapse. Look for intensity from those teams these last few games...but remember that sustained intensity may have a draining effect on all of them. Denver sure looked tired at times against Phoenix this week. Dallas has had trouble beating good teams since Dirk Nowitzki got hurt. Golden State's defense is spotty in the best of times.
The only teams who can slightly afford to relax on that list are Utah, sitting cozy in the fourth spot with a few games over Denver in its division...and Houston...who would have trouble leaving the sixth spot unless there were some big surprises. EVERYONE else has something very important to play for right now. You're going to get some very strong efforts from the league powers in these coming days.
There are too many games left to outline everyone's challenges step by step. Be sure you go through the schedule to find clear games of emphasis. Look to play Unders in games that will have a playoff feel to them. Look to play underdogs when two relatively fresh teams are playing. Look to exploit fatigue when fresh teams are playing tired teams. That's going to be very important in these latter stages of the season.
If I had to give just one piece of advice in the West, I'd tell you to focus on which teams are starting to look tired on defense. This is going to trigger some strong team side selections against them (particularly in back-to-back spots), and some Overs in games where traditionalists are thinking Under because of need. You can play Unders in games with a playoff feel where fresh defenses are playing. You'll want to go the other way when tired defenses are playing though.
Moving to the East...
1...Boston 59-15
2...Detroit 53-21
3...Orlando 47-28
4...Cleveland 41-33
5...Washington 38-36
6...Toronto 38-36
7...Philadelphia 38-37
8...Atlanta 34-40
9...Indiana and New Jersey are a few games back
There's not much drama at the top of the pack here. The top four seeds are almost set in stone, unless Cleveland falls apart down the stretch. Boston is going to have home court through the playoffs if they keep winning. Detroit has a chance to post a better record than the Western contenders as well.
The real interest now is in the 5-9 spots. Nobody wants to play Boston or Detroit in the first round, so there will be a real battle for the 5th and 6th seeds. Philadelphia has a chance to leapfrog Washington and Toronto because they've been playing so well. Time is running out though. Atlanta has strung together some victories against weak opposition. That's almost earned them those playoff bonuses already. They'll need some help missing out on a first round showdown with the Celtics though.
Isn't it interesting that Washington's in almost the same boat as last year even though Gilbert Arenas has missed almost the entire season? It will be interesting to see if he can return and have some impact in the playoffs. I'd say, after the first round, the Eastern Playoffs are likely to be very entertaining this year.
Be aware that the NON-playoff teams in the East have been slacking off on defense lately. I know many Nevada sharps who like taking Overs when non-playoff teams are matched up. They figure nobody's going to care enough to play defense when everyone's playing out the string. Now, Miami's offense is so bad you've got to be careful with them. But, it's probably good advice to look for Overs the rest of the way when teams 9th or below in the Eastern standings are playing each other...or playing an opponent with a strong offense.
In the West, it's all about taking good teams at the right time. I'd have to say that making money in the East the rest of the way is going to be more about exploiting the late season tendencies of bad teams. Sharps know how to exploit drama...and the lack of drama!
I know many of you are planning on relaxing for a couple of weeks, then getting involved with the NBA once the playoffs start. You had a fun run through March Madness, but you need a break. Well, every day you're away is a day you're not making money! Some of the best bets on the board all year occur in these late season games where some teams are trying and others aren't. Sure, the oddsmakers try to account for that as best they can. Sometimes the efforts are so divergent that you can't put the right number on a game. There's a number that "splits the action" in terms of the money. But, it's not a number that truly reflects what's most likely to happen on the court.