Tweet
Key ******* College Bowl Game Trends,
Situations, and Projections
By Steve Makinen
*******.com
It seems like just yesterday that I was writing about how football was back and what a great season it was going to be. Well it was, but it sure did go quick. So here we are, time to go "bowling" once again, my favorite time of the year. From all early indications on the *******.com bowl game FoxSheets, there are a number of strong plays this year which could lead to another wonderful holiday season! I’ve started to layout my recipe for winners already and it includes a great mix of favorites, underdogs, overs, and unders.
But how do I come up with the right mix? What exactly should I look for in handicapping the bowl games? It’s not an exact science but in my experience, there are a number of factors to consider, including but not limited to:
1) Team rushing strength: Usually the team with the stronger rushing game will control the line of scrimmage and have great chance of winning and covering.
2) Momentum of the teams: In my own estimation, a team riding a winning streak will generally continue to play well in its bowl game. Alternatively, I believe that the effect of a losing streak going into a bowl game is of lesser importance as the team has had the time to regroup.
3) Bowl placement: Often a team’s motivation in a bowl game hinges upon their satisfaction with the bid it received. Some teams are elated with where they are playing while others may feel they’ve been robbed. It can lead to unexpected levels of performance when game time comes around. I’ve found this motivation factor particularly important in higher spread games.
4) Past successes have taught me that the stats and trends can’t be ignored. I wouldn’t and couldn’t make a confident selection without consulting my FoxSheets first! There is no substitute for reliable, accurate, indepth analysis.
With the holiday spirit mind, the staff at *******.com would once again like to offer up a sample of some trends and analyses from this year’s bowl games. For the most in-depth handicapping information available for every bowl game, visit us today at *******.com. In the meantime, enjoy the following and hopefully it helps you on your road to a successful and rewarding bowl season.
2002 TEAM PERFORMANCE TRENDS
Which are the HOT teams coming into this year’s bowl games?
- IOWA was 6-0 SU & ATS in its final six games of the regular season.
- TENNESSEE won its final three games of the season SU & ATS, with consecutive shutouts in the final two.
- AUBURN closed the regular season on a 5-1 ATS stretch.
- KANSAS STATE was 5-0 SU & ATS to end the season, outscoring its opponents 253-30.
- OKLAHOMA closed the regular season on a 6-2 ATS run, its best stretch since the beginning of the 2000 season.
- OKLAHOMA STATE comes into its bowl game vs SOUTHERN MISS on a 5-1 SU & ATS run.
- USC is on a six game SU & ATS winning streak as it prepares to battle IOWA in the Rose Bowl.
- MIAMI enters its second straight national title game with a 34 game winning streak.
- BOSTON COLLEGE heads into the Motor City Bowl on a 5-1 ATS stretch.
- WEST VIRGINIA has the nation’s longest ATS winning streak at seven games.
- CINCINNATI covered six of its last seven games of the 2002 season.
- TULANE finished the regular season on a 6-1 ATS run.
- NEW MEXICO enters its Christmas Day bowl game vs UCLA on a five game ATS winning streak.
- BOISE STATE has a 10 game SU winning streak and is 9-1 ATS in that span.
Which teams are playing POORLY heading into their bowl games?
- MINNESOTA was 0-4 SU & ATS to end the season and were outscored by 22.5 ppg in that span.
- ARKANSAS won three of its last four games SU to end the season, but was 0-4 ATS.
- IOWA STATE was 1-5 SU & ATS in the last six games of the year, including a 17 point home loss to Connecticut.
- OREGON was 1-5 SU & ATS to end the regular season.
- SOUTHERN MISS closed the year on a 1-7-1 ATS stretch and was just 2-8-1 ATS overall.
- FRESNO STATE has covered the spread just once in its last six games.
- HAWAII was 4-1 SU to end the regular season but just 1-4 ATS.
PAST BOWL PERFORMANCE TRENDS
The STRONG bowl teams:
- PENN STATE is 6-2 SU & ATS in its last eight bowl games.
- GEORGIA is on a 4-1 SU & ATS run in its last five bowl games.
- LSU has won five bowl games in a row SU and is 4-1 ATS in that span.
- OLE MISS is 4-1 SU & ATS in bowl games since ’92.
- NEBRASKA is on a 6-2 ATS run in its last eight bowl contests.
- Despite losing last season, COLORADO is on a 6-1 SU & ATS stretch in bowl games.
- WASHINGTON is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games.
- OREGON is on a stretch of 4-1 SU & ATS in bowl games since ’97.
- MIAMI has won five straight bowl games SU & ATS, all by double digit margins.
- BOSTON COLLEGE comes into its bowl game on a 4-1 SU & ATS bowl run.
- BOISE STATE is 2-0 SU & ATS in its only two previous bowl game.
- MARSHALL is on a four game SU & ATS bowl winning streak.
The WEAK bowl teams:
- OHIO STATE is 1-8 ATS in its last nine bowl games.
- MINNESOTA has lost its last three bowl games, both SU & ATS.
- AUBURN is 1-4 ATS in its bowl games since ’95.
- TEXAS has covered just once in its last six bowl games.
- TEXAS TECH has lost four straight bowl games, both SU & ATS, and all four as a favorite.
- UCLA is 1-4 SU & ATS in bowl games since ’93.
- VIRGINIA has lost four straight bowl games, both SU & ATS.
- NOTRE DAME hasn’t won a bowl game since January ’94 and is 1-4 ATS in that span.
MISCELLANEOUS FACTS FROM THE
2002-03 BOWL SEASON
- OHIO STATE is a double digit underdog for just the second time in six seasons.
- PENN STATE returns to a bowl games after a two year hiatus, the longest such stretch in the 37 year Joe Paterno era.
- TEXAS plays its eighth straight bowl game as a favorite.
- OKLAHOMA STATE plays in just its second bowl game since ’88.
- WAKE FOREST and PURDUE received bowl bids despite 6-6 records.
- FLORIDA STATE is 3-1 SU & ATS in the Sugar Bowl since ’95.
- NEW MEXICO plays in its first bowl game since ’97 and just its second since ’61.
- BOISE STATE plays its third bowl game ever, and coincidentally its third Humanitarian Bowl.
There are several rematches of recent bowls. They include:
- PURDUE and WASHINGTON met in the ’00 Rose Bowl. The Huskies won 34-24 as a 1-1/2 point dog.
- PENN STATE and AUBURN played the ’95 Outback Bowl. PENN STATE won 43-14 in that game.
- MARYLAND and TENNESSEE played each other in the ’83 Citrus Bowl & ’84 Sun Bowl. They split those games.
- OREGON and WAKE FOREST were the opponents in the ’92 Independence Bowl. Wake won that game 39-35.
- The ’98 Motor City Bowl matched LOUISVILLE and MARSHALL, who won 49-28. They meet again in this year’s GMAC Bowl.
VARIOUS MOTIVATIONAL FACTORS
As noted earlier, a team’s motivation can play a huge role in how it performs in a game. Motivation can come from countless number of factors though and several situations have arisen this year that could influence the upcoming games. Think about the following and refer back to these after the bowl season to see how they affected each game.
- LOUISVILLE was the clear favorite in the minds of the preseason prognosticators’ not only for the Conference-USA title but also possibly for a BCS spot. Five losses later, they are left facing MARSHALL from the MAC in the low profile GMAC Bowl.
- Just weeks ago, TEXAS TECH was battling OKLAHOMA for a spot in the Big 12 title game. A 45 point loss in that game knocked them back to a Tangerine Bowl matchup with unranked Clemson.
- UCLA fired Head Coach Bob Toledo just days after the regular season ending loss to WASHINGTON STATE. The last time a coach was replaced heading into the bowl game was in ’99 when Bobby Williams took over for Nick Saban and rallied MICHIGAN STATE to a 37-34 defeat of Florida in the Citrus Bowl.
- PITTSBURGH was staring at a possible New Year’s Day bowl until a season finale home loss to WEST VIRGINIA knocked them back to a December 26th date in Phoenix with OREGON ST.
- OKLAHOMA STATE earned its first bowl bid since ’97 by winning one of the biggest games in school history: a 38-28 decision over rival OKLAHOMA in the season finale.
- NEBRASKA, accustomed to playing high profile bowl games and national championships, is left to battling MISSISSIPPI for Independence Bowl bragging rights after a 7-6 regular season.
- KANSAS STATE, whose only two losses are by a total of seven points (to COLORADO & TEXAS), has disappointedly accepted a bid to the Holiday Bowl against 8-5 ARIZONA STATE.
- WISCONSIN has accepted an Alamo Bowl bid despite going just 2-6 in Big Ten play. The Badgers will face a COLORADO team that was one Big 12 title game win away from a trip to the BCS Rose Bowl.
- MINNESOTA has accepted a bid to the Music City Bowl against ARKANSAS despite losing its last four games by a margin of over 22 ppg.
- OREGON somehow turned a 6-0 start and top 10 ranking into a Seattle Bowl appearance against 6-6 WAKE FOREST.
- IOWA STATE, one of the nation’s biggest early season surprises finds itself installed as a 10 point underdog to WAC champion BOISE STATE in the Humanitarian Bowl after flaming out to end the year.
- TENNESSEE, destined for BCS stardom in the preseason, lost four games in 2002 and finds itself playing on New Year’s Eve against MARYLAND in a much lesser paid Peach Bowl.
- Just a short time ago, both NC STATE and NOTRE DAME were undefeated late in the season and eyeing BCS Bowl bids. A few defeats later and they meet in the lesser profile Gator Bowl. The Irish continued to lobby the BCS even after the 44-13 pounding they received at USC.
- Despite losing four games in the regular season, FLORIDA STATE has "earned" a BCS bowl bid via its ACC Championship. The Seminoles reward is a Sugar Bowl date with 12-1 GEORGIA, a team in the top 10 nearly all year.
- Oddsmakers have installed 12-0 OHIO STATE as a 13 point underdog to defending national champion MIAMI in the BCS title game. Ironically, the Buckeyes defense yielded only 13.25 ppg in its unbeaten regular season.
TRENDS, FACTS, & FIGURES
FROM EACH BOWL MATCHUP
(Note: actual lines may vary)
NEW ORLEANS BOWL, 12/17/02, NORTH TEXAS vs CINCINNATI (-8.5, o/u 46.5): The second ever New Orleans Bowl sees North Texas return after the Eagles were beaten by Colorado St last year 45-20 as a 12 point dog. North Texas came into that game 5-6, this year they are 7-5.
GMAC Bowl, 12/18/02, LOUISVILLE vs MARSHALL (-2.5, o/u 60.5): Last year’s GMAC Bowl game was the highest scoring bowl game ever as Marshall beat East Carolina 64-61. The underdog has won three in a row SU & ATS in this bowl game previously known as the Mobile Alabama Bowl.
TANGERINE BOWL, 12/23/02, CLEMSON vs TEXAS TECH (-5.5, o/u 67): This is the 2nd installment of the reincarnated Tangerine Bowl after Pittsburgh defeated NC State last year 34-19. Tech comes in having lost four straight bowl games, all as a favorite.
LAS VEGAS BOWL, 12/25/02, NEW MEXICO vs UCLA (-10, o/u 56): In the last five lined Las Vegas Bowl games, the underdog has gone 4-0-1 ATS, including last year’s game when Utah beat USC 10-6 as a 3-1/2 point underdog.
HAWAII BOWL, 12/25/02, TULANE vs HAWAII (-12, o/u 62): Hawaii plays its fourth ever bowl game, and the third at its home field in Honolulu, as after a one year hiatus, the Christmas Day bowl game in Hawaii returns. The underdog had covered three in a row prior to that.
MOTOR CITY BOWL, 12/26/02, TOLEDO vs BOSTON COLLEGE (-5, o/u 61): Toledo returns to the Motor City Bowl for the second straight year after beating Cincinnati last year 23-16. Including that game, the MAC team in this bowl has won and covered four straight.
INSIGHT BOWL, 12/26/02, OREGON ST vs PITTSBURGH (pk, o/u 46): The second year in a row that this bowl is played at Bank One Ballpark. Pittsburgh last played in this game in 2000. The OVER is 4-2-1 in the last seven of the Insight (.com) bowl.
HOUSTON BOWL, 12/27/02, SOUTHERN MISS vs OKLAHOMA ST (-7, o/u 48.5): First ever bowl game played at Reliant Stadium, as this bowl, formerly known as the GalleryFurniture.com bowl was played at the Astrodome. Overs/Unders & Favorite/Underdogs are all split 1-1 in the previous two games.
INDEPENDENCE BOWL, 12/27/02, MISSISSIPPI vs NEBRASKA (-4, o/u 51): The SEC representative in the last seven Independence Bowl games is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS. The underdog has covered the last four games.
HOLIDAY BOWL, 12/27/02, ARIZONA ST vs KANSAS ST (-17, o/u 62): The last three times the Holiday Bowl had a double digit favorite the underdog covered. Also, the Pac 10 team has covered the last four Holiday Bowl games, all as an underdog.
CONTINENTAL TIRE BOWL, 12/28/02, VIRGINIA vs WEST VIRGINIA (-5, o/u 49.5): The inaugural game in this Bowl. Also, the first bowl game ever played at Ericsson Stadium in Charlotte. Both of these neighboring state schools return to bowl play after a one year absence.
ALAMO BOWL, 12/28/02, WISCONSIN vs COLORADO (-8, o/u 52): The Big Ten team is 6-1 SU & ATS in the last seven games of the Alamo Bowl since the format changed, matching representatives of the Big 12 and Big Ten.
MUSIC CITY BOWL, 12/30/02, MINNESOTA vs ARKANSAS (-8.5, o/u 48): The Big East team was 4-0 SU & ATS in the previous Music City Bowls. Unfortunately, that conference isn’t represented this year. The underdog has covered the last three.
SEATTLE BOWL, 12/30/02, WAKE FOREST vs OREGON (-6, o/u 57): The inaugural Seattle Bowl was held last year when Georgia Tech defeated Stanford 24-14 as a 6 point underdog. This game matches the Sun Bowl for the worst records of the participants, a combined 13-11.
HUMANITARIAN BOWL, 12/31/02, IOWA ST vs BOISE ST (-10, o/u 68): The third time that Boise St plays in its host bowl game. The Broncos are 2-0 SU & ATS in the previous two. In all, the OVER is 4-1 in the history of the Humanitarian Bowl.
SUN BOWL, 12/31/02, PURDUE vs WASHINGTON (-3.5, o/u 58): The Sun Bowl could legitimately be renamed the underdog bowl, as the dog has covered the last seven games. However, the favorite has won each of the last two Sun Bowl games straight up.
LIBERTY BOWL, 12/31/02, TCU vs COLORADO ST (-5, o/u 53): The Liberty Bowl has been one of the lowest scoring bowl games over the past decade. Consistently burdened by total in the 60’s, this game has gone UNDER in nine of the last 10.
SILICON VALLEY CLASSIC, 12/31/02, FRESNO ST vs GEORGIA TECH (-3.5, o/u 47.5): Fresno St makes its third straight appearance in the Silicon Valley Classic. The Bulldogs have lost the last two as favorites, both SU & ATS. This year they are the underdog????
PEACH BOWL, 12/31/02, MARYLAND (-1, o/u 47) vs TENNESSEE: The representative of the SEC in the Peach Bowl has compiled a 4-1 SU & ATS record over the last five years. The lone defeat came last year however, as Auburn fell to North Carolina, 16-10.
SAN FRANCISCO BOWL, 12/31/02, AIR FORCE vs VIRGINIA TECH (-11.5, o/u 54.5): San Francisco’s Pac Bell Park hosts its first bowl game ever. The game matches two run oriented teams that bolted out of the gate in 2002, only to stumble mid-season. Start time on the East Coast is 10:30 PM!
COTTON BOWL, 1/1/03, LSU vs TEXAS (-10, o/u 46.5): Texas makes its third appearance since ’99 in its backyard New Year’s Day bowl. The UNDER has dominated the winning wagers in this bowl game, converting in six of the last seven games.
OUTBACK BOWL, 1/1/03, MICHIGAN vs FLORIDA (-1.5, o/u 47): Last year’s 31-28 South Carolina win over Ohio St marked the first time in six years that an Outback Bowl went OVER the total. It also improved the SEC’s record over the Big Ten in this game to 5-1 SU & ATS.
GATOR BOWL, 1/1/03, NC STATE vs NOTRE DAME (pk, o/u 40): Not counting last year’s Gator Bowl in which Florida St beat Virginia Tech 45-17 in a pick em’ game, the favorite is on a 5-0 SU & ATS run in the last five Gator Bowl games.
CAPITAL ONE BOWL, 1/1/03, PENN STATE (-4.5, o/u 50) vs AUBURN: In this bowl game, formerly known as the Florida Citrus Bowl, the underdog has covered three of the last four, though Tennessee won easily last year against Michigan. Also, five of the last six games have gone OVER the total.
ROSE BOWL, 1/1/03, WASHINGTON ST vs OKLAHOMA (-6, o/u 55): Prior to last year’s national title game win and cover by Miami, the underdog was on a five game ATS winning streak in the bowl game known as "the Grandaddy of them all".
SUGAR BOWL, 1/1/03, FLORIDA ST vs GEORGIA (-2.5, o/u 51.5): Florida St makes its fifth appearance in the Sugar Bowl since ’95. The favorite has dominated the recent action in this game, winning the last six straight up and going 5-1 ATS in that span.
ORANGE BOWL, 1/2/03, IOWA vs USC (-5.5, o/u 57): The Orange Bowl has been one of the most lopsided bowl games over the past several years with just one of the last six games being decided by a single digit margin. Favorites are on a 4-1 SU & ATS stretch in the Orange Bowl.
FIESTA BOWL, 1/3/03, OHIO ST vs MIAMI (-13, o/u 50.5): The fifth annual battle for the BCS title and national championship. The previous games have been split 2-2 by the favorite and underdog and three of the games have gone UNDER. The straight up winner is 4-0 ATS.
Good luck with the games, and best wishes for a warm and happy holiday season from everyone at *******.com.
For complete handicapping breakdowns on every bowl game, including situational systems, score and stat projections, team trends, line movement analysis, historical matchup data, and much, much more, visit ******* today at www.*******.com.
Situations, and Projections
By Steve Makinen
*******.com
It seems like just yesterday that I was writing about how football was back and what a great season it was going to be. Well it was, but it sure did go quick. So here we are, time to go "bowling" once again, my favorite time of the year. From all early indications on the *******.com bowl game FoxSheets, there are a number of strong plays this year which could lead to another wonderful holiday season! I’ve started to layout my recipe for winners already and it includes a great mix of favorites, underdogs, overs, and unders.
But how do I come up with the right mix? What exactly should I look for in handicapping the bowl games? It’s not an exact science but in my experience, there are a number of factors to consider, including but not limited to:
1) Team rushing strength: Usually the team with the stronger rushing game will control the line of scrimmage and have great chance of winning and covering.
2) Momentum of the teams: In my own estimation, a team riding a winning streak will generally continue to play well in its bowl game. Alternatively, I believe that the effect of a losing streak going into a bowl game is of lesser importance as the team has had the time to regroup.
3) Bowl placement: Often a team’s motivation in a bowl game hinges upon their satisfaction with the bid it received. Some teams are elated with where they are playing while others may feel they’ve been robbed. It can lead to unexpected levels of performance when game time comes around. I’ve found this motivation factor particularly important in higher spread games.
4) Past successes have taught me that the stats and trends can’t be ignored. I wouldn’t and couldn’t make a confident selection without consulting my FoxSheets first! There is no substitute for reliable, accurate, indepth analysis.
With the holiday spirit mind, the staff at *******.com would once again like to offer up a sample of some trends and analyses from this year’s bowl games. For the most in-depth handicapping information available for every bowl game, visit us today at *******.com. In the meantime, enjoy the following and hopefully it helps you on your road to a successful and rewarding bowl season.
2002 TEAM PERFORMANCE TRENDS
Which are the HOT teams coming into this year’s bowl games?
- IOWA was 6-0 SU & ATS in its final six games of the regular season.
- TENNESSEE won its final three games of the season SU & ATS, with consecutive shutouts in the final two.
- AUBURN closed the regular season on a 5-1 ATS stretch.
- KANSAS STATE was 5-0 SU & ATS to end the season, outscoring its opponents 253-30.
- OKLAHOMA closed the regular season on a 6-2 ATS run, its best stretch since the beginning of the 2000 season.
- OKLAHOMA STATE comes into its bowl game vs SOUTHERN MISS on a 5-1 SU & ATS run.
- USC is on a six game SU & ATS winning streak as it prepares to battle IOWA in the Rose Bowl.
- MIAMI enters its second straight national title game with a 34 game winning streak.
- BOSTON COLLEGE heads into the Motor City Bowl on a 5-1 ATS stretch.
- WEST VIRGINIA has the nation’s longest ATS winning streak at seven games.
- CINCINNATI covered six of its last seven games of the 2002 season.
- TULANE finished the regular season on a 6-1 ATS run.
- NEW MEXICO enters its Christmas Day bowl game vs UCLA on a five game ATS winning streak.
- BOISE STATE has a 10 game SU winning streak and is 9-1 ATS in that span.
Which teams are playing POORLY heading into their bowl games?
- MINNESOTA was 0-4 SU & ATS to end the season and were outscored by 22.5 ppg in that span.
- ARKANSAS won three of its last four games SU to end the season, but was 0-4 ATS.
- IOWA STATE was 1-5 SU & ATS in the last six games of the year, including a 17 point home loss to Connecticut.
- OREGON was 1-5 SU & ATS to end the regular season.
- SOUTHERN MISS closed the year on a 1-7-1 ATS stretch and was just 2-8-1 ATS overall.
- FRESNO STATE has covered the spread just once in its last six games.
- HAWAII was 4-1 SU to end the regular season but just 1-4 ATS.
PAST BOWL PERFORMANCE TRENDS
The STRONG bowl teams:
- PENN STATE is 6-2 SU & ATS in its last eight bowl games.
- GEORGIA is on a 4-1 SU & ATS run in its last five bowl games.
- LSU has won five bowl games in a row SU and is 4-1 ATS in that span.
- OLE MISS is 4-1 SU & ATS in bowl games since ’92.
- NEBRASKA is on a 6-2 ATS run in its last eight bowl contests.
- Despite losing last season, COLORADO is on a 6-1 SU & ATS stretch in bowl games.
- WASHINGTON is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games.
- OREGON is on a stretch of 4-1 SU & ATS in bowl games since ’97.
- MIAMI has won five straight bowl games SU & ATS, all by double digit margins.
- BOSTON COLLEGE comes into its bowl game on a 4-1 SU & ATS bowl run.
- BOISE STATE is 2-0 SU & ATS in its only two previous bowl game.
- MARSHALL is on a four game SU & ATS bowl winning streak.
The WEAK bowl teams:
- OHIO STATE is 1-8 ATS in its last nine bowl games.
- MINNESOTA has lost its last three bowl games, both SU & ATS.
- AUBURN is 1-4 ATS in its bowl games since ’95.
- TEXAS has covered just once in its last six bowl games.
- TEXAS TECH has lost four straight bowl games, both SU & ATS, and all four as a favorite.
- UCLA is 1-4 SU & ATS in bowl games since ’93.
- VIRGINIA has lost four straight bowl games, both SU & ATS.
- NOTRE DAME hasn’t won a bowl game since January ’94 and is 1-4 ATS in that span.
MISCELLANEOUS FACTS FROM THE
2002-03 BOWL SEASON
- OHIO STATE is a double digit underdog for just the second time in six seasons.
- PENN STATE returns to a bowl games after a two year hiatus, the longest such stretch in the 37 year Joe Paterno era.
- TEXAS plays its eighth straight bowl game as a favorite.
- OKLAHOMA STATE plays in just its second bowl game since ’88.
- WAKE FOREST and PURDUE received bowl bids despite 6-6 records.
- FLORIDA STATE is 3-1 SU & ATS in the Sugar Bowl since ’95.
- NEW MEXICO plays in its first bowl game since ’97 and just its second since ’61.
- BOISE STATE plays its third bowl game ever, and coincidentally its third Humanitarian Bowl.
There are several rematches of recent bowls. They include:
- PURDUE and WASHINGTON met in the ’00 Rose Bowl. The Huskies won 34-24 as a 1-1/2 point dog.
- PENN STATE and AUBURN played the ’95 Outback Bowl. PENN STATE won 43-14 in that game.
- MARYLAND and TENNESSEE played each other in the ’83 Citrus Bowl & ’84 Sun Bowl. They split those games.
- OREGON and WAKE FOREST were the opponents in the ’92 Independence Bowl. Wake won that game 39-35.
- The ’98 Motor City Bowl matched LOUISVILLE and MARSHALL, who won 49-28. They meet again in this year’s GMAC Bowl.
VARIOUS MOTIVATIONAL FACTORS
As noted earlier, a team’s motivation can play a huge role in how it performs in a game. Motivation can come from countless number of factors though and several situations have arisen this year that could influence the upcoming games. Think about the following and refer back to these after the bowl season to see how they affected each game.
- LOUISVILLE was the clear favorite in the minds of the preseason prognosticators’ not only for the Conference-USA title but also possibly for a BCS spot. Five losses later, they are left facing MARSHALL from the MAC in the low profile GMAC Bowl.
- Just weeks ago, TEXAS TECH was battling OKLAHOMA for a spot in the Big 12 title game. A 45 point loss in that game knocked them back to a Tangerine Bowl matchup with unranked Clemson.
- UCLA fired Head Coach Bob Toledo just days after the regular season ending loss to WASHINGTON STATE. The last time a coach was replaced heading into the bowl game was in ’99 when Bobby Williams took over for Nick Saban and rallied MICHIGAN STATE to a 37-34 defeat of Florida in the Citrus Bowl.
- PITTSBURGH was staring at a possible New Year’s Day bowl until a season finale home loss to WEST VIRGINIA knocked them back to a December 26th date in Phoenix with OREGON ST.
- OKLAHOMA STATE earned its first bowl bid since ’97 by winning one of the biggest games in school history: a 38-28 decision over rival OKLAHOMA in the season finale.
- NEBRASKA, accustomed to playing high profile bowl games and national championships, is left to battling MISSISSIPPI for Independence Bowl bragging rights after a 7-6 regular season.
- KANSAS STATE, whose only two losses are by a total of seven points (to COLORADO & TEXAS), has disappointedly accepted a bid to the Holiday Bowl against 8-5 ARIZONA STATE.
- WISCONSIN has accepted an Alamo Bowl bid despite going just 2-6 in Big Ten play. The Badgers will face a COLORADO team that was one Big 12 title game win away from a trip to the BCS Rose Bowl.
- MINNESOTA has accepted a bid to the Music City Bowl against ARKANSAS despite losing its last four games by a margin of over 22 ppg.
- OREGON somehow turned a 6-0 start and top 10 ranking into a Seattle Bowl appearance against 6-6 WAKE FOREST.
- IOWA STATE, one of the nation’s biggest early season surprises finds itself installed as a 10 point underdog to WAC champion BOISE STATE in the Humanitarian Bowl after flaming out to end the year.
- TENNESSEE, destined for BCS stardom in the preseason, lost four games in 2002 and finds itself playing on New Year’s Eve against MARYLAND in a much lesser paid Peach Bowl.
- Just a short time ago, both NC STATE and NOTRE DAME were undefeated late in the season and eyeing BCS Bowl bids. A few defeats later and they meet in the lesser profile Gator Bowl. The Irish continued to lobby the BCS even after the 44-13 pounding they received at USC.
- Despite losing four games in the regular season, FLORIDA STATE has "earned" a BCS bowl bid via its ACC Championship. The Seminoles reward is a Sugar Bowl date with 12-1 GEORGIA, a team in the top 10 nearly all year.
- Oddsmakers have installed 12-0 OHIO STATE as a 13 point underdog to defending national champion MIAMI in the BCS title game. Ironically, the Buckeyes defense yielded only 13.25 ppg in its unbeaten regular season.
TRENDS, FACTS, & FIGURES
FROM EACH BOWL MATCHUP
(Note: actual lines may vary)
NEW ORLEANS BOWL, 12/17/02, NORTH TEXAS vs CINCINNATI (-8.5, o/u 46.5): The second ever New Orleans Bowl sees North Texas return after the Eagles were beaten by Colorado St last year 45-20 as a 12 point dog. North Texas came into that game 5-6, this year they are 7-5.
GMAC Bowl, 12/18/02, LOUISVILLE vs MARSHALL (-2.5, o/u 60.5): Last year’s GMAC Bowl game was the highest scoring bowl game ever as Marshall beat East Carolina 64-61. The underdog has won three in a row SU & ATS in this bowl game previously known as the Mobile Alabama Bowl.
TANGERINE BOWL, 12/23/02, CLEMSON vs TEXAS TECH (-5.5, o/u 67): This is the 2nd installment of the reincarnated Tangerine Bowl after Pittsburgh defeated NC State last year 34-19. Tech comes in having lost four straight bowl games, all as a favorite.
LAS VEGAS BOWL, 12/25/02, NEW MEXICO vs UCLA (-10, o/u 56): In the last five lined Las Vegas Bowl games, the underdog has gone 4-0-1 ATS, including last year’s game when Utah beat USC 10-6 as a 3-1/2 point underdog.
HAWAII BOWL, 12/25/02, TULANE vs HAWAII (-12, o/u 62): Hawaii plays its fourth ever bowl game, and the third at its home field in Honolulu, as after a one year hiatus, the Christmas Day bowl game in Hawaii returns. The underdog had covered three in a row prior to that.
MOTOR CITY BOWL, 12/26/02, TOLEDO vs BOSTON COLLEGE (-5, o/u 61): Toledo returns to the Motor City Bowl for the second straight year after beating Cincinnati last year 23-16. Including that game, the MAC team in this bowl has won and covered four straight.
INSIGHT BOWL, 12/26/02, OREGON ST vs PITTSBURGH (pk, o/u 46): The second year in a row that this bowl is played at Bank One Ballpark. Pittsburgh last played in this game in 2000. The OVER is 4-2-1 in the last seven of the Insight (.com) bowl.
HOUSTON BOWL, 12/27/02, SOUTHERN MISS vs OKLAHOMA ST (-7, o/u 48.5): First ever bowl game played at Reliant Stadium, as this bowl, formerly known as the GalleryFurniture.com bowl was played at the Astrodome. Overs/Unders & Favorite/Underdogs are all split 1-1 in the previous two games.
INDEPENDENCE BOWL, 12/27/02, MISSISSIPPI vs NEBRASKA (-4, o/u 51): The SEC representative in the last seven Independence Bowl games is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS. The underdog has covered the last four games.
HOLIDAY BOWL, 12/27/02, ARIZONA ST vs KANSAS ST (-17, o/u 62): The last three times the Holiday Bowl had a double digit favorite the underdog covered. Also, the Pac 10 team has covered the last four Holiday Bowl games, all as an underdog.
CONTINENTAL TIRE BOWL, 12/28/02, VIRGINIA vs WEST VIRGINIA (-5, o/u 49.5): The inaugural game in this Bowl. Also, the first bowl game ever played at Ericsson Stadium in Charlotte. Both of these neighboring state schools return to bowl play after a one year absence.
ALAMO BOWL, 12/28/02, WISCONSIN vs COLORADO (-8, o/u 52): The Big Ten team is 6-1 SU & ATS in the last seven games of the Alamo Bowl since the format changed, matching representatives of the Big 12 and Big Ten.
MUSIC CITY BOWL, 12/30/02, MINNESOTA vs ARKANSAS (-8.5, o/u 48): The Big East team was 4-0 SU & ATS in the previous Music City Bowls. Unfortunately, that conference isn’t represented this year. The underdog has covered the last three.
SEATTLE BOWL, 12/30/02, WAKE FOREST vs OREGON (-6, o/u 57): The inaugural Seattle Bowl was held last year when Georgia Tech defeated Stanford 24-14 as a 6 point underdog. This game matches the Sun Bowl for the worst records of the participants, a combined 13-11.
HUMANITARIAN BOWL, 12/31/02, IOWA ST vs BOISE ST (-10, o/u 68): The third time that Boise St plays in its host bowl game. The Broncos are 2-0 SU & ATS in the previous two. In all, the OVER is 4-1 in the history of the Humanitarian Bowl.
SUN BOWL, 12/31/02, PURDUE vs WASHINGTON (-3.5, o/u 58): The Sun Bowl could legitimately be renamed the underdog bowl, as the dog has covered the last seven games. However, the favorite has won each of the last two Sun Bowl games straight up.
LIBERTY BOWL, 12/31/02, TCU vs COLORADO ST (-5, o/u 53): The Liberty Bowl has been one of the lowest scoring bowl games over the past decade. Consistently burdened by total in the 60’s, this game has gone UNDER in nine of the last 10.
SILICON VALLEY CLASSIC, 12/31/02, FRESNO ST vs GEORGIA TECH (-3.5, o/u 47.5): Fresno St makes its third straight appearance in the Silicon Valley Classic. The Bulldogs have lost the last two as favorites, both SU & ATS. This year they are the underdog????
PEACH BOWL, 12/31/02, MARYLAND (-1, o/u 47) vs TENNESSEE: The representative of the SEC in the Peach Bowl has compiled a 4-1 SU & ATS record over the last five years. The lone defeat came last year however, as Auburn fell to North Carolina, 16-10.
SAN FRANCISCO BOWL, 12/31/02, AIR FORCE vs VIRGINIA TECH (-11.5, o/u 54.5): San Francisco’s Pac Bell Park hosts its first bowl game ever. The game matches two run oriented teams that bolted out of the gate in 2002, only to stumble mid-season. Start time on the East Coast is 10:30 PM!
COTTON BOWL, 1/1/03, LSU vs TEXAS (-10, o/u 46.5): Texas makes its third appearance since ’99 in its backyard New Year’s Day bowl. The UNDER has dominated the winning wagers in this bowl game, converting in six of the last seven games.
OUTBACK BOWL, 1/1/03, MICHIGAN vs FLORIDA (-1.5, o/u 47): Last year’s 31-28 South Carolina win over Ohio St marked the first time in six years that an Outback Bowl went OVER the total. It also improved the SEC’s record over the Big Ten in this game to 5-1 SU & ATS.
GATOR BOWL, 1/1/03, NC STATE vs NOTRE DAME (pk, o/u 40): Not counting last year’s Gator Bowl in which Florida St beat Virginia Tech 45-17 in a pick em’ game, the favorite is on a 5-0 SU & ATS run in the last five Gator Bowl games.
CAPITAL ONE BOWL, 1/1/03, PENN STATE (-4.5, o/u 50) vs AUBURN: In this bowl game, formerly known as the Florida Citrus Bowl, the underdog has covered three of the last four, though Tennessee won easily last year against Michigan. Also, five of the last six games have gone OVER the total.
ROSE BOWL, 1/1/03, WASHINGTON ST vs OKLAHOMA (-6, o/u 55): Prior to last year’s national title game win and cover by Miami, the underdog was on a five game ATS winning streak in the bowl game known as "the Grandaddy of them all".
SUGAR BOWL, 1/1/03, FLORIDA ST vs GEORGIA (-2.5, o/u 51.5): Florida St makes its fifth appearance in the Sugar Bowl since ’95. The favorite has dominated the recent action in this game, winning the last six straight up and going 5-1 ATS in that span.
ORANGE BOWL, 1/2/03, IOWA vs USC (-5.5, o/u 57): The Orange Bowl has been one of the most lopsided bowl games over the past several years with just one of the last six games being decided by a single digit margin. Favorites are on a 4-1 SU & ATS stretch in the Orange Bowl.
FIESTA BOWL, 1/3/03, OHIO ST vs MIAMI (-13, o/u 50.5): The fifth annual battle for the BCS title and national championship. The previous games have been split 2-2 by the favorite and underdog and three of the games have gone UNDER. The straight up winner is 4-0 ATS.
Good luck with the games, and best wishes for a warm and happy holiday season from everyone at *******.com.
For complete handicapping breakdowns on every bowl game, including situational systems, score and stat projections, team trends, line movement analysis, historical matchup data, and much, much more, visit ******* today at www.*******.com.