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Timing is everything, the saying goes, and it holds true in football betting as well.
Oddsmakers are conscious of the kickoff time for each game on Sunday because of the popularity of parlay bets. As a result, the late afternoon, Sunday night and Monday night games are all shaded to some degree.
“Those primetime and bigger afternoon games, they draw more money,” says Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. “We shade the favorites a little bit higher as well as the total. We don’t want our clients to have more liability and this is one way of preventing that.”
Normally the bulk of each week’s schedule fits into the 1 p.m. ET start time. As the day progresses there are fewer games with more weight attached to each because of the parlay cards.
With these facts in mind you’d think there’d be an advantage for bettors playing the first group of games. Playing the over and the favorite should convert at a higher percentage than the later matchups, but that hasn’t been the case so far this season.
Favored teams are 34-34-4 against the spread in early games and 26-31 in later contests. Over is the right play 49 percent of the time earlier in the day (45-46-1) and 51 percent afterwards (28-27-2).
This year’s numbers suggest there’s no real edge, but the bookmakers swear it’s something they take into account.
“You really have to pay attention to them,” Bob Scucci, director of race and sport for Coast Hotels, says of the later matches. “You have the same amount of people betting on fewer games. It’s more concentrated.
“I’m less worried when there are five or six (late afternoon) games. When there’s just two or three we have to win them all.”
The two best matchups so far this season both fell in the late time slot with mixed returns for the books. The public took the cash in Week 6 when the favored New England Patriots beat the Dallas Cowboys, with the game also playing over the 52 total.
The house was the winner of Super Bowl XLI ½. The Indianapolis Colts covered and the AFC slugfest finished well below the 56 total.
Of course that win was ruined with the results from the last two games of Week 9. The Sunday and Monday nighters were shootouts with the underdog losing each one.
Although this season’s stats don’t necessarily support the notion, Scucci says there’s more value playing the favorite and over during the first set of games and doing the opposite later in the day.
“Wiseguys like to play the under and the dog, especially in the late games.”
The highest-profile games this weekend are both scheduled in the later time slots. The Cowboys and the New York Giants face off at 4:15 p.m. while the Colts play the San Diego Chargers in the Sunday night game.
Oddsmakers are conscious of the kickoff time for each game on Sunday because of the popularity of parlay bets. As a result, the late afternoon, Sunday night and Monday night games are all shaded to some degree.
“Those primetime and bigger afternoon games, they draw more money,” says Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. “We shade the favorites a little bit higher as well as the total. We don’t want our clients to have more liability and this is one way of preventing that.”
Normally the bulk of each week’s schedule fits into the 1 p.m. ET start time. As the day progresses there are fewer games with more weight attached to each because of the parlay cards.
With these facts in mind you’d think there’d be an advantage for bettors playing the first group of games. Playing the over and the favorite should convert at a higher percentage than the later matchups, but that hasn’t been the case so far this season.
Favored teams are 34-34-4 against the spread in early games and 26-31 in later contests. Over is the right play 49 percent of the time earlier in the day (45-46-1) and 51 percent afterwards (28-27-2).
This year’s numbers suggest there’s no real edge, but the bookmakers swear it’s something they take into account.
“You really have to pay attention to them,” Bob Scucci, director of race and sport for Coast Hotels, says of the later matches. “You have the same amount of people betting on fewer games. It’s more concentrated.
“I’m less worried when there are five or six (late afternoon) games. When there’s just two or three we have to win them all.”
The two best matchups so far this season both fell in the late time slot with mixed returns for the books. The public took the cash in Week 6 when the favored New England Patriots beat the Dallas Cowboys, with the game also playing over the 52 total.
The house was the winner of Super Bowl XLI ½. The Indianapolis Colts covered and the AFC slugfest finished well below the 56 total.
Of course that win was ruined with the results from the last two games of Week 9. The Sunday and Monday nighters were shootouts with the underdog losing each one.
Although this season’s stats don’t necessarily support the notion, Scucci says there’s more value playing the favorite and over during the first set of games and doing the opposite later in the day.
“Wiseguys like to play the under and the dog, especially in the late games.”
The highest-profile games this weekend are both scheduled in the later time slots. The Cowboys and the New York Giants face off at 4:15 p.m. while the Colts play the San Diego Chargers in the Sunday night game.