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THIS GAME KICKS OFF THE BOWL SEASON FOR THIS YEAR. I WILL PERIODICALLY POST A FEW BOWL PLAYS BUT MOST OF THE PLAYS WILL GO THOSE SIGNED UP FOR THE BOWL PACKAGE. AS AN INDICATION OF HOW MUCH TO PLAY PER UNIT I WILL BE BETTING $150/UNIT AND I DO NOT POST A RATED SELECTION IF I DO NOT PLAY IT. IF I POST AN OPINION PLAY THAT USUALLY MEANS I DID NOT PLAY IT UNLESS I INDICATE OTHERWISE. I WILL GIVE THOSE 1 MORE DAY IF THEY WANT TO SIGN UP FOR THE BOWL PACKAGE WHICH INCLUDES ALL THE TIPSHEETS AND NEWSLETTERS. [email protected] THIS IS JUST A SAMPLE OF WHAT EVERY GAME WILL LOOK LIKE.
New Orleans Bowl - New Orleans, LA
NORTH TEXAS (7 - 5) vs. CINCINNATI (7 - 6)
Week 16 Tuesday, 12/17/2002 7:00 PM
VS. 
333 NORTH TEXAS 45.5
334 CINCINNATI -8
Power Rating Line
The power rating system is based on recent game results. The section should be used to compare the relative strength of the two teams involved. A power line is calculated using both teams ratings and home field advantage. Where the power line differs significantly from the current line, the team with the edge is indicated.
Power Rating
NORTH TEXAS
CINCINNATI -11
Edge Cincinnati
Current Season Results
NORTH TEXAS - Season Results
Date Opponent Score SU Line ATS Tot. O/U
8/31/2002 @ TEXAS 0-27 L 33.5 W
9/7/2002 NICHOLLS ST 23-0 W
9/14/2002 @ ALABAMA 7-33 L 22 L
9/21/2002 @ TCU 10-16 L 8 W
9/28/2002 @ ARIZONA 9-14 L 15 W 40 U
10/5/2002 S FLORIDA 17-24 L 3 L
10/19/2002 @ ARKANSAS ST 13-10 W -7.5 L
10/26/2002 @ LA LAFAYETTE 27-0 W -4 W
11/2/2002 LA MONROE 41-2 W -18.5 W
11/9/2002 IDAHO 10-0 W -16.5 L
11/16/2002 NEW MEXICO ST 38-27 W -6.5 W
11/23/2002 @ MIDDLE TENN ST 30-20 W 1 W
12/17/2002 *CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI - Season Results
Date Opponent Score SU Line ATS Tot. O/U
9/2/2002 TCU 36-29 W -5 W 49 O
9/14/2002 W VIRGINIA 32-35 L -3 L
9/21/2002 OHIO ST 19-23 L 20 W 53 U
9/28/2002 @ TEMPLE 35-22 W -3.5 W
10/5/2002 MIAMI OHIO 26-31 L -5 L
10/12/2002 @ TULANE 17-35 L -5.5 L 60.5 U
10/19/2002 @ SOUTHERN MISS 14-23 L 11.5 W 45 U
10/26/2002 MEMPHIS 48-10 W -7.5 W
11/7/2002 @ LOUISVILLE 24-14 W 9 W 55 U
11/16/2002 HOUSTON 47-14 W -16.5 W
11/23/2002 @ HAWAII 19-20 L 4 W 65 U
11/30/2002 UAB 31-23 W -17 L 48 O
12/6/2002 @ E CAROLINA 42-26 W -7 W 55 O
12/17/2002 *NORTH TEXAS
Team Line Action - Where the money is going!
Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to "wise guy's" selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a "read" on a given team. It summarizes both line and total movements. As a general rule, follow the line or total movement when percentages exceed 57% and go against it when they are below 43%.
As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring NORTH TEXAS in this game.
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in NORTH TEXAS games 50% of the time since 1992. (26-26)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in NORTH TEXAS games 55.2% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (16-13)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CINCINNATI games 56% of the time since 1992. (47-37)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CINCINNATI games 63.6% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (21-12)
No Edge.
As indicated by the movement of the total, the betting public is favoring the UNDER in this game.
The betting public is correct when moving the total in NORTH TEXAS games 50% of the time since 1992. (1-1)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in NORTH TEXAS games 50% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (1-1)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CINCINNATI games 47.4% of the time since 1992. (9-10)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CINCINNATI games 36.4% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (4-7)
No Edge.
Key Player Injuries
NORTH TEXAS
LB Justin Claborn Knee Out indefinitely. 9/25
QB Scott Hall Shoulder Out for the season. 10/17
CINCINNATI
DT Mike Wright Knee Out for the season. 8/28
Detailed Writeup
For the second straight season the North Texas Mean Green head to the Big Easy in December for the second annual New Orleans Bowl. This season they find the Cincinnati Bearcats awaiting them. The contest now puts the champion of the Sun Belt Conference against a Conference-USA opponent. North Texas snapped a 42-year bowl drought last season in this bowl, but fell to Colorado State, 45-20 in the inaugural bowl matchup. This marks the first time in school history that North Texas is making back-to-back bowl appearances.
Just 11 days after gaining a share of their first conference title in 38 years, the Bearcats kick off a 28-game bowl bonanza against North Texas in the New Orleans Bowl. Cincinnati (7-6) secured its school-record third straight bowl appearance by defeating East Carolina, 42-26, in its regular season finale. Led by quarterback Gino Guidugli and running back DeMarco McClesky, Cincinnati features a wide-open attack, averaging 30.0 points per game, the second-best total in Conference USA. Guidugli passed for a school-record 3,319 yards and 21 touchdowns, while McClesky rushed for 1,276 yards. Cincinnati suffered a 23-16 loss to Toledo in the Motor City Bowl last season and is 3-3 all-time in bowls.
However, Cincinnati will be facing a North Texas team that is third nationally in scoring defense, allowing only 14.4 points per game. This will be the 17th meeting on the gridiron between these schools, both of whom were members of the MVC together from 1958-70, North Texas holds the slimmest of leads at 8-7-1 all-time.
Cincinnati closed the regular season as the leader in both total offense and passing offense in Conference-USA. In 13 games, UC averaged 263.5 yards passing and 404.3 yards of total offense, to rank 23rd and 29th in the nation, respectively. The Bearcats have had at least 400 yards of total offense in nine of their 13 games this season. Gino Guidugli leads the offense for the Bearcats and was selected to the all Conference-USA Second-Team. Guidugli completed 239-of-438 passes for 3,319 yards, 21 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. By far his favorite target has been First Team all-conference choice (for the second consecutive season) LaDaris Vann, who caught 70 passes for 844 yards and five touchdowns. Vann caught the most balls, but there's no doubt that when Guidugli wanted a big play he sought out Jon Olinger. Olinger pulled in 50 passes, but totaled 1,007 yards and seven touchdowns, and ranked 40th nationally among wideouts in yards receiving per game (77.46). The Cincinnati defense started out poorly, but has moved up to rank as one of the premiere defenses in its conference and near the top nationally. After beating TCU in overtime and losing to West Virginia, the Bearcats ranked near the bottom of every defensive category, but finished the season 24th in total defense nationally, allowing just 318.1 ypg. The defense is led by senior defensive end Antwan Peek. A dominant force on the defensive line, Peek ranks first on the squad with 97 tackles and led Conference USA in fumbles caused (seven) and fumbles recovered (five). Peek led the team with 21 TFLs, six quarterback sacks and holds the UC career marks in both categories, owning 56 TFLs and 27 quarterback sacks in his career. He has scored a pair of defensive touchdowns this year, returning fumbles for touchdowns against both Louisville and Houston.
The North Texas offense has not been very good this season, although it has obviously been good enough to garner a winning record and this bowl bid. The team ranks 106th in the nation in scoring offense averaging 18.8 ppg. The Mean Green are definitely built around the run, as they average 181.7 ypg on the ground, ranking them 41st in the nation. The run game is centered on unanimous First-Team all-Sun Belt Conference selection Kevin Galbreath, who rushed for 1,168 yards and eight touchdowns on 244 carries. Adding to UNT's rushing total is Patrick Cobbs, who carried 155 times this season, for 732 yards and seven scores. The Mean Green passing game never got off the ground, and ranks 113th out of 117 Division I-A schools, averaging a minute 100.1 ypg. Redshirt freshman quarterback Andrew Smith has completed 82-of-174 passes for 1,080 yards, with seven touchdowns and eight interceptions.
They say,"Offense sells tickets, defense wins championships." No-where is this more true than Denton, Texas. The Mean Green rank third in the nation in scoring defense, allowing an average of just 14.4 ppg. UNT had three shutouts this season, which tied Texas for the most among all Division I-A teams, and the Mean Green defense allowed only three scoring drives of more than 80 yards all season. The defense allows a mere 121.8 ypg on the ground ranking 29th in the nation, while surrendering just 167.3 ypg through the air (13th in the nation). The unit is led by Sun Belt Conference Defensive Player of the Year Brandon Kennedy. A junior tackle, Kennedy is second in the nation in tackles for loss with 24 and is second in the conference in quarterback sacks with nine. He has also forced three fumbles and recovered three others. Taylor Casey leads the Mean Green defense with 111 tackles, while Don McGee leads the team in takeaways with four interceptions.
The matchup of Cincy's offense and UNT's defense is the story of this game. This should be a classic struggle between both team's best unit. The first thing that Cincinnati must do is find a way to block Kennedy. Double- him, triple him, do something to get him dealt with, so Guidugli can have time to find his receivers and put points on the board. The Cincy defense against the UNT offense is another story. The Mean Green will have no answer for Peek, who may be in the backfield as much as Galbreath. Look for the Bearcats and UNT to play a field position game all night long. With a short time to scout the Mean Green D, Cincy will take time to adjust to their defense. On the other hand, Peek will dominate the line of scrimmage most of the game. With a running attack chewing up the clock and an offense getting adjusted to a new defense, I lean toward a defensive game in this spot.
Projected Score: Cincinnati 21, North Texas 17
PLAY 2* UNITS ON THE UNDER 45.5
New Orleans Bowl - New Orleans, LA
NORTH TEXAS (7 - 5) vs. CINCINNATI (7 - 6)
Week 16 Tuesday, 12/17/2002 7:00 PM
VS. 333 NORTH TEXAS 45.5
334 CINCINNATI -8
Power Rating Line
The power rating system is based on recent game results. The section should be used to compare the relative strength of the two teams involved. A power line is calculated using both teams ratings and home field advantage. Where the power line differs significantly from the current line, the team with the edge is indicated.
Power Rating
NORTH TEXAS
CINCINNATI -11
Edge Cincinnati
Current Season Results
NORTH TEXAS - Season Results
Date Opponent Score SU Line ATS Tot. O/U
8/31/2002 @ TEXAS 0-27 L 33.5 W
9/7/2002 NICHOLLS ST 23-0 W
9/14/2002 @ ALABAMA 7-33 L 22 L
9/21/2002 @ TCU 10-16 L 8 W
9/28/2002 @ ARIZONA 9-14 L 15 W 40 U
10/5/2002 S FLORIDA 17-24 L 3 L
10/19/2002 @ ARKANSAS ST 13-10 W -7.5 L
10/26/2002 @ LA LAFAYETTE 27-0 W -4 W
11/2/2002 LA MONROE 41-2 W -18.5 W
11/9/2002 IDAHO 10-0 W -16.5 L
11/16/2002 NEW MEXICO ST 38-27 W -6.5 W
11/23/2002 @ MIDDLE TENN ST 30-20 W 1 W
12/17/2002 *CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI - Season Results
Date Opponent Score SU Line ATS Tot. O/U
9/2/2002 TCU 36-29 W -5 W 49 O
9/14/2002 W VIRGINIA 32-35 L -3 L
9/21/2002 OHIO ST 19-23 L 20 W 53 U
9/28/2002 @ TEMPLE 35-22 W -3.5 W
10/5/2002 MIAMI OHIO 26-31 L -5 L
10/12/2002 @ TULANE 17-35 L -5.5 L 60.5 U
10/19/2002 @ SOUTHERN MISS 14-23 L 11.5 W 45 U
10/26/2002 MEMPHIS 48-10 W -7.5 W
11/7/2002 @ LOUISVILLE 24-14 W 9 W 55 U
11/16/2002 HOUSTON 47-14 W -16.5 W
11/23/2002 @ HAWAII 19-20 L 4 W 65 U
11/30/2002 UAB 31-23 W -17 L 48 O
12/6/2002 @ E CAROLINA 42-26 W -7 W 55 O
12/17/2002 *NORTH TEXAS
Team Line Action - Where the money is going!
Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to "wise guy's" selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a "read" on a given team. It summarizes both line and total movements. As a general rule, follow the line or total movement when percentages exceed 57% and go against it when they are below 43%.
As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring NORTH TEXAS in this game.
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in NORTH TEXAS games 50% of the time since 1992. (26-26)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in NORTH TEXAS games 55.2% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (16-13)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CINCINNATI games 56% of the time since 1992. (47-37)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CINCINNATI games 63.6% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (21-12)
No Edge.
As indicated by the movement of the total, the betting public is favoring the UNDER in this game.
The betting public is correct when moving the total in NORTH TEXAS games 50% of the time since 1992. (1-1)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in NORTH TEXAS games 50% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (1-1)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CINCINNATI games 47.4% of the time since 1992. (9-10)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CINCINNATI games 36.4% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (4-7)
No Edge.
Key Player Injuries
NORTH TEXAS
LB Justin Claborn Knee Out indefinitely. 9/25
QB Scott Hall Shoulder Out for the season. 10/17
CINCINNATI
DT Mike Wright Knee Out for the season. 8/28
Detailed Writeup
For the second straight season the North Texas Mean Green head to the Big Easy in December for the second annual New Orleans Bowl. This season they find the Cincinnati Bearcats awaiting them. The contest now puts the champion of the Sun Belt Conference against a Conference-USA opponent. North Texas snapped a 42-year bowl drought last season in this bowl, but fell to Colorado State, 45-20 in the inaugural bowl matchup. This marks the first time in school history that North Texas is making back-to-back bowl appearances.
Just 11 days after gaining a share of their first conference title in 38 years, the Bearcats kick off a 28-game bowl bonanza against North Texas in the New Orleans Bowl. Cincinnati (7-6) secured its school-record third straight bowl appearance by defeating East Carolina, 42-26, in its regular season finale. Led by quarterback Gino Guidugli and running back DeMarco McClesky, Cincinnati features a wide-open attack, averaging 30.0 points per game, the second-best total in Conference USA. Guidugli passed for a school-record 3,319 yards and 21 touchdowns, while McClesky rushed for 1,276 yards. Cincinnati suffered a 23-16 loss to Toledo in the Motor City Bowl last season and is 3-3 all-time in bowls.
However, Cincinnati will be facing a North Texas team that is third nationally in scoring defense, allowing only 14.4 points per game. This will be the 17th meeting on the gridiron between these schools, both of whom were members of the MVC together from 1958-70, North Texas holds the slimmest of leads at 8-7-1 all-time.
Cincinnati closed the regular season as the leader in both total offense and passing offense in Conference-USA. In 13 games, UC averaged 263.5 yards passing and 404.3 yards of total offense, to rank 23rd and 29th in the nation, respectively. The Bearcats have had at least 400 yards of total offense in nine of their 13 games this season. Gino Guidugli leads the offense for the Bearcats and was selected to the all Conference-USA Second-Team. Guidugli completed 239-of-438 passes for 3,319 yards, 21 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. By far his favorite target has been First Team all-conference choice (for the second consecutive season) LaDaris Vann, who caught 70 passes for 844 yards and five touchdowns. Vann caught the most balls, but there's no doubt that when Guidugli wanted a big play he sought out Jon Olinger. Olinger pulled in 50 passes, but totaled 1,007 yards and seven touchdowns, and ranked 40th nationally among wideouts in yards receiving per game (77.46). The Cincinnati defense started out poorly, but has moved up to rank as one of the premiere defenses in its conference and near the top nationally. After beating TCU in overtime and losing to West Virginia, the Bearcats ranked near the bottom of every defensive category, but finished the season 24th in total defense nationally, allowing just 318.1 ypg. The defense is led by senior defensive end Antwan Peek. A dominant force on the defensive line, Peek ranks first on the squad with 97 tackles and led Conference USA in fumbles caused (seven) and fumbles recovered (five). Peek led the team with 21 TFLs, six quarterback sacks and holds the UC career marks in both categories, owning 56 TFLs and 27 quarterback sacks in his career. He has scored a pair of defensive touchdowns this year, returning fumbles for touchdowns against both Louisville and Houston.
The North Texas offense has not been very good this season, although it has obviously been good enough to garner a winning record and this bowl bid. The team ranks 106th in the nation in scoring offense averaging 18.8 ppg. The Mean Green are definitely built around the run, as they average 181.7 ypg on the ground, ranking them 41st in the nation. The run game is centered on unanimous First-Team all-Sun Belt Conference selection Kevin Galbreath, who rushed for 1,168 yards and eight touchdowns on 244 carries. Adding to UNT's rushing total is Patrick Cobbs, who carried 155 times this season, for 732 yards and seven scores. The Mean Green passing game never got off the ground, and ranks 113th out of 117 Division I-A schools, averaging a minute 100.1 ypg. Redshirt freshman quarterback Andrew Smith has completed 82-of-174 passes for 1,080 yards, with seven touchdowns and eight interceptions.
They say,"Offense sells tickets, defense wins championships." No-where is this more true than Denton, Texas. The Mean Green rank third in the nation in scoring defense, allowing an average of just 14.4 ppg. UNT had three shutouts this season, which tied Texas for the most among all Division I-A teams, and the Mean Green defense allowed only three scoring drives of more than 80 yards all season. The defense allows a mere 121.8 ypg on the ground ranking 29th in the nation, while surrendering just 167.3 ypg through the air (13th in the nation). The unit is led by Sun Belt Conference Defensive Player of the Year Brandon Kennedy. A junior tackle, Kennedy is second in the nation in tackles for loss with 24 and is second in the conference in quarterback sacks with nine. He has also forced three fumbles and recovered three others. Taylor Casey leads the Mean Green defense with 111 tackles, while Don McGee leads the team in takeaways with four interceptions.
The matchup of Cincy's offense and UNT's defense is the story of this game. This should be a classic struggle between both team's best unit. The first thing that Cincinnati must do is find a way to block Kennedy. Double- him, triple him, do something to get him dealt with, so Guidugli can have time to find his receivers and put points on the board. The Cincy defense against the UNT offense is another story. The Mean Green will have no answer for Peek, who may be in the backfield as much as Galbreath. Look for the Bearcats and UNT to play a field position game all night long. With a short time to scout the Mean Green D, Cincy will take time to adjust to their defense. On the other hand, Peek will dominate the line of scrimmage most of the game. With a running attack chewing up the clock and an offense getting adjusted to a new defense, I lean toward a defensive game in this spot.
Projected Score: Cincinnati 21, North Texas 17
PLAY 2* UNITS ON THE UNDER 45.5