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    OK FOOTBALL NEWSLETTERS WHO WANTS THEM? SIGN UP! ONLY $65 FOR THE ENTIRE SEASON WITH MY PLAYS! HERE IS AN EXAMPLE OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN JUST ONE OF THE MANY YOU WOULD RECEIVE.

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    WINNINGPOINTS NEWSLETTER

    Years of Excellence in SPORTS Handicapping
    Make this an exciting and profitable year with

    Vol 33/52 Wed. August 27, 2003

    College FOOTBALL

    Kansas State over California by 13 (Saturday at Kansas City)

    The Cal Bears in August? Normally, you’d think they’d be in the classrooms or libraries getting a head start on the lessons they might miss when the football season begins. But Jeff Tedford seems to be pushing the program a little harder, and recruiting a little stronger than his predecessors. At first glance, you look at the team names, location of the game, and K-State’s penchant for pounding people in non-conference, and say ‘lay the points.’ Factor in Cal’s loss of QB Kyle Boller to the NFL, and it’s another reason to like Kansas State. But with Cal, you know they’ll be throwing the football a lot. Should their defense cause them to fall behind, they have a group of wide receivers with good credentials. The returning pass-catchers have combined for 160 career receptions, 2,209 receiving yards and 14 TDs. Tedford says 13 of them can play at this level, and that they came into camp “to develop a wide receiving corps which works together for perfection." From their defensive secondary, K-State has lost a first-round NFL pick (#5 overall) Terrence Newman. The rest of the unit hasn’t seen many pass-happy offenses in the Big 12, and the last time they faced Texas Tech, K-State got doubled up 38-19. There really is no way K-State can prepare for whoever is behind center for Cal, and Tedford is confident in his offensive line to provide enough push to make up for the lack of QB experience. Luckily, the K-State offense has an experienced QB Ell Roberson to make something from nothing in several different directions against a cheesy Cal defense. You’ll probably see points scored every time you look up at the screen. KANSAS STATE, 41-28.

    NFL


    ****BEST BET

    Miami* over Atlanta by 16 (Friday)

    The Dolphins are the 0-2 team playing home, a 19-12 ATS situation in the last 10 years which presents itself a handful of times this weekend. Do you play ‘em all and hope to go 60%? Do you play only some of them and risk playing the wrong ones while the others win? Or do you ignore ‘em and use other games? What’s a bettor to do? With star quarterback Michael Vick injured and out for Atlanta, the number on the Dolphins will be bumped up further. Miami has been dealing with its own injury bug, yet put up 19 and 24 points the last two games. Veteran QBs Fiedler and Griese can only get better as their pre-season exposure increases, and the Atlanta defense isn’t exactly known for shutting down opponents who can score points. As you know, their back-ups have already blown an 18-point lead against Green Bay – no Favre – in Week 1. The Falcons are also a speed-oriented offense that loses some of its edge playing on grass. Miami’s defense should hold down Doug Johnson and Kurt Kittner, perhaps even pick Kittner off a few times. The second-year kid was picked off in a very crucial stage of the game last week. Neither Johnson nor Kittner has touch of say, Byron Leftwich, the guy who beat Miami in the final moments last week. And neither can make something from nothing the way Vick normally does. Atlanta figures to have a few more negative-yardage plays than usual. MIAMI, 26-10.

    ***BEST BET

    Oakland* over Minnesota by 15 (Friday)


    The Vikings are making a “so what” long trip to start at a later-than-normal time for them. They are also traveling off a short week to face an opponent that will have had two extra days between games, and that lost last week on national television. Rick (Dire) Mirer buried Oakland’s point-spread and money-line backers last week by fumbling a snap with the point-spread and SU results on the line late in the game. With more snaps for Rich Gannon and the versatile Marques Tuiasosopo this week, Raiders backers looking to erase last week’s loss (a **PREFERRED Winning Points win on San Francisco) may not have to worry about Mirer screwing it up for them. Vikings backers must ALWAYS worry about a Minnesota quarterback screwing it up for THEM. Daunte Culpepper is the reigning king of current NFL quarterback klutzes, and his new back-up Gus Frerrote is high on the list of heirs. With the ball-hawking, speed-infused Oakland secondary salivating for a chance to make plays, these guys can’t be trusted as far as you could throw THEM, never mind how far they can throw the ball. Oakland’s already good OL can only get better as unfortunate head-case C Barrett Robbins begins to get more reps, beefs up the depth, and plays with passion to restore the team’s confidence in him. With the good OL play comes few negative yardage plays, and more completions by QBs enjoying good protection. OAKLAND, 24-9.

    **PREFERRED

    Houston over San Diego* by 10


    When they met in the regular season last year, you had a new Houston group in Week 2, traveling for its first road game, off an upset home win against Dallas in their first-ever NFL game. You couldn’t have much more of a letdown situation than that. Naturally, the Chargers, who would eventually beat the spread by an average of 16 points in September, won and covered that game handily. Now, the situation is much different. The Texans are home, in the second year of Dom Capers’ leadership. They’re off a lopsided road loss that wasn’t as bad as it looked. They have better defensive depth than San Diego, which let go of some serious experience for salary cap reasons. Marty Coachenheimer is 3-15 ATS with bettors’ money on him in the pre-season during his last five years an NFL head coach. You wouldn’t call him a “friend of the bettor” now, would you? And we’re happy to go against any team that uses Doug Flutie behind center. This isn’t 1986. He can have all that experience, for whatever it’s worth. But defenders are quicker now. Offensive linemen are taller. And he hasn’t gotten faster or taller. And you’d prefer that he plays with starters, not second-stringers. HOUSTON, 20-10.

    Kansas City over Seattle* by 9

    Seahawks’ head coach Mike Holmgren doesn’t have much depth to the roster, and has been very careful about exposing important players in the pre-season. Seattle was ruined by early-season injuries last year, so the team is sensitive about the possibilities for back-to-back bugs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have played one more game than the Seahawks and could be farther along in the usual NFL pre-season progression, when head coaches normally look at starters the longest of any other pre-season game. If that’s the case, then KC’s array of offensive weapons looms very dangerous against a Seahawks’ defense that is playing old John Randle at tackle, when he is supposed to be a passing-down rush end. Combine that with the injury to DT Chad Eaton, and a linebacking corps that hasn’t practiced much together as a unit in the pre-season and you have a home team that could be very soft in the middle now. KC has not been happy with offensive production so far, but as one player says, "We have two more preseason games to get it right, and we will get it right." With the Chiefs’ also stressing an improved defense for 2003, the new veterans that were brought in could be tough nuts to crack. KANSAS CITY, 22-13 .

    *CLOSE CALLS

    Pittsburgh* over Dallas by 5 (Thursday)


    Better defense (Dallas), plus points, is always worth considering. But that 34-6 rout by last Friday was an aberration, as the game got out of hand via an unlikely catch, punt return, and TD pass following a fumbled kickoff by Houston. The Steelers, in Bill Cowher’s 11th year, are the much more “together” side, and their offensive line will only get better as the pre-season progresses and guys who were injured begin to practice and play more. They are an 0-2 team playing home, a pet angle of the pre-season sharpies which is 19-12 ATS over the last 10 years. In Pittsburgh, Dallas’s defense meets offensive capabilities much greater than those of Houston, whose own OL is among the worst in the league. PITTSBURGH, 18-13.

    Philadelphia* over New England by 2 (Friday)

    The Patriots have a nice QB rotation behind Tom Brady, capable of doing different things. All of them came out of big-time college programs. A.J. Feeley of Philly had some success as a starter last season, but he was also playing with the starters. Now, Feeley and Koy Detmer -- an unimpressive physical specimen who won’t last much longer in the NFL -- must try to move the team with second- and third-stringers. Not easy. Especially with a depleted offensive backfield for the immediate future. Tim Hasselbeck, brother of Seattle starter Matt, is also in the QB picture for the Eagles. If he’s anything like his brother, his INT per pass ratio will be near 1.0 for a while. New England’s first-string defense is filled with veterans who know their roles and are playing well. PHILADELPHIA, 17-15.

    Arizona* over Chicago by 3 (Friday)

    Winning Points Online members are 2-0 with Arizona in the pre-season. But do we all trust Jeff Blake and Josh McCown favored, at QB vs. decent Bears defensive personnel? You’d have to be a masochist to put money on that. Not that the Bears have any big indicators pointing in their direction. Kordell Stewart? The man is a money-sucker. The Steelers doubled their offensive production and stopped losing ATS immediately after sitting his butt down last year. After last weekend, Stewart sufferers are now 0-2 ATS with him in the 2003 pre-season, and each of those games was on his home field. ARIZONA, 16-13.

    Buffalo* over St. Louis by 7

    Rams travel off a short week to face a supposedly improved Bills defense, though you couldn’t justify that assessment by Buffalo’s performance last week in a 37-24 loss at Tennessee. Buffalo coach Gregg Williams, once Tennessee's defensive coordinator, had some telling comments that could mean that there is value in Buffalo. He said he kept everything very basic because the teams meet again in December. Smart guy. But the Bills were flagged 16 times for 178 yards in penalties, including six for 93 in their bad first half. "We've got a lot of work to do when we get back to camp. Nobody should be resting easy with this ballgame." That’s exactly what you want to hear from a short-priced home favorite. BUFFALO, 21-14.

    Tennessee over Cincinnati* by 4

    Bengals got the victory last weekend when Carson Palmer was able to move the team against Detroit back-ups in the second half. This week, they’ll have to face a Tennessee team that is pressuring opposing QBs in the pre-season, as that unit is juiced up by the return of rush-end Jevon Kearse. That’s not a good situation for any Cincinnati QB to be in. After last week, head coach Marvin Lewis said that Jon Kitna is still #1, which is a good enough reason to look to the other side. The opponent that Cincy beat last Saturday had been softened by the blackout. The Lions scrambled their travel plans, chartering eight buses for a five-hour trip, instead of a 45-minute flight. TENNESSEE, 20-16 .

    Detroit* over Cleveland by 3

    Tim Couch Potato could be boiling over after Kelly Holcomb earned the inside track to the starter’s job for Cleveland last week by outplaying Brett Favre. THIS is the game after which head coach Butch Davis intends to elect his #1 guy for September. Couch is the likely starter. If the first unit moves with him, Cleveland backers will have an edge. Yet Steve Mariucci of Detroit is in a better situation. His QB situation is not a potential distraction. He has an improving, mobile #1 (Harrington), a content, mobile #2 (McMahon), and a team that can’t help but improve gradually as he coaches them to cut down on mistakes. DETROIT, 23-20 .

    New York Giants* over NY Jets by 1

    It’s easy to figure out that the Jets have a better offensive line, a better pass rush, and can get better production out of their running backs. It was in this annual August match-up last season that the Giants’ offensive catalyst Tiki Barber popped a hamstring on a long run, so he figures to pull back a little and the Giants are more inclined to give sluggish Ron Dayne a workload now anyway. The Jets have covered 11 in a row in this pre-season series. Many of you weren’t even betting football when that streak began. It will end some day. Just make sure that it doesn’t continue when you’re siding with the Giants, or you’ll feel like a total goofball, right? Giants are the 0-2 team playing home, a 19-12 ATS angle. NY GIANTS, 20-19 .

    Washington* over Baltimore by 3

    Ravens’ head coach Brian Billick knows Chris Redman is his starting QB. But he also knows that if anything happens to Redman, he has a rookie (Kyle Boller) and a fake QB (Anthony Wright) to play the position for the rest of the year. Redman, coming off surgery in the off-season, can’t be exposed to a rush too much right now. So we can’t figure the Ravens to be effective when they throw the ball. But when they run, the Redskins weak DL probably can’t stop it. Meanwhile, that Baltimore defense is still pretty awesome. Its speed is what caused Michael Vick’s injury last weekend. The Redskins can be effective throwing it in the pre-season, when Steve Spurrier wants to. Maybe now that he’s 0-2 he’ll want to. But it wouldn’t make much sense for him to force that issue here. WASHINGTON, 13-10.

    Tampa Bay* over Jacksonville by 8

    Men vs. boys. Men who knew what they would be doing this season LAST season, vs. a roster with lots of new players, new coaches, and inexperience among back-ups. Men who comprise the quickest defense in the NFL, vs. a starting QB, Mark Brunell, who operates best when allowed to be mobile, and who must be cautious about getting sacked or risk the season hitting toilet early. Behind Brunell on Jacksonville are second-year guys David Garrard and rookie Byron Leftwich, who faced relatively slow Conference USA and Mid-American Conference defensive personnel when they played in college. They throw into a much different world of speed when they drop back against this defense. TAMPA BAY, 17-9.

    Green Bay* over Carolina by 7

    Packers are slated to get a pair of starting offensive linemen back for this game, so their offense may be better-suited to moving the ball in the second half than that lousy Giants line was. Panthers’ defensive depth is a little better than those last two GB opponents, and if Green Bay’s Akili Smith is throwing into it, then mistakes are sure to be made. If Doug Pedersen is throwing into it, then the offense would figure to sputter. Green Bay has already played three games to the Panthers’ two and this is their home debut, while the Panthers travel off two wins. GREEN BAY, 22-15.

    San Francisco* over New Orleans by 6

    Niners will have had a couple of extra days to prepare, while the Saints travel for a second straight week after playing on Saturday night. Three QBs saw action in the 49ers last game, and none of them was #1 Jeff Garcia, whose back is bothersome. Combined, Tim Rattay, Brandon Doman and Ken Dorsey went 13-for-31, a very lousy completion percentage of 42%. If it’s windy again, that rate may not improve much. But at least they have that game under their belts, and are taking a drop in class as far as the quality of their defensive opponent. New Orleans was the worst NFC defensive team and allowed 27 points in Week 1 of the pre-season, then 17 last Saturday at the Jets. SAN FRANCISCO, 26-20

    Denver* over Indianapolis by 3 (Monday)

    The Colts were good enough to win outright in this stadium in a snowstorm last year. But in that meeting, semi-Human Anchor Steve Beuerlein was QB-ing Denver for the entire game, which was 60 minutes (and OT) of hell for chalk-players. SB might see action here, but so could Jarious Jackson and Danny Kanell, who would seem to be better alternatives at this point. Of course, they will not play with the starters. That privilege goes to Jake Plummer, who could eventually be Comeback Player of the Year. If Plummer’s ability can get Denver back to its old self – which was jumping on teams early – then the people betting against Denver will have to pray for back-door covers in order to cash. DENVER, 24-21 .

    BASEBALL ANALYSIS

    BEGINNING THURSDAY AUGUST 21

    Anaheim at Detroit (4) 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th
    In last weekend’s series on the west coast, the Angels swept the hapless Tigers (31-91, -$3490) and with Ramon Ortiz, lefty Jarrod Washburn (Detroit is 6-28, -$1455 vs. southpaws averaging 3 RPG) and Scott Shields (replaced Kevin Appier in the starting rotation) lined up, it could happen again. And, the Angels will be a lot shorter chalk on the road. BEST BET: Washburn/Ortiz/Shields.

    Kansas City at Minnesota (4) 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th
    Final series of the year between these AL Central denizens. In KC last weekend, the Twins got back in the AL Central race by taking two of three. The Royals still lead the AL Central and have defeated Minnesota nine out of fifteen times (+$485), but may be somewhat fatigued after playing the Yankees twice and the Twins in the three series prior to this one. The defending division champs still have some fight in them. BEST BET: Twins in all games.

    Texas at Chicago W. Sox (4) 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th
    The Rangers put a crimp in the White Sox playoff aspirations in Texas last weekend and all of a sudden the formerly red hot Pale Hose have lost 10 of 15. We won’t take the bait and jump on Chicago to return the favor as the prices will be too high, but were willing to make an exception when Mark Buehrle takes his turn. Texas is 6-13 (-$360) vs. southpaws on the road averaging more than a run less than their average vs. righties. BEST BET: Buehrle.

    BEGINNING FRIDAY AUGUST 22

    Cincinnati at Houston (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
    The Astros’ domination of the Reds ended last weekend, but Houston still leads the series, 11-3 (+$525) and is so much tougher at home where they’ve won 62% overall and vs. righthanders (+$505). The Astros are slumping (lost five of six), but going against a rookie (John Bale), a retread (Seth Etherton) and a starter with a 7.06 ERA and a .331 BAA on the road (Paul Wilson) should be enough to get a few “Ws”. BEST BET: Astros in all games.

    Pittsburgh at Milwaukee (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
    Pittsburgh has played pretty well since the All-Star break considering that half of its games were against teams at .500 or better. Last weekend, the Pirates took two of three and the series now stands at seven wins each with the Brewers up $230. Ben Sheets may be only 3-4 lifetime vs. Pittsburgh, but he’s got a 1.80 ERA against them this year and 2.93 over 55.1 innings lifetime. BEST BET: Sheets.

    Philadelphia at St. Louis (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
    Last weekend the Phillies swept the Cardinals to keep pace with the Marlins in the wildcard race. The final victory was highlighted by Amaury Telemaco retiring the last 14 batters he faced in his first appearance in a Major League uniform in two years. He’s pitching Friday and is not likely to beat the same team twice in five days. The Cardinals are averaging 7 RPG at home vs. lefties, so a play against the slumping Randy Wolf is definitely in order. BEST BET: Cardinals vs. Telemaco and Wolf.

    Atlanta at Colorado (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
    Everyone knows that Colorado is dangerous (41-19, +$1895) on their home turf. However, the Braves have won six of the last nine games played at Coors Field and have the best road record (36-24, +$1125) in the NL this season. Russ Ortiz (16-5, 3.46 ERA, .221 BAA) has been sensational all season and is 6-2 on the road with a 2.86 ERA and a .230 BAA. Make him the top play in the series. We’ll go with Shawn Chacon and Jason Jennings as Colorado is a combined 19-3 (+$970), but only if the match ups are in our favor. BEST BET: Ortiz/Chacon & Jennings vs. Ramirez, Hampton & Reynolds.

    Chicago Cubs at Arizona (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
    Arizona (3.67) and Chicago (3.80) have the second and fourth best team ERAs in the NL, so pay close attention to the pitching match ups. We’ll pass on Wood/Schilling (to close to call), take Carlos Zambrano over Migul Batista on the strength of Batista’s 0-2 (8.91 ERA) lifetime mark vs. the Cubbies and go against Shawn Estes and his 5.48 ERA. BEST BET: Zambrano/’Backs vs. Estes.

    Montreal at San Diego (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
    The Expos averaged 9.3 RPG in a three-game brooming of the Padres in early May. Montreal’s offense may not be up to producing numbers like that on the road (3.6 RPG vs. 5.3 RPG at home), but they possess a pair of pitchers that are more than capable of curtailing the Padres’ offense (only 3.6 RPG at home so far). BEST BET: Vazquez/Hernandez.

    NY Mets at Los Angeles (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
    The Dodgers won two of three at Shea Stadium earlier this year. The Mets scored just five runs in those three games and don’t figure to fare much better in California where the LA starters have a 2.96 ERA. However, the Mets look like a different team with Mike Piazza back in the lineup and have won eight of eleven (+$920). Steve Trachsel has been amazing on the road (8-1, 3.69 ERA). Given LA’s anemia (3.2 RPG, -$1765) against righthanders, he has to be the top play in the series. BEST BET: Trachsel/Dodgers vs. lefthanders.

    Florida at San Francisco (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
    The Marlins lost three games in the Sunshine State in early May, long before Florida became a playoff threat. The task won’t be any easier at Pac Bell where the Giants are 41-18 (+$1425) including 13-2 vs. lefties (+$1085). However, the Giants have been sleep walking through the last three weeks and the hot Marlins are a live dog in any game started by one of their righthanders. BEST BET: Giants vs. lefthanders/righthanders vs. the Giants

    Seattle at Boston (4) 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 25th
    At Safeco last weekend, Pedro Martinez increased his lifetime record vs. Seattle to 11-0 (nine earned runs in 84 innings), but the Mariners won the other two games. If Pedro goes again, it’s impossible not to like him, but please be advised that you’ll be paying through the nose. We’ll make an exception and recommend him as well as Derek Lowe who has a 3.67 ERA lifetime vs. the Mariners. Boston is 9-3 (+$455) in his home starts and Lowe is 16-6 in Fenway since the beginning of last season. BEST BET: Martinez/Lowe.

    Baltimore at NY Yankees (4) 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 25th
    The Orioles entertained the Yankees in Camden Yards last weekend and the Pinstripers took all four including a couple of bizarre victories. New York will be over 2-1 in every game, so backing them is out of the question. Unfortunately, only one current Baltimore starter (Jason Johnson) is in the black (+$260) on the road. Let’s try him and go against Jeff Weaver and his 5.78 ERA (5.55 in the Bronx). BEST BET: Johnson/ Orioles vs. Weaver.

    Oakland at Toronto (4) 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 25th
    In a three-game series in Oakland last weekend. the A’s won two of three from the struggling Blue Jays. However, we’ll take Mr. Halladay (+$920) in the return bout and the Athletics with any match up in the remaining two games as they continue their pursuit of Seattle while holding the Red Sox at bay in the wildcard race. BEST BET: Halladay/Athletics in all other games.

    Cleveland at Tampa Bay (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
    The Indians and Devil Rays are about 100 games behind their respective division leaders. How many people will attend this series? If you said less than 7,500 per event you’re probably in the ballpark. Take C.C. Sabathia (3.23 ERA) off last weekend’s complete game shutout vs. Tampa, as well as Jeremi Gonzalez, since the Rays are +$350 in his home outings. BEST BET: Sabathia/ Gonzalez.

    BEGINNING MONDAY AUGUST 25

    Philadelphia at Montreal (4) 25th, 26th, 27th, 28th
    Remember when these two teams were neck and neck in the standings? That was before Vladimir Guerrero went on the DL resulting in a massive power outage from which Montreal has never recovered. The Phillies lead this series 9-4 (+$450) and are pitching well enough (starters’ road ERA is 3.63, relievers’ ERA is 2.75) to capture at least a split. PREFERRED: Phillies in all games.

    Milwaukee at Cincinnati (4) 25th, 26th, 27th, 28th
    The Reds don’t play all that well at home, but they do enjoy a 7-4 (+$265) advantage in the series. And, should Paul Wilson (+$485 at home) or Jose Acevedo (+$200 at home) get a start you’ll have a fighting chance as long as they don’t hook Sheets, Franklin or Kinney as the Brewers are a combined 22-17 (+$2095) in their 39 road starts. PREFERRED: Wilson & Acevedo vs. Obermueller & Manning; Franklin/Sheets/Kinney vs. Graves/Haynes/Anderson.

    San Diego at Arizona (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
    The Padres have been a thorn in the Diamondbacks’ side winning 6 of 14 (+$225). Arizona will have to do a lot better in the remaining five games if they hope to overtake the Phillies/Marlins in the wildcard race. Given the Padres’ starters 5.65 ERA on the road this season, taking at least a pair here should not present much of a problem, but those projected sky-high prices dampen our enthusiasm. PREFERRED: None.

    BEGINNING TUESDAY AUGUST 26

    Florida at Pittsburgh (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
    These teams meet again next week in Pittsburgh. The Marlins are becoming one of the most interesting stories in the NL. They caught fire after a managerial change 10 weeks ago and are currently on a 19-7 run. Their young pitchers (Brad Penny, Josh Beckett, Dontrelle Willis, Mark Redman) have finally come of age and there’s nothing wrong with the first four slots in the batting order (Juan Pierre, Luis Castillo, Ivan Rodriguez and Mike Lowell). That combination bit too much for the game, but depleted Pirates to handle. PREFERRED: Marlins in all games.

    NY Mets at Atlanta (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
    As usual, the Braves have crucified (10-3, +$530) the Mets and there’s no reason to think that NY will put up much of a fight in Georgia where they’re lost 12 of the last 16. The only Mets’ starter worth looking at is Steve Trachsel. The Mets are 8-5 (+$910) in his road starts. Otherwise, it’s all Braves as long as we don’t have to invest more than the federal government’s current deficit. PREFERRED: Trachsel/ Braves -$180 or less vs. all others.

    Los Angeles at Houston (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
    Yes, the Dodgers have one hell of a staff, but the Astros’ offense, which has hit 62 more homers and driven in 148 more runs, should be able to score enough to take this series especially at Minute Maid where Houston is an impressive 36-23. By the way, the Astros’ 4.02 ERA for its starters in this ballpark compares very favorably with LA’s 4.07 ERA on the road for its starting corps, doesn’t it? PREFERRED: Astros in all games.

    Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
    It seems like these two have been going at it all season (Cards lead the series, 6-3 and are $345 in the black) and, in fact, a four-game set is scheduled at Wrigley Field starting September 1. Matt Morris is finally off the DL and is 2-0 in three starts vs. the Cubs this year allowing seven runs in 22 innings and has now won seven of his last eight decisions vs. Chicago since 2000. If he goes you have an attractive play. PREFERRED: Morris.

    San Francisco at Colorado (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
    This has been a hotly contested series with the Giants up 8-6 for a measly $25 profit. With the Rockies barely alive in the running for a wildcard while the Giants continue to stifle yawns in a NL West race that was over at the All-Star break, we have to lean to the team with the slightly greater incentive. Colorado’s sheer power at home (.302 BA, 86 homers, .516 slugging percentage, 6.7 RPG) overcomes the Giants’ pitching. PREFERRED: Rockies in all games.

    Chicago W. Sox at NY Yankees (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
    The Sox only hope for the playoffs is a strong finish, so with no margin for error we expect a spirited effort. And, Chicago has the type of offense to get to the Yankees’ weakness, that mediocre bullpen (4.31 ERA). New York’s continued lackluster play against righthanders (-$1315) in the Bronx has us hoping that the Sox have their two aces ready for action. PREFERRED: Loaiza/Colon.

    Toronto at Boston (2) 26th, 27th
    Most of the previous 17 games between these teams (Boston leads the series, 9-8) were played when the Blue Jays were entertaining themselves with the idea that they’d be playing postseason baseball. Now that Toronto has returned to reality, the Red Sox (39-19, +$770 at home with an amazing .323 BA) will tear apart a staff with a 4.83 ERA. PREFERRED: Red Sox in all games.

    Detroit at Cleveland (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
    There’s bad and then there’s B-A-D. The Indians are bad (20 or so games below .500 is bad, folks), but the Tigers are B-A-D (over 60 game below.500) and that’s why Cleveland has won 9 of 12 ($435). And, if lefties C.C. Sabathia, Billy Traber and Brian Anderson are available, the Tigers (3-17, -$995 vs. southpaws on the road) are likely to be grabbed by the tail. PREFERRED: Lefthanders vs. the Tigers.

    Texas at Kansas City (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
    KC is currently 14 games over .500 vs. AL’s bottom feeders. The Rangers have now tried 15, count’em, 15 different starters this year and have yet to find a live arm. And, now that closer Ugeth Urbina is plying his trade in Florida, a bullpen with a 6.48 ERA figures to get even worse. That’s not a formula for success vs. a team with a .280 BA at home. PREFERRED: Royals in all games.

    Baltimore at Oakland (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
    The Orioles had three tough losses in California in early July losing by 2, 2 and 1 run(s) as they were shutout twice by Tim Hudson and Barry Zito. Like last year, the Orioles crept over the .500 mark only to fall back and this season’s swoon (lost seven straight and 11 of 15) may have been precipitated by fire sale of Sidney Ponson to the Giants, a signal by management to the players to pack it in for the rest of 2003. PREFERRED: A’s -$180 or less.

    Minnesota at Anaheim (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
    The Angels maintained their dominance over the Twins (knocked them out of last season’s playoffs en route to a world championship) by sweeping (+$300) the only series played this year. However, Minnesota has an opportunity to get the last laugh now. A successful series in California keeps the Twins’ hopes alive for a playoff berth, something that has been out of Anaheim’s grasp for quite some time. PREFERRED: Twins in all games.

    Tampa Bay at Seattle (3) 26th, 27th, 28th
    The Devil Rays are having a solid second half (won 17 of 30 since the All-Star break), but performing well here might be asking a bit too much. After all, The Mariners have so much more to play for while Tampa Bay is more concerned about keeping Lou Pinella (been tossed four times already this season) quiet. The M’s won the first series in Florida (2-1-$20). Sweet Lou would love to return the favor in his old stomping grounds and if Victor Zambrano (Rays are +$745 in his away appearances) gets a nod, you just might see a smile on his face. PREFERRED: Zambrano.
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