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American League Central betting preview: The tightest division in baseball?
The AL Central could be the tightest division race in baseball, with the fave at +170 and the longshot at +900.
It may be a little strange to think about because of how bad some of these teams have been over the years, but from top to bottom, the American League Central could be the tightest division race in baseball. With the favorite at +170 and the long shot is just +900. Oh yeah, the defending World Series champs are here too.
Chicago White Sox (2015: 76-86, -1,266 units, 76-79-7 O/U)
Division odds: +560
Season win total: 80.5
Why bet the White Sox: Many thought last year was when Chicago would make a big move up and this year, that is the thought once again. The White Sox improved their offense with the additions of Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie and they possess one of the top starters in baseball in Chris Sale while having arguably the most underrated in Jose Quintana. Defensively, they are improved too which can help an average bullpen.
Why not bet the White Sox: Chicago hit the free agent market last year and struck out big time and it is possible Frazier has hit his max potential while Lawrie is nothing special. The bottom of the batting lineup and the bottom of the rotation are both weak. Only the Mariners, Marlins, and Padres have longer postseason droughts than Chicago so do these players know how to win?
Season win total pick: Under 80.5 Wins
Cleveland Indians (2015: 81-80, -1,320 units, 79-80-2 O/U)
Division odds: +175
Season win total: 85.5
Why bet the Indians: The Indians have now had three straight winning seasons so they know how to win, but need to take the next step. The starting rotation is one of the best in the league led by 2014 Cy Young Winner Corey Kluber and followed by Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, each coming off 14-win seasons. The bullpen had the second lowest ERA in the league last season.
Why not bet the Indians: Michael Brantley, the most consistent hitter over the last three years, had surgery on his right shoulder and could miss the first month of the regular season. This is not good news for a horrible offense that did nothing to improve in the offseason. While Kluber won the CY Young two years ago, he led the league in losses last year so we are not sure what to expect.
Season win total pick: Under 85.5 Wins
Detroit Tigers (2015: 74-87, -1,030 units, 85-68-8 O/U)
Division odds: +500
Season win total: 81.5
Why bet the Tigers: Detroit went from first to worst so there is definitely value with the Tigers this season as injuries played a big role in their decline. They signed Jordan Zimmerman away from Washington and he has been very consistent when healthy. Justin Verlander had a great second half, posting a 2.80 ERA after missing time and pitching poorly early. The offense should be potent again.
Why not bet the Tigers: The Tigers big three, Verlander, Cabrera and Martinez, are 33, 33 and 37 so the fact they were all injured last season is not that surprising. The trades of David Price and Yoenis Cespedes brought in some excellent young talent but is still pretty unproven. Detroit is on the decline while the once youthful teams around them are catching up quickly with Kansas City already moving past.
Season win total pick: Over 81.5 Wins
Kansas City Royals (2015: 95-67, +51,944 units, 73-75-14 O/U)
Division odds: +170
Season win total: 84.5
Why bet the Royals: After winning 95 games during the regular season and capturing the World Series, there seems to be a ton of value with the Royals. The saying goes ‘defense wins championships’ and Kansas City proved that correct with the best defense in the league. This is a very athletic team that can win many different ways even though the long ball is not one of those.
Why not bet the Royals: The big factor now is after two successful years, other teams have the scouting ability to beat the Royals. As mentioned, the offense can rarely win with just one swing of the bat. While it was a given that Johnny Cueto was not going to sign here, his loss will be felt and his replacement is Ian Kennedy. The teams in the Central are not getting any worse.
Season win total pick: Over 84.5 Wins
Minnesota Twins (2015: 83-79, +2,029 units, 72-78-12 O/U)
Division odds: +900
Season win total: 79.5
Why bet the Twins: Manager Paul Molitor thrived in his first season in Minnesota as he led the team to a 13-game improvement and a second place finish. Winning is contagious and after four straight losing seasons, Molitor has brought in a winning culture. The starting rotation improved immensely last year and should be better again while the bullpen will be a lot healthier this year.
Why not bet the Twins: Were the Twins that much better or were the other teams besides Kansas City underachievers? Probably a little bit of both. The offense remains a work in progress as besides Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer, many people would be hard-pressed to name another player in the batting order. An average Ervin Santana is the No. 1 starter with a lot of wild cards behind him.
Season win total pick: Over 79.5 Wins
The AL Central could be the tightest division race in baseball, with the fave at +170 and the longshot at +900.
It may be a little strange to think about because of how bad some of these teams have been over the years, but from top to bottom, the American League Central could be the tightest division race in baseball. With the favorite at +170 and the long shot is just +900. Oh yeah, the defending World Series champs are here too.
Chicago White Sox (2015: 76-86, -1,266 units, 76-79-7 O/U)
Division odds: +560
Season win total: 80.5
Why bet the White Sox: Many thought last year was when Chicago would make a big move up and this year, that is the thought once again. The White Sox improved their offense with the additions of Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie and they possess one of the top starters in baseball in Chris Sale while having arguably the most underrated in Jose Quintana. Defensively, they are improved too which can help an average bullpen.
Why not bet the White Sox: Chicago hit the free agent market last year and struck out big time and it is possible Frazier has hit his max potential while Lawrie is nothing special. The bottom of the batting lineup and the bottom of the rotation are both weak. Only the Mariners, Marlins, and Padres have longer postseason droughts than Chicago so do these players know how to win?
Season win total pick: Under 80.5 Wins
Cleveland Indians (2015: 81-80, -1,320 units, 79-80-2 O/U)
Division odds: +175
Season win total: 85.5
Why bet the Indians: The Indians have now had three straight winning seasons so they know how to win, but need to take the next step. The starting rotation is one of the best in the league led by 2014 Cy Young Winner Corey Kluber and followed by Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, each coming off 14-win seasons. The bullpen had the second lowest ERA in the league last season.
Why not bet the Indians: Michael Brantley, the most consistent hitter over the last three years, had surgery on his right shoulder and could miss the first month of the regular season. This is not good news for a horrible offense that did nothing to improve in the offseason. While Kluber won the CY Young two years ago, he led the league in losses last year so we are not sure what to expect.
Season win total pick: Under 85.5 Wins
Detroit Tigers (2015: 74-87, -1,030 units, 85-68-8 O/U)
Division odds: +500
Season win total: 81.5
Why bet the Tigers: Detroit went from first to worst so there is definitely value with the Tigers this season as injuries played a big role in their decline. They signed Jordan Zimmerman away from Washington and he has been very consistent when healthy. Justin Verlander had a great second half, posting a 2.80 ERA after missing time and pitching poorly early. The offense should be potent again.
Why not bet the Tigers: The Tigers big three, Verlander, Cabrera and Martinez, are 33, 33 and 37 so the fact they were all injured last season is not that surprising. The trades of David Price and Yoenis Cespedes brought in some excellent young talent but is still pretty unproven. Detroit is on the decline while the once youthful teams around them are catching up quickly with Kansas City already moving past.
Season win total pick: Over 81.5 Wins
Kansas City Royals (2015: 95-67, +51,944 units, 73-75-14 O/U)
Division odds: +170
Season win total: 84.5
Why bet the Royals: After winning 95 games during the regular season and capturing the World Series, there seems to be a ton of value with the Royals. The saying goes ‘defense wins championships’ and Kansas City proved that correct with the best defense in the league. This is a very athletic team that can win many different ways even though the long ball is not one of those.
Why not bet the Royals: The big factor now is after two successful years, other teams have the scouting ability to beat the Royals. As mentioned, the offense can rarely win with just one swing of the bat. While it was a given that Johnny Cueto was not going to sign here, his loss will be felt and his replacement is Ian Kennedy. The teams in the Central are not getting any worse.
Season win total pick: Over 84.5 Wins
Minnesota Twins (2015: 83-79, +2,029 units, 72-78-12 O/U)
Division odds: +900
Season win total: 79.5
Why bet the Twins: Manager Paul Molitor thrived in his first season in Minnesota as he led the team to a 13-game improvement and a second place finish. Winning is contagious and after four straight losing seasons, Molitor has brought in a winning culture. The starting rotation improved immensely last year and should be better again while the bullpen will be a lot healthier this year.
Why not bet the Twins: Were the Twins that much better or were the other teams besides Kansas City underachievers? Probably a little bit of both. The offense remains a work in progress as besides Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer, many people would be hard-pressed to name another player in the batting order. An average Ervin Santana is the No. 1 starter with a lot of wild cards behind him.
Season win total pick: Over 79.5 Wins