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NL East Betting Preview: Can Mets dominant rotation deliver another division title?
The trio of Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Noah Syndergaard may be the best 1-2-3 punch in baseball.
2015 was supposed to be the Nationals' year. But it was the Mets who took over the NL East and won not only the division, but the NL Pennant, thanks to dominant pitching and some clutch hitting. But postseason hero Daniel Murphy has traded in his Mets uniform for that of the rival Nats. Has the division swung back in Washington's favor or is the Mets' rotation just too strong?
Atlanta Braves (2015: 67-95, -1,643 units, 81-72-9 O/U)
Division odds: +8,000
Season win total: 67.5
Why bet the Braves: They play in a weak division that saw two other teams (Marlins and Phillies) go just 71-91 and 63-99 last season. Atlanta improved the top of their batting order with the addition of outfielder Ender Inciarte and shortstop Erick Aybar. Right-hander Julio Teheran, has the potential to be an ace for this pitching rotation.
Why not bet the Braves: They went just 67-95 last season despite a solid 28-18 record in 1-run games. Had they not been fortunate to win 61 percent of those close games, their record would have been even worse. In fact, their X-WL (expected won-loss record using runs scored differential) was 61-101 last year.
Season win total pick: Under 67.5 wins
Miami Marlins (2015: 71-91, -1,413 units, 77-77-8 O/U)
Division odds: +1,200
Season win total: 79.5
Why bet the Marlins: There is talent at the top of the lineup card, with second baseman Dee Gordon, who batted .333 last season with 58 stolen bases, and right fielder Giancarlo Stanton who clobbered 27 home runs in just 74 games played. That would translate to 59 home runs over a full 162 game season. The pitching rotation added lefty Wei-Yin Chen, which gives Miami a solid second starter behind ace Jose Fernandez.
Why not bet the Marlins: The team did little to improve their overall roster from last year's 71-91 squad. The bottom of the batting order is very weak and other than Stanton and Justin Bour at the top, no other player had more than 10 home runs last season. Durability is an issue as the team's best hitter (Stanton) missed 88 games last year, while their best pitcher (Fernandez) only started 11 games.
Season win total pick: Over 79.5 wins
New York Mets (2015: 90-72, 589 units, 84-72-6 O/U)
Division odds: -130
Season win total: 89.5
Why bet the Mets: The defending National League champions have the best 1-2-3 punch of any starting rotation in the league with Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Noah Syndergaard. They also have a reliable closer in Jeurys Familia, who pitched to a 1.85 ERA last season while converting 43 of 48 save opportunities.
Why not bet the Mets: They lost second baseman Daniel Murphy in the offseason to division rival Washington. Murphy was the team's best offensive weapon in the postseason and the most consistent player in the regular season (130 games played). Durability for the rest of the lineup is a major concern as outfielder Yoenis Cespedes and third baseman David Wright missed 229 regular season games combined last year.
Season win total pick: Over 89.5 wins
Philadelphia Phillies (2015: 63-99, -842 units, 86-64-12 O/U)
Division odds: +8,000
Season win total: 65.5
Why bet the Phillies: They have some young talent which could surprise. Third baseman Maikel Franco hit 14 dingers with 50 RBI in just 80 games last season. His numbers should be even better this year in a full season at the big league level. The team also has power at first base with Ryan Howard and Darin Ruf combining for 35 home runs and 116 RBI last year.
Why not bet the Phillies: The pitching rotation is the worst in the league. They had a 4.69 ERA last season which was only ahead of the Rockies who play in thin air and altitude, while their 5.09 ERA on the road was the worst of any team. The Phillies' top two starting pitchers this year will be Jeremy Hellickson and Charlie Morton. Hellickson's ERA has been 4.52 or worse in each of the past three seasons, while Morton's career ERA is just 4.54. The bullpen provides even less support.
Season win total pick: Under 65.5 wins
Washington Nationals (2015: 83-79, -1,887 units, 83-71-8 O/U)
Division odds: +120
Season win total: 88.5
Why bet the Nationals: The team now has extra motivation and value after underachieving last season and missing the postseason despite being the preseason World Series favorite. Washington is still loaded with talent, including the best overall player in the league in outfielder Bryce Harper. Pair him with three strong starting pitchers in Max Scherzer, Gio Gonzalez, and Stephen Strasburg and the Nats are primed to bounce back. They also acquired former Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy in the offseason.
Why not bet the Nationals: The Nationals only went 83-79 last season despite playing in the weak NL East division, which had three other teams go 71-91, 67-95, and 63-99. Washington was only 39-45 in all non-division games. They also lost their second best starting pitcher, Jordan Zimmermann, in the offseason to the Tigers.
Season win total pick: Over 88.5 wins
The trio of Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Noah Syndergaard may be the best 1-2-3 punch in baseball.
2015 was supposed to be the Nationals' year. But it was the Mets who took over the NL East and won not only the division, but the NL Pennant, thanks to dominant pitching and some clutch hitting. But postseason hero Daniel Murphy has traded in his Mets uniform for that of the rival Nats. Has the division swung back in Washington's favor or is the Mets' rotation just too strong?
Atlanta Braves (2015: 67-95, -1,643 units, 81-72-9 O/U)
Division odds: +8,000
Season win total: 67.5
Why bet the Braves: They play in a weak division that saw two other teams (Marlins and Phillies) go just 71-91 and 63-99 last season. Atlanta improved the top of their batting order with the addition of outfielder Ender Inciarte and shortstop Erick Aybar. Right-hander Julio Teheran, has the potential to be an ace for this pitching rotation.
Why not bet the Braves: They went just 67-95 last season despite a solid 28-18 record in 1-run games. Had they not been fortunate to win 61 percent of those close games, their record would have been even worse. In fact, their X-WL (expected won-loss record using runs scored differential) was 61-101 last year.
Season win total pick: Under 67.5 wins
Miami Marlins (2015: 71-91, -1,413 units, 77-77-8 O/U)
Division odds: +1,200
Season win total: 79.5
Why bet the Marlins: There is talent at the top of the lineup card, with second baseman Dee Gordon, who batted .333 last season with 58 stolen bases, and right fielder Giancarlo Stanton who clobbered 27 home runs in just 74 games played. That would translate to 59 home runs over a full 162 game season. The pitching rotation added lefty Wei-Yin Chen, which gives Miami a solid second starter behind ace Jose Fernandez.
Why not bet the Marlins: The team did little to improve their overall roster from last year's 71-91 squad. The bottom of the batting order is very weak and other than Stanton and Justin Bour at the top, no other player had more than 10 home runs last season. Durability is an issue as the team's best hitter (Stanton) missed 88 games last year, while their best pitcher (Fernandez) only started 11 games.
Season win total pick: Over 79.5 wins
New York Mets (2015: 90-72, 589 units, 84-72-6 O/U)
Division odds: -130
Season win total: 89.5
Why bet the Mets: The defending National League champions have the best 1-2-3 punch of any starting rotation in the league with Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Noah Syndergaard. They also have a reliable closer in Jeurys Familia, who pitched to a 1.85 ERA last season while converting 43 of 48 save opportunities.
Why not bet the Mets: They lost second baseman Daniel Murphy in the offseason to division rival Washington. Murphy was the team's best offensive weapon in the postseason and the most consistent player in the regular season (130 games played). Durability for the rest of the lineup is a major concern as outfielder Yoenis Cespedes and third baseman David Wright missed 229 regular season games combined last year.
Season win total pick: Over 89.5 wins
Philadelphia Phillies (2015: 63-99, -842 units, 86-64-12 O/U)
Division odds: +8,000
Season win total: 65.5
Why bet the Phillies: They have some young talent which could surprise. Third baseman Maikel Franco hit 14 dingers with 50 RBI in just 80 games last season. His numbers should be even better this year in a full season at the big league level. The team also has power at first base with Ryan Howard and Darin Ruf combining for 35 home runs and 116 RBI last year.
Why not bet the Phillies: The pitching rotation is the worst in the league. They had a 4.69 ERA last season which was only ahead of the Rockies who play in thin air and altitude, while their 5.09 ERA on the road was the worst of any team. The Phillies' top two starting pitchers this year will be Jeremy Hellickson and Charlie Morton. Hellickson's ERA has been 4.52 or worse in each of the past three seasons, while Morton's career ERA is just 4.54. The bullpen provides even less support.
Season win total pick: Under 65.5 wins
Washington Nationals (2015: 83-79, -1,887 units, 83-71-8 O/U)
Division odds: +120
Season win total: 88.5
Why bet the Nationals: The team now has extra motivation and value after underachieving last season and missing the postseason despite being the preseason World Series favorite. Washington is still loaded with talent, including the best overall player in the league in outfielder Bryce Harper. Pair him with three strong starting pitchers in Max Scherzer, Gio Gonzalez, and Stephen Strasburg and the Nats are primed to bounce back. They also acquired former Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy in the offseason.
Why not bet the Nationals: The Nationals only went 83-79 last season despite playing in the weak NL East division, which had three other teams go 71-91, 67-95, and 63-99. Washington was only 39-45 in all non-division games. They also lost their second best starting pitcher, Jordan Zimmermann, in the offseason to the Tigers.
Season win total pick: Over 88.5 wins