Tweet
SANTA ANITA -- Race #9 -- FEARLESS FLYER (#8)
__________________________________________________ __________________
Today's entire card is disappointing but there may be a horse worth following in the Grade 2 Oak Leaf stakes, at 1-1/16 on the dirt for 2 year old fillies. Par for the race is 104. This race usually serves as the final Breeders' Cup prep for the 2 year old fillies on the West Coast. I'm not sure this race has any significant Breeders' Cup implications this year as it is the weakest field I've seen in a long time. One of these fillies will really have to step it up in a big way if they would want to be a factor in a race like the BC Juvenile Fillies later this month.
With all that in mind, FEARLESS FLYER (9-2) looks like an interesting horse in this race. She had a win at a mile on the grass in Ireland before shipping to Woodbine for her first North American start. Way at the back of the pack early in that race, she rallied impressively to win that Canadian Grade 3 race, covering the mile on grass in 1:34 and change and going her final 1/4 in :23 and change. She's never been raced on dirt, but this is a good spot to test it and she has 2 wins at a mile when most of this field has never even raced at that distance. Trainer Ben Cecil knows how to condition his newly imported horses and David Flores takes the mount. We do not produce speed figures for Woodbine, but I would have to guess that her figure from winning that race was at least a 100 which would match any of the best figures from other fillies in this race.
SPLENDID BLENDED (2-1) is the morning line favorite and should be respected off her 86-89-100+ figure from her one and only start. She beat maidens in that race and did it at the distance of a mile in her very first start, which is not an easy thing to do for a 2 year old filly. Neil Drysdale trains her and she had the look of a horse capable of even more improvement. She led wire to wire in that race and got the benefit of a crawling early pace before she blitzed away from them all late, clipping the last 1/4 mile in :24 and change. The 2nd place filly came back and beat maidens as our spot play on Thursday. SPLENDID BLENDED adds Lasix today and will get a tougher test while possibly having to lay behind horses, but she obviously has a lot of talent.
SWEET CATOMINE (5-2) has an even running style from her 2 sprints and ranks well below the top 2 mentioned. She earned a 98-92 going 5-1/2 furlongs in her first start against maidens and then came back with a much improved 95-96+ going 7 furlongs against stakes fillies in the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante. She won that race but it should be noted that the winning figure was almost 8 lengths slower than the typical par for that race and that the field was weaker than normal. SWEET CATOMINE drew the 9-hole for this race and is at a major disadvantage because we're asking her to improve off her two sprints when she's never been tried around two turns and will have to do it from the far outside post position.
FEARLESS FLYER is the spot play and I'd use her with a win bet and a nice quinella to SPLENDID BLENDED. To round out the rest of this field it looks like one of the fillies who showed early speed and faded in the Debutante such as HELLO LUCKY or NO BULL BABY. Good luck.
__________________________________________________ __________________
Today's entire card is disappointing but there may be a horse worth following in the Grade 2 Oak Leaf stakes, at 1-1/16 on the dirt for 2 year old fillies. Par for the race is 104. This race usually serves as the final Breeders' Cup prep for the 2 year old fillies on the West Coast. I'm not sure this race has any significant Breeders' Cup implications this year as it is the weakest field I've seen in a long time. One of these fillies will really have to step it up in a big way if they would want to be a factor in a race like the BC Juvenile Fillies later this month.
With all that in mind, FEARLESS FLYER (9-2) looks like an interesting horse in this race. She had a win at a mile on the grass in Ireland before shipping to Woodbine for her first North American start. Way at the back of the pack early in that race, she rallied impressively to win that Canadian Grade 3 race, covering the mile on grass in 1:34 and change and going her final 1/4 in :23 and change. She's never been raced on dirt, but this is a good spot to test it and she has 2 wins at a mile when most of this field has never even raced at that distance. Trainer Ben Cecil knows how to condition his newly imported horses and David Flores takes the mount. We do not produce speed figures for Woodbine, but I would have to guess that her figure from winning that race was at least a 100 which would match any of the best figures from other fillies in this race.
SPLENDID BLENDED (2-1) is the morning line favorite and should be respected off her 86-89-100+ figure from her one and only start. She beat maidens in that race and did it at the distance of a mile in her very first start, which is not an easy thing to do for a 2 year old filly. Neil Drysdale trains her and she had the look of a horse capable of even more improvement. She led wire to wire in that race and got the benefit of a crawling early pace before she blitzed away from them all late, clipping the last 1/4 mile in :24 and change. The 2nd place filly came back and beat maidens as our spot play on Thursday. SPLENDID BLENDED adds Lasix today and will get a tougher test while possibly having to lay behind horses, but she obviously has a lot of talent.
SWEET CATOMINE (5-2) has an even running style from her 2 sprints and ranks well below the top 2 mentioned. She earned a 98-92 going 5-1/2 furlongs in her first start against maidens and then came back with a much improved 95-96+ going 7 furlongs against stakes fillies in the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante. She won that race but it should be noted that the winning figure was almost 8 lengths slower than the typical par for that race and that the field was weaker than normal. SWEET CATOMINE drew the 9-hole for this race and is at a major disadvantage because we're asking her to improve off her two sprints when she's never been tried around two turns and will have to do it from the far outside post position.
FEARLESS FLYER is the spot play and I'd use her with a win bet and a nice quinella to SPLENDID BLENDED. To round out the rest of this field it looks like one of the fillies who showed early speed and faded in the Debutante such as HELLO LUCKY or NO BULL BABY. Good luck.