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DEL MAR -- Race #2 -- HE'S THE RAGE (#4)
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The 2nd race is a first level allowance sprint at 6 furlongs for Cal-breds. Par is a 104. The 9-5 favorite is EL DON and he was an impressive maiden winner with a 101-104 figure back in December. Those figures were actually earned while he was still a 2 year old. The problem is that he took a 7 month layoff following the win and now finds a spot with a tough pace scenario to make his comeback. In the maiden win EL DON rolled wire to wire but in the first lifetime start he proved that he could sit behind and pass horses late. With the 7 month layoff and sharp workouts I would expect that he'd feel pretty fresh and ready today so he'll go back to showing the speed again.
If he does show fresh speed today he will get a brutal awakening from a sharp claimer like EXCESSIVE HAYATE who is very fast early and can also stalk and pass a few horses if needed. If EL DON jumps to the early lead he may be pushed to a faster early pace than he is ready for which will hurt his kick. If he falls in behind the pace of CAHILL MANGO and EXCESSIVE HAYATE then he will probably be forced to swing out and try to go by those late. If he doesn't pass them with enough force then it may be HE'S THE RAGE swamping all of them. All in all it's a dicey situation as the 9-5 favorite.
With all the confusion going on over the early part of the race I was really interested to see what HE'S THE RAGE will be able to do from off the pace. He'll be making his first start in 3 months and has quietly switched to the barn of Kristin Mulhall since the last start. She has amazing results with horses making their first start for her and she also has great success with a limited amount of horses turning back in distance from routes to sprints. If this race were at a mile then HE'S THE RAGE would be even money to win it since he's an accomplished router who won the Cal Cup Juvenile as a maiden last season and has earned route figures of 101+ and 103+ early this season. The 103+ route figure at 1-1/8 miles is as good a figure as any of these sprinters have earned in a sprint, so the only question becomes whether he is ready to beat these at the 6 furlong distance today. That's why we're getting the 5-1 morning line. I'm inclined to take that 5-1 and give him a great chance to run this group down late. He runs very well fresh.
HE'S THE RAGE becomes the spot play win bet and key to exotics today. In looking for the best horses to use with him in the exotics I was giving EXCESSIVE HAYATE the biggest push because he just earned a 103-102 in a strong recent $32,000 claiming race and looks likely to run another good effort today. After that I guess it would be SUMMER SPORT who ran a sneaky good 101-104 figure last time out which was his lifetime best. CAHILL MANGO earned a good figure last time out and hit a new lifetime top in that race. He was used hard in that last one on a track that favored his running style and I'm not sure he's ready to run back to that effort here at Del Mar. Good luck.
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The 2nd race is a first level allowance sprint at 6 furlongs for Cal-breds. Par is a 104. The 9-5 favorite is EL DON and he was an impressive maiden winner with a 101-104 figure back in December. Those figures were actually earned while he was still a 2 year old. The problem is that he took a 7 month layoff following the win and now finds a spot with a tough pace scenario to make his comeback. In the maiden win EL DON rolled wire to wire but in the first lifetime start he proved that he could sit behind and pass horses late. With the 7 month layoff and sharp workouts I would expect that he'd feel pretty fresh and ready today so he'll go back to showing the speed again.
If he does show fresh speed today he will get a brutal awakening from a sharp claimer like EXCESSIVE HAYATE who is very fast early and can also stalk and pass a few horses if needed. If EL DON jumps to the early lead he may be pushed to a faster early pace than he is ready for which will hurt his kick. If he falls in behind the pace of CAHILL MANGO and EXCESSIVE HAYATE then he will probably be forced to swing out and try to go by those late. If he doesn't pass them with enough force then it may be HE'S THE RAGE swamping all of them. All in all it's a dicey situation as the 9-5 favorite.
With all the confusion going on over the early part of the race I was really interested to see what HE'S THE RAGE will be able to do from off the pace. He'll be making his first start in 3 months and has quietly switched to the barn of Kristin Mulhall since the last start. She has amazing results with horses making their first start for her and she also has great success with a limited amount of horses turning back in distance from routes to sprints. If this race were at a mile then HE'S THE RAGE would be even money to win it since he's an accomplished router who won the Cal Cup Juvenile as a maiden last season and has earned route figures of 101+ and 103+ early this season. The 103+ route figure at 1-1/8 miles is as good a figure as any of these sprinters have earned in a sprint, so the only question becomes whether he is ready to beat these at the 6 furlong distance today. That's why we're getting the 5-1 morning line. I'm inclined to take that 5-1 and give him a great chance to run this group down late. He runs very well fresh.
HE'S THE RAGE becomes the spot play win bet and key to exotics today. In looking for the best horses to use with him in the exotics I was giving EXCESSIVE HAYATE the biggest push because he just earned a 103-102 in a strong recent $32,000 claiming race and looks likely to run another good effort today. After that I guess it would be SUMMER SPORT who ran a sneaky good 101-104 figure last time out which was his lifetime best. CAHILL MANGO earned a good figure last time out and hit a new lifetime top in that race. He was used hard in that last one on a track that favored his running style and I'm not sure he's ready to run back to that effort here at Del Mar. Good luck.