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hollywood 5-14
HOLLYWOOD PARK -- Race #1 -- KISSIN TY (#5)
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** Don't forget the evening post at Hollywood tonight, 1st race post time is 7:05 pm PST. **
The 1st race is a $40,000 claiming route for 3 year olds at 1-1/16 miles on dirt. Par is a 101. The spot play was easy to find today as KISSIN TY enters this race as the 3-1 third choice yet has the two best recent figures of anyone in the field. The Doug O'Neill trainee had been racing over turf for many starts before switching back to a similar dirt race last time for a $62,500 claiming tag. He pressed a solid pace for that level and just missed the winner by a length while earning a 102-104-101+. The two grass figures he earned leading up to that dirt effort were a 105-103-101+ and a 103-103-99. KISSIN TY is the only horse in this field who can say that he's earned a complete set of pace and final figures all above 100 for any race (and he's done it twice). The figures for the race he's coming out of are much stronger than either of the two morning line favorites so KISSIN TY looks capable of stalking the early pace and then taking over late.
OCH TAMALE is the 2-1 morning line favorite for Jeff Mullins but just broke his maiden with a 94-99-98 set of figures. The rest of the maiden field was very weak and OCH TAMALE was able to win by 6-1/2 lengths despite only running a par figure for the maiden level. It's possible that he was capable of going a bit faster that day but his previous effort was only an 87-86-97+ so now that I've seen two route efforts where he never broke the 100 barrier at any point of call I'd have to think he's not a good favorite in here and will be overbet off the inflated maiden win. He has a consistent closing style that could clink in for a piece of it.
GASSAN ROCK is the other favorite on the morning line and does come from the red-hot Mike Mitchell/Patrick Valenzuela combo. Mitchell has won with 46% of his first 26 starters at the meet and is simply on fire. GASSAN ROCK will need some extra trainer help to win this because he's never been particularly fast. As a 2 year old his best route effort was a 97-98-92 and then he won a gutsy $32,000 claiming mile at Santa Anita coming off a 5 month layoff. He did lead and battle at every point of call that day but the pace was pathetically slow and his winning figures were only 86-87-99+. He was life and death every step of the way to win that day even with the slow :48 opening 1/2 mile and I'd certainly forgive him for regressing tonight when forced to attend a much quicker early pace. GOTTA GO GO is a sprinter stretching out in distance for the 1st time who just blitzed a 105 opening sprint pace figure and has the raw speed to break 22 seconds for the opening quarter in sprints. He will probably zip out to the lead in here and if GASSAN ROCK goes with him it is very likely that both of them will be toast late for KISSIN TY and OCH TAMALE.
KISSIN TY is the spot play win bet and key to exotics. OCH TAMALE is improving and could close in as the best backup horse. PLEASURE HONOR had some trouble in the same race with KISSIN TY last time and could be much improved tonight. Good luck.
__________________________________________________ __________________
** Don't forget the evening post at Hollywood tonight, 1st race post time is 7:05 pm PST. **
The 1st race is a $40,000 claiming route for 3 year olds at 1-1/16 miles on dirt. Par is a 101. The spot play was easy to find today as KISSIN TY enters this race as the 3-1 third choice yet has the two best recent figures of anyone in the field. The Doug O'Neill trainee had been racing over turf for many starts before switching back to a similar dirt race last time for a $62,500 claiming tag. He pressed a solid pace for that level and just missed the winner by a length while earning a 102-104-101+. The two grass figures he earned leading up to that dirt effort were a 105-103-101+ and a 103-103-99. KISSIN TY is the only horse in this field who can say that he's earned a complete set of pace and final figures all above 100 for any race (and he's done it twice). The figures for the race he's coming out of are much stronger than either of the two morning line favorites so KISSIN TY looks capable of stalking the early pace and then taking over late.
OCH TAMALE is the 2-1 morning line favorite for Jeff Mullins but just broke his maiden with a 94-99-98 set of figures. The rest of the maiden field was very weak and OCH TAMALE was able to win by 6-1/2 lengths despite only running a par figure for the maiden level. It's possible that he was capable of going a bit faster that day but his previous effort was only an 87-86-97+ so now that I've seen two route efforts where he never broke the 100 barrier at any point of call I'd have to think he's not a good favorite in here and will be overbet off the inflated maiden win. He has a consistent closing style that could clink in for a piece of it.
GASSAN ROCK is the other favorite on the morning line and does come from the red-hot Mike Mitchell/Patrick Valenzuela combo. Mitchell has won with 46% of his first 26 starters at the meet and is simply on fire. GASSAN ROCK will need some extra trainer help to win this because he's never been particularly fast. As a 2 year old his best route effort was a 97-98-92 and then he won a gutsy $32,000 claiming mile at Santa Anita coming off a 5 month layoff. He did lead and battle at every point of call that day but the pace was pathetically slow and his winning figures were only 86-87-99+. He was life and death every step of the way to win that day even with the slow :48 opening 1/2 mile and I'd certainly forgive him for regressing tonight when forced to attend a much quicker early pace. GOTTA GO GO is a sprinter stretching out in distance for the 1st time who just blitzed a 105 opening sprint pace figure and has the raw speed to break 22 seconds for the opening quarter in sprints. He will probably zip out to the lead in here and if GASSAN ROCK goes with him it is very likely that both of them will be toast late for KISSIN TY and OCH TAMALE.
KISSIN TY is the spot play win bet and key to exotics. OCH TAMALE is improving and could close in as the best backup horse. PLEASURE HONOR had some trouble in the same race with KISSIN TY last time and could be much improved tonight. Good luck.