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HOLLYWOOD PARK -- Race #6 -- ORO DESERT (#1)
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The 6th race is a competitive N1X allowance race for California-breds at a mile on the turf. Par is a 104. ORO DESERT beat this level two starts ago on the Santa Anita turf and any of his last 3 turf efforts would hit very hard in here. His last 3 turf starts include a win at Bay Meadows with a 112-112-102, a close 3rd here at Hollywood with a 106-112-104+ and then the win from two starts ago at Santa Anita with a 109-107-105. The thing that will keep him at decent odds today is the ugly stretch run he threw in that last start, a 7 furlong Cal-bred allowance stake.
Obviously he needs to be in one piece when he competes today so there needs to be form reversal from the last start, but I thought that there were a couple of reasons to think that a major bounceback might be on tap. First, I noticed that the last time he threw in the huge turf effort at Hollywood on 12/10/03 which was his previous top lifetime figure, he followed it with an ugly dirt effort where he was in the hunt for most of the race before flattening out to a 91+ final figure late. That is pretty much exactly what he did the other day. He earned a lifetime top of 105 in the turf win beating hard knockers like Beautiful Balance and stakes winner Adminniestrator.
Following the top effort he was in the hunt while way wide and only 2-1/2 lengths behind a 44.7 opening half mile in a dirt sprint. That blast of early speed to stay with a bunch of dirt sprinters probably cooked his goose which could be the reason he just gave up for the final 1/4 mile. The last time he switched from the top figure/ugly effort pattern he snapped back with a solid effort in the next start so I'm confident that the return to the route distance and the switch back to grass will trigger another big effort off that pattern today.
In ORO DESERT's last win, the pace target was supplied by GALLOP FAT BOYS, who is in the race today and will probably set up a similar scenario. STAND BY YOUR FLAG is also up close early in most of his turf routes so he could try to push FAT BOYS for a way. I expect the major players to all be in stalking positions today - ORO DESERT and AMERICAN ALL STAR. LEGAL LOGIC won his only start over the Hollywood turf and is a consistent closer that gets PVal for the first time today, so that's a reason to list him with the other two. HUKA'S DIAMOND is about 7 lengths faster on turf than he is on dirt, so he may also be a stalker with a big chance as they turn for home in a big 11 horse field.
ORO DESERT is the spot play win bet today. This should be a wide open and interesting sprint for home so to tab exotics I would go 3-deep by keying ORO DESERT to AMERICAN ALL STAR, LEGAL LOGIC and HUKA'S DIAMOND. That could land all major placings in here. Good luck.
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The 6th race is a competitive N1X allowance race for California-breds at a mile on the turf. Par is a 104. ORO DESERT beat this level two starts ago on the Santa Anita turf and any of his last 3 turf efforts would hit very hard in here. His last 3 turf starts include a win at Bay Meadows with a 112-112-102, a close 3rd here at Hollywood with a 106-112-104+ and then the win from two starts ago at Santa Anita with a 109-107-105. The thing that will keep him at decent odds today is the ugly stretch run he threw in that last start, a 7 furlong Cal-bred allowance stake.
Obviously he needs to be in one piece when he competes today so there needs to be form reversal from the last start, but I thought that there were a couple of reasons to think that a major bounceback might be on tap. First, I noticed that the last time he threw in the huge turf effort at Hollywood on 12/10/03 which was his previous top lifetime figure, he followed it with an ugly dirt effort where he was in the hunt for most of the race before flattening out to a 91+ final figure late. That is pretty much exactly what he did the other day. He earned a lifetime top of 105 in the turf win beating hard knockers like Beautiful Balance and stakes winner Adminniestrator.
Following the top effort he was in the hunt while way wide and only 2-1/2 lengths behind a 44.7 opening half mile in a dirt sprint. That blast of early speed to stay with a bunch of dirt sprinters probably cooked his goose which could be the reason he just gave up for the final 1/4 mile. The last time he switched from the top figure/ugly effort pattern he snapped back with a solid effort in the next start so I'm confident that the return to the route distance and the switch back to grass will trigger another big effort off that pattern today.
In ORO DESERT's last win, the pace target was supplied by GALLOP FAT BOYS, who is in the race today and will probably set up a similar scenario. STAND BY YOUR FLAG is also up close early in most of his turf routes so he could try to push FAT BOYS for a way. I expect the major players to all be in stalking positions today - ORO DESERT and AMERICAN ALL STAR. LEGAL LOGIC won his only start over the Hollywood turf and is a consistent closer that gets PVal for the first time today, so that's a reason to list him with the other two. HUKA'S DIAMOND is about 7 lengths faster on turf than he is on dirt, so he may also be a stalker with a big chance as they turn for home in a big 11 horse field.
ORO DESERT is the spot play win bet today. This should be a wide open and interesting sprint for home so to tab exotics I would go 3-deep by keying ORO DESERT to AMERICAN ALL STAR, LEGAL LOGIC and HUKA'S DIAMOND. That could land all major placings in here. Good luck.