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DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS THINK ABOUT WEEK 14 IN THE NFL
Time to check in on what the sharps (professional wagerers) are thinking about this weekend's games in the NFL.
We'll start with Thursday Night's Pittsburgh/Cleveland game on the NFL Network, then run through the whole schedule. As always, games are presented in rotation order.
PITTSBURGH AT CLEVELAND: Early steam on Pittsburgh at -9 took the line up to -10 in most places. Some of that is position-taking, as sharps often take popular betting teams early around critical numbers so they can come back on the dog for a middle. You'll definitely see that if the line goes to 10½ or more. You may even see some bigger plays coming back over the top on the underdog given Pittsburgh's recent slump. This is a high spread for a team that's dealing with injuries, and who just lost to Oakland! The total has dropped significantly from 38 down to 33½ because of weather influencing practice this week and field conditions during the game. Sharps who bet early are very happy with their positions at 38 and 37. Stragglers are still pretty happy at 36 and 35. Big move on the Under.
DENVER AT INDIANAPOLIS: A lot of early support on underdog Denver at +8. The line is down to +7 at most places as I write this. Indianapolis hasn't been a blowout team in big games (though they covered last week). Denver needs the win as they fight for the AFC West crown with San Diego. Sharps were happy to get +8 on the opener, and acted quickly because they knew other sharps were interested. Sportsbooks were also looking to get off the 8 because the whole world would play Indianapolis in two-team teasers, moving that -8 down to -2. Indy wins a lot of close games. Sportsbooks don't to root for Kyle Orton +2 over Peyton Manning.
CINCINNATI AT MINNESOTA: The total has dropped from 44½ down to 43, based largely on Cincinnati's penchant for playing tight, low scoring games. The Bengals run clock on offense, and have done a good job most weeks of shutting down opponents on defense. The totals guys were surprised to see such a high number on the opener. I'm seeing some early dog sentiment at +7, as a few places are showing +6½. I think a lot of sharps are waiting to see if squares (the general public) come in on Favre in a bounce back spot after a loss. Sharps would really like to get more than a TD here, but that my not be in the cards.
NY JETS AT TAMPA BAY: Not much interest in this one. Kellen Clemens was just named as the starter over Mark Sanchez because of a knee injury. Clemens does have an experience edge over the TB quarterback. But, he's not necessarily a guy that sharps will trust laying points on the road. The total has dropped a tick from 37 to 36½. I don't expect a lot of action in this game over the weekend, though New York money often finds its way to Vegas before kickoff.
BUFFALO AT KANSAS CITY: I'll have to leave this one alone because there's uncertainty regarding injuries at key position. This is likely to be one of the least bet games on the board anyway. Nothing is at stake. Squares aren't interested in either team. Sharps are mostly interested in taking free points from square action. Unless oddsmakers have a really bad number up over the weekend, or there's late-breaking news on game day, this will be a quiet spot on the schedule.
GREEN BAY AT CHICAGO: Sharps bought the early hook, bringing the opener of Green Bay by 3½ down to three. I can't say that they're in love with Jay Cutler. But, they like seeing a divisional rival at home getting points when the visitor had to play Monday Night. They didn't anticipate the public hitting Green Bay off that ugly win Monday Night (so many penalties and turnovers on both teams). So, sharps took the hook when they could get it on the opener. The total has moved down from 43½ to 41. That's partly based on anticipated weather, and partly on the fact that the Bears are getting more conservative with Cutler in recent weeks leading to lower scoring games. I was surprised how high some of these totals opened in the cold weather cities. That's risky in December. Sportsbooks may regret taking those risks.
NEW ORLEANS AT ATLANTA: Early sentiment on the dog, as Atlanta +11 on the opener has dropped to +10½. Sharps are taking New Orleans opponents on the road fairly regularly now. That worked last week at Washington, and prior to that at St. Louis. It doesn't always work. Everyone remembers the Miami game! Should the public drive the line back up to 11 on game day, more sharps will step in on the divisional rivalry home underdog.
DETROIT AT BALTIMORE: Interesting action here on the home favorite and the Under. Why that combo? Detroit played poorly offensively at Cincinnati last week outside of two plays. There's not optimism this dome team will play well outdoors at Baltimore this week either. Baltimore is in a must-win situation too after Monday Night's loss at Green Bay. Sharps know that squares LOVE betting must-win favorites, particularly vs. horrible opponents. So, they took early positions on Baltimore at -13 hoping to set up some side/middle opportunities at -14 or higher. The total has dropped from 41 down to 39½.
MIAMI AT JACKSONVILLE: Jacksonville got early support at -2½, going up to a field goal. Some of that may have been defense from sportsbooks who are trying very hard to limit teaser possibilities that cross both the 3 and the 7 in two-teamers. They just don't want any part of them! Better to root for Jacksonville -3 than Jacksonville -8½ in their view. The total has dropped from 45 down to 43½. This obviously isn't a cold weather game. We're seeing lot of Under sentiment this week no matter where the games are being played, with more aggressive betting in the cold weather sites.
CAROLINA AT NEW ENGLAND: Fairly standard situation here. New England opened near a key number. Sharps bet the home favorite knowing the public will pile on over the weekend. So, an opener of New England -13 is up to -13½. Should it go to -14 or higher over the weekend, many sharps will buy back some on the dog to shoot a middle. Now, New England has won some home blowouts this year...so some sharps may just keep their early position and hope for another blowout. That's particularly true if weather is going to be an issue. New England has shown they can play in bad weather. If Carolina plays like Tennessee did on an earlier trip, this game is over now.
SEATTLE AT HOUSTON: Big move here on Houston, going from -4½ up to -6½ or -7. News about the quarterback position was certainly an influence there. Both teams are probably out of the playoff picture, though Houston may believe they still have an outside shot. This is very much an information move rather than a handicapping move in my view. The total has come down a point from 45½ to 44½. I don't expect much square action in this game. The sharps already have their money where they want it.
ST. LOUIS AT TENNESSEE: Very little interest in this game. Tennessee probably fell out of the playoff picture with last week's loss at Indy. St. Louis fell out of the playoff picture a few years ago! Vince Young isn't a blowout quarterback, so nobody wants to lay 13 points with him. I wouldn't be surprised to see sharps take a flyer on St. Louis come game day. They'll settle for +13, and hope for a little more from public betting. Probably not going to happen now that the well-publicized winning streak has come to an end. There are too many other marquee games Sunday for people to be worrying about St. Louis at Tennessee.
WASHINGTON AT OAKLAND: Early support for the Raiders, as +2 has dropped down to +1. Sharps are impressed with what Oakland has done since changing quarterbacks. They also know Washington has to be demoralized after a string of very tough losses to big name teams. If the Raiders aren't worn down from their trip to Pittsburgh, I think we'll see more sharp money on the Raiders before kickoff. We're not near any key numbers...so sharps are waiting for any reports they can get. The total has gone up from 36 to 37½. That's on the increased offensive production from Bruce Gradkowski, and because Washington has opened things up in recent weeks with new play calling.
SAN DIEGO AT DALLAS: This game will have a huge handle because the other late games lack media appeal. This will basically be like a Sunday Night game in terms of betting interest, with squares lined up at the windows as the game is kicking off. Sharps have only bet the total so far, with rare Over interest. An opener of 47½ is up to 48½ as we go to press. Dallas threw 55 passes last week. If they keep using that approach, they're games are going to fly Over...particularly those played indoors. My take on the side is that sharps want San Diego, but are hoping they see more than +3 by kickoff. Squares usually bet Dallas at cheap prices. If you like the Chargers, there's no reason to get your money down because you could see a better number Sunday. It's not the line will go down off the three.
PHILADELPHIA AT NY GIANTS: The total has come way down, with an opener of 47½ falling to 44½. That's another cold weather city with aggressive betting action on the Under. Nothing has happened on the team side yet. The Giants are -1. Sportsbooks don't want to lift the line to 1½ because that will invite teaser action on Philadelphia. I'm interested to see what happens before kickoff. This will be a heavily bet game in prime time. Sportsbooks are going to have to pick their poison and live with the results.
ARIZONA AT SAN FRANCISCO: Early support for Arizona at -3, as we now see -3½ everywhere. That's a big move off a key number. And, you can tell the sharps are serious because they wanted to get in before the public started betting. Should a bandwagon effect be created, they can always buy back for middles at a higher number. Kurt Warner doesn't get the betting respect that Brett Favre does from the squares. That may change in the next few weeks. Arizona really looked good against the Vikings this past Monday Night.
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS THINK ABOUT WEEK 14 IN THE NFL
Time to check in on what the sharps (professional wagerers) are thinking about this weekend's games in the NFL.
We'll start with Thursday Night's Pittsburgh/Cleveland game on the NFL Network, then run through the whole schedule. As always, games are presented in rotation order.
PITTSBURGH AT CLEVELAND: Early steam on Pittsburgh at -9 took the line up to -10 in most places. Some of that is position-taking, as sharps often take popular betting teams early around critical numbers so they can come back on the dog for a middle. You'll definitely see that if the line goes to 10½ or more. You may even see some bigger plays coming back over the top on the underdog given Pittsburgh's recent slump. This is a high spread for a team that's dealing with injuries, and who just lost to Oakland! The total has dropped significantly from 38 down to 33½ because of weather influencing practice this week and field conditions during the game. Sharps who bet early are very happy with their positions at 38 and 37. Stragglers are still pretty happy at 36 and 35. Big move on the Under.
DENVER AT INDIANAPOLIS: A lot of early support on underdog Denver at +8. The line is down to +7 at most places as I write this. Indianapolis hasn't been a blowout team in big games (though they covered last week). Denver needs the win as they fight for the AFC West crown with San Diego. Sharps were happy to get +8 on the opener, and acted quickly because they knew other sharps were interested. Sportsbooks were also looking to get off the 8 because the whole world would play Indianapolis in two-team teasers, moving that -8 down to -2. Indy wins a lot of close games. Sportsbooks don't to root for Kyle Orton +2 over Peyton Manning.
CINCINNATI AT MINNESOTA: The total has dropped from 44½ down to 43, based largely on Cincinnati's penchant for playing tight, low scoring games. The Bengals run clock on offense, and have done a good job most weeks of shutting down opponents on defense. The totals guys were surprised to see such a high number on the opener. I'm seeing some early dog sentiment at +7, as a few places are showing +6½. I think a lot of sharps are waiting to see if squares (the general public) come in on Favre in a bounce back spot after a loss. Sharps would really like to get more than a TD here, but that my not be in the cards.
NY JETS AT TAMPA BAY: Not much interest in this one. Kellen Clemens was just named as the starter over Mark Sanchez because of a knee injury. Clemens does have an experience edge over the TB quarterback. But, he's not necessarily a guy that sharps will trust laying points on the road. The total has dropped a tick from 37 to 36½. I don't expect a lot of action in this game over the weekend, though New York money often finds its way to Vegas before kickoff.
BUFFALO AT KANSAS CITY: I'll have to leave this one alone because there's uncertainty regarding injuries at key position. This is likely to be one of the least bet games on the board anyway. Nothing is at stake. Squares aren't interested in either team. Sharps are mostly interested in taking free points from square action. Unless oddsmakers have a really bad number up over the weekend, or there's late-breaking news on game day, this will be a quiet spot on the schedule.
GREEN BAY AT CHICAGO: Sharps bought the early hook, bringing the opener of Green Bay by 3½ down to three. I can't say that they're in love with Jay Cutler. But, they like seeing a divisional rival at home getting points when the visitor had to play Monday Night. They didn't anticipate the public hitting Green Bay off that ugly win Monday Night (so many penalties and turnovers on both teams). So, sharps took the hook when they could get it on the opener. The total has moved down from 43½ to 41. That's partly based on anticipated weather, and partly on the fact that the Bears are getting more conservative with Cutler in recent weeks leading to lower scoring games. I was surprised how high some of these totals opened in the cold weather cities. That's risky in December. Sportsbooks may regret taking those risks.
NEW ORLEANS AT ATLANTA: Early sentiment on the dog, as Atlanta +11 on the opener has dropped to +10½. Sharps are taking New Orleans opponents on the road fairly regularly now. That worked last week at Washington, and prior to that at St. Louis. It doesn't always work. Everyone remembers the Miami game! Should the public drive the line back up to 11 on game day, more sharps will step in on the divisional rivalry home underdog.
DETROIT AT BALTIMORE: Interesting action here on the home favorite and the Under. Why that combo? Detroit played poorly offensively at Cincinnati last week outside of two plays. There's not optimism this dome team will play well outdoors at Baltimore this week either. Baltimore is in a must-win situation too after Monday Night's loss at Green Bay. Sharps know that squares LOVE betting must-win favorites, particularly vs. horrible opponents. So, they took early positions on Baltimore at -13 hoping to set up some side/middle opportunities at -14 or higher. The total has dropped from 41 down to 39½.
MIAMI AT JACKSONVILLE: Jacksonville got early support at -2½, going up to a field goal. Some of that may have been defense from sportsbooks who are trying very hard to limit teaser possibilities that cross both the 3 and the 7 in two-teamers. They just don't want any part of them! Better to root for Jacksonville -3 than Jacksonville -8½ in their view. The total has dropped from 45 down to 43½. This obviously isn't a cold weather game. We're seeing lot of Under sentiment this week no matter where the games are being played, with more aggressive betting in the cold weather sites.
CAROLINA AT NEW ENGLAND: Fairly standard situation here. New England opened near a key number. Sharps bet the home favorite knowing the public will pile on over the weekend. So, an opener of New England -13 is up to -13½. Should it go to -14 or higher over the weekend, many sharps will buy back some on the dog to shoot a middle. Now, New England has won some home blowouts this year...so some sharps may just keep their early position and hope for another blowout. That's particularly true if weather is going to be an issue. New England has shown they can play in bad weather. If Carolina plays like Tennessee did on an earlier trip, this game is over now.
SEATTLE AT HOUSTON: Big move here on Houston, going from -4½ up to -6½ or -7. News about the quarterback position was certainly an influence there. Both teams are probably out of the playoff picture, though Houston may believe they still have an outside shot. This is very much an information move rather than a handicapping move in my view. The total has come down a point from 45½ to 44½. I don't expect much square action in this game. The sharps already have their money where they want it.
ST. LOUIS AT TENNESSEE: Very little interest in this game. Tennessee probably fell out of the playoff picture with last week's loss at Indy. St. Louis fell out of the playoff picture a few years ago! Vince Young isn't a blowout quarterback, so nobody wants to lay 13 points with him. I wouldn't be surprised to see sharps take a flyer on St. Louis come game day. They'll settle for +13, and hope for a little more from public betting. Probably not going to happen now that the well-publicized winning streak has come to an end. There are too many other marquee games Sunday for people to be worrying about St. Louis at Tennessee.
WASHINGTON AT OAKLAND: Early support for the Raiders, as +2 has dropped down to +1. Sharps are impressed with what Oakland has done since changing quarterbacks. They also know Washington has to be demoralized after a string of very tough losses to big name teams. If the Raiders aren't worn down from their trip to Pittsburgh, I think we'll see more sharp money on the Raiders before kickoff. We're not near any key numbers...so sharps are waiting for any reports they can get. The total has gone up from 36 to 37½. That's on the increased offensive production from Bruce Gradkowski, and because Washington has opened things up in recent weeks with new play calling.
SAN DIEGO AT DALLAS: This game will have a huge handle because the other late games lack media appeal. This will basically be like a Sunday Night game in terms of betting interest, with squares lined up at the windows as the game is kicking off. Sharps have only bet the total so far, with rare Over interest. An opener of 47½ is up to 48½ as we go to press. Dallas threw 55 passes last week. If they keep using that approach, they're games are going to fly Over...particularly those played indoors. My take on the side is that sharps want San Diego, but are hoping they see more than +3 by kickoff. Squares usually bet Dallas at cheap prices. If you like the Chargers, there's no reason to get your money down because you could see a better number Sunday. It's not the line will go down off the three.
PHILADELPHIA AT NY GIANTS: The total has come way down, with an opener of 47½ falling to 44½. That's another cold weather city with aggressive betting action on the Under. Nothing has happened on the team side yet. The Giants are -1. Sportsbooks don't want to lift the line to 1½ because that will invite teaser action on Philadelphia. I'm interested to see what happens before kickoff. This will be a heavily bet game in prime time. Sportsbooks are going to have to pick their poison and live with the results.
ARIZONA AT SAN FRANCISCO: Early support for Arizona at -3, as we now see -3½ everywhere. That's a big move off a key number. And, you can tell the sharps are serious because they wanted to get in before the public started betting. Should a bandwagon effect be created, they can always buy back for middles at a higher number. Kurt Warner doesn't get the betting respect that Brett Favre does from the squares. That may change in the next few weeks. Arizona really looked good against the Vikings this past Monday Night.