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Week 11's NFL point spread moves
Friday, November 20, 2009 | ESPN INSIDER
Busy, busy, very busy today. Holidays coming. People freaking out. So I called Jay Rood, the Mirage bookmaker, who is very smart and very succinct in his analysis. That way I could get the Week's NFL line moves column together as quickly as possible.
Thanks, Jay. You're swell.
Matchup: Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens
Line moves: Ravens from minus-1 to Colts minus-1
What that means: There is some recency bias at play, by bettors.
Jay says: "This is actually a lot of public money right now, and I think the main reason for that is people bet what they last saw. The Colts had a dramatic finish and the Ravens had a dud offensive game. That's the driving force. If this number goes to 1.5, I can see sharps taking the Ravens because sharp money always favors defense. The Colts are banged up right now on D, but I don't know if the Ravens can exploit them or keep up in a track meet on offense. That's what most people think in this game -- can the Ravens keep up with the Colts' offense?"
Matchup: San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers
Line moves: Packers from minus-5.5 to minus-6.5
What that means: The bookmakers put up a safe number to see which way the wind was blowing.
Jay says: "That was of an overnight move from last Sunday. Meaning the sharps took it from 5.5 to 6.5 as soon as it opened. That 5.5 is a number we can move quickly one way or the other, either up to seven or down to three. It just lets us take the temperature of Packers backers. And right now they believe the Packers will take care of business at home again. The public will play Green Bay, so I can see this number going to seven."
Matchup: Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Line moves: Texans from minus-3.5 to minus-5
What that means: There is some recency bias at play, by bookmakers.
Jay says: "That was an overnight move from last Sunday, too. It is just a statistical value play. I think the 3.5 was a little shy and based on what the Titans did recently and not their overall body of work. By that standard, this pans out closer to 4 or 4.5. That made the 3.5 a really good value if you like Houston. In the three-game streak Tennessee is on, only one win has been on the road, and that was at San Francisco, so it's not really a good barometer."
Matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs
Line moves: Steelers opened at minus-8, now at minus-10
What that means: Public barrage on Pittsburgh. Wise guys lay in wait.
Jay says: "All public money is on Pittsburgh, and if I need it I have the hook on 10.5, which will get me sharp money on Kansas City. I will keep that in my pocket just in case for the last 24 hours. Kansas City has been one of those teams sharps have been coming in on but normally not until game day. I actually wouldn't mind going into the game long on the Steelers and needing the Chiefs to cover 10 points at arrowhead."
Matchup: Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
Line moves: Cowboys opened at minus-12.5, now down to minus-11 and holding steady.
What that means: This play isn't about hating the Boys, it's about loving the Skins.
Jay says: "The Skins continue to get play. It is just a stats play. The points are really valuable if you have a certain way that you wager, and if you put value into it, you have to take that play. Generally the Skins have been rewarding players this year, and they are week in and week out the team that gets played. When you get enough points and the defense plays well, which the Skins do, you cash in."
Friday, November 20, 2009 | ESPN INSIDER
Busy, busy, very busy today. Holidays coming. People freaking out. So I called Jay Rood, the Mirage bookmaker, who is very smart and very succinct in his analysis. That way I could get the Week's NFL line moves column together as quickly as possible.
Thanks, Jay. You're swell.
Matchup: Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens
Line moves: Ravens from minus-1 to Colts minus-1
What that means: There is some recency bias at play, by bettors.
Jay says: "This is actually a lot of public money right now, and I think the main reason for that is people bet what they last saw. The Colts had a dramatic finish and the Ravens had a dud offensive game. That's the driving force. If this number goes to 1.5, I can see sharps taking the Ravens because sharp money always favors defense. The Colts are banged up right now on D, but I don't know if the Ravens can exploit them or keep up in a track meet on offense. That's what most people think in this game -- can the Ravens keep up with the Colts' offense?"
Matchup: San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers
Line moves: Packers from minus-5.5 to minus-6.5
What that means: The bookmakers put up a safe number to see which way the wind was blowing.
Jay says: "That was of an overnight move from last Sunday. Meaning the sharps took it from 5.5 to 6.5 as soon as it opened. That 5.5 is a number we can move quickly one way or the other, either up to seven or down to three. It just lets us take the temperature of Packers backers. And right now they believe the Packers will take care of business at home again. The public will play Green Bay, so I can see this number going to seven."
Matchup: Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Line moves: Texans from minus-3.5 to minus-5
What that means: There is some recency bias at play, by bookmakers.
Jay says: "That was an overnight move from last Sunday, too. It is just a statistical value play. I think the 3.5 was a little shy and based on what the Titans did recently and not their overall body of work. By that standard, this pans out closer to 4 or 4.5. That made the 3.5 a really good value if you like Houston. In the three-game streak Tennessee is on, only one win has been on the road, and that was at San Francisco, so it's not really a good barometer."
Matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs
Line moves: Steelers opened at minus-8, now at minus-10
What that means: Public barrage on Pittsburgh. Wise guys lay in wait.
Jay says: "All public money is on Pittsburgh, and if I need it I have the hook on 10.5, which will get me sharp money on Kansas City. I will keep that in my pocket just in case for the last 24 hours. Kansas City has been one of those teams sharps have been coming in on but normally not until game day. I actually wouldn't mind going into the game long on the Steelers and needing the Chiefs to cover 10 points at arrowhead."
Matchup: Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
Line moves: Cowboys opened at minus-12.5, now down to minus-11 and holding steady.
What that means: This play isn't about hating the Boys, it's about loving the Skins.
Jay says: "The Skins continue to get play. It is just a stats play. The points are really valuable if you have a certain way that you wager, and if you put value into it, you have to take that play. Generally the Skins have been rewarding players this year, and they are week in and week out the team that gets played. When you get enough points and the defense plays well, which the Skins do, you cash in."