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DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH LINESMAKER NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT WEEK 10 IN THE NFL
As I mentioned last time, there was a big sigh of relief when underdogs started cashing tickets this past Sunday in the NFL. May sharps had taken early positions on dogs on the thought that lines had adjusted too much toward favorites already. By kickoff, it was mostly a day where squares were all over the favorites again, while everyone else was rooting for dogs. This time around...sportsbooks and sharps had a day to celebrate.
Let's see if last week's results influenced this week's early betting action. Here's what the sharps are thinking so far about this weekend's NFL action. Note that we have a Thursday Night game this week for the first time since the Tennessee/Pittsburgh season opener.
Thursday's Game...
CHICAGO AT SAN FRANCISCO: Not much action out of the gate here. San Francisco opened at -3...and there's not enough love for either side to move off that key number. Sharps generally prefer underdogs obviously, and that's particularly when the favorite doesn't have a good history laying numbers. The 49ers are more of a feisty dog than a fantastic favorite, so I'd expect what little sentiment there is from sharps to be on the Bears. Many of them won big last week betting AGAINST Chicago though with the Arizona Cardinals. The Bears looked so bad in that game it's hard to truly love them vs. much of anyone right now. Really tough to bet on either side, which might diminish the projected action in this TV game. The public normally loves to root for the Bears...but they've been watching the games too. The total is up a tick from 43 to 43½ as we go to press.
The weekend...
JACKSONVILLE AT NY JETS: Early support on the Jets, as the opener of -6 moved up to -7. Sharps have noticed that the public has been betting favorites off a bye this year. The Jets qualify in that category. Might as well get position early to set up a middle. Sharps who like the dog can come back at kick off at a line that might be higher than the TD. Or, they could stick with a Jets team that might really shut down an inconsistent visitor from out of climate. I think oddsmakers underestimated the position-taking for the rested favorite. The total is up a full point from 39 to 40. Weather was mild last week. If that changes, we may see this number go back down. Mark Sanchez doesn't look like he's ready to be a cold weather quarterback just yet.
DENVER AT WASHINGTON: Interesting move here, with an opener of Denver -4½ falling down to -3½. There wasn't enough passion to get the line all the way down to a field goal though. Normally sharps would wait before pulling the trigger on the dog figuring the public would drive the line higher. So, there was enough passion to do THAT, but not enough to get down to a field goal. Not sure what to make of that. Most of the guys I'm talking to are either passing the game, or looking to take the home dog with the good defense at the best price they can find on Sunday. The total has gone up from 36 to 37½. There seems to be an impression that Washington is going to keep opening things up because being conservative has been such a waste of time. I think the totals guys are betting that angle. It's not like these two offenses have explosive stats so far.
CINCINNATI AT PITTSBURGH: Early position-taking on Pittsburgh as the line has gone from an opener of -6½ up to -7, with potential for even higher later in the week. The public loves betting Pittsburgh at home, especially when the team is winning. Monday Night's victory was very strong, suggesting the Steelers are about to become a public team again after a relatively slow start to the season. Now, Cincinnati is getting respect from sharps in the big picture. Many took the Bengals as a false home dog to Baltimore. They will take +7½ of +8 on Sunday if the line gets that high (though they'll also use Pittsburgh in two-team teasers that cross both the 3 and the 7). This early move was position-taking from sharps hoping to set up a big score if Pittsburgh wins by exactly 7 points on Sunday. The total has dropped a half a point from 42 down to 41½. If weather becomes an issue, we could see another point or two drop.
BUFFALO AT TENNESSEE: Early position bet on Tennessee, moving the line from -6 to -6½. Tennessee has won two games with Vince Young at quarterback. The public started betting him when he got hot a couple of years ago. Sharps wouldn't be surprised if that starts to happen again. Sharps do like Buffalo's defense though...and their ability to hang around as a road underdog. I wouldn't be surprised to see some over the top plays on the Bills come Sunday...positioned around the key number of seven. The total is up a half a point from 41 to 41½.
DETROIT AT MINNESOTA: Early position-taking on the big favorite, with Minnesota opening at -15, but jumping all the way to -16½. Minnesota is favorite off a bye. In this case it's one led by Brett Favre too! Throw in Detroit's collapse at Seattle this week...and sharps are just positive the squares will be all over the favorite. They wanted to take this early position on the Vikings to set up a return play on the Lions at +17 or better. Given how the public had been betting of late, they could have anticipated a 17½ or an 18 on game day. The public took such a hit last week that the resources may not be there to drive this line that high. Seeing a 17 will be enough to bring in some sharp action on the Lions I believe. Some old school guys take all dogs of that size no questions asked.
NEW ORLEANS AT ST. LOUIS: I was a bit surprised to see this line come down some given the other position-taking. New Orleans opened at -14, but came down to -13½ fairly quickly. This is what we saw a lot of last week...sharps taking the dog figuring they wouldn't see anything better than the key number the game was already new. New Orleans has failed to cover two in a row now (New Orleans and Carolina), so sharps must have figured the public had fallen out of love with them as an investment. Sharps like big dogs, and divisional dogs...so big, divisional, HOME dogs will definitely get their respect. It's interesting that they didn't even try to take a position here.
ATLANTA AT CAROLINA: Not much action in this game. Some places are hesitant to put a -2 up by Atlanta because they want to avoid teaser action on Carolina crossing the 3 and the 7. So, those places are posting a -1 and will live with wagering imbalance if it happens. Last week the entire card dodged the preferred teaser windows, as sportsbooks have learned the hard way that they have to project themselves against basic strategy teasers. I'm not hearing a lot of sentiment either way about this game. Atlanta's struggled to cover on the road. Carolina is very hard to trust.
TAMPA BAY AT MIAMI: Early position taking on Miami, as an opener of -9½ is up to at least 10 in most places now. Tampa Bay still has such a bad reputation that the public is bound to bet against them strong this Sunday. Sharps will take what they can get with the Bucs before kickoff, and will be positioned to win really big if the game lands exactly on ten. The total is up a half a point from 43½ to 44.
KANSAS CITY AT OAKLAND: This one is dancing around the teaser numbers in the 1½ to 2 range...with the numbers on the board sometimes having more to do with what each book thinks about teasers rather than this game. Sharps will take Kansas City crossing the 3 and the 7. Sportsbooks might be willing to have a bad team like KC in teaser legs, particularly since they played on the East Coast last week and have to play on the West Coast this week. Oakland did beat the Eagles on this field too. We have a game that sits in the teaser window...and the majority of action will involve that proposition. Who would bet either of these teams without a gimmick anyway?!
SEATTLE AT ARIZONA: This game opened at Arizona -7½, but jumped to -8½ and -9 pretty quickly. I think that might be teaser defense more than a love for Arizona at more than a TD. Sportsbooks really don't want to have to root for Seattle +2½, but they will in a million teasers if the line stays below nine. Not sure what to make of this one outside of teaser potential. Sharps don't lay big numbers in divisional rivalry games. They're not very impressed with Seattle right now though. Some took a shot in Dallas with the Seahawks and were disappointed with the results.
PHILADELPHIA AT SAN DIEGO: Another game in the teaser window. I can tell you some guys are excited to finally have some games to think about! San Diego is currently about -2 everywhere. That would set up teaser plays on Philadelphia crossing the 3 and the 7. Oddsmakers know that the Eagles are tired with this additional West Coast trip coming on the heels of three divisional games. And, they know San Diego wins big at home when things are going well. Sportsbooks might be willing to allow Philadelphia in teaser bets figuring the SD blowout potential covers their bases some. Both these teams played out East last week. Otherwise, San Diego would have been a more popular early bet in my view...at least in terms of taking a position to set up a middle. Big game, because the loser will be in a bad way in the playoff picture.
DALLAS AT GREEN BAY: Dallas is storming back to being America's Team after their recent victories. With Green Bay looking so bad of late, we can expect square money to come in on Dallas all afternoon. This will be the big TV game in the late afternoon window. Sportsbooks will be rooting for Green Bay, and for bad weather! Dallas is currently -3. Sharps will step in on Green Bay at anything over a field goal I think, particularly if the weather is going to be cold.
NEW ENGLAND AT INDIANAPOLIS: The only interest so far has been on the total, with an opener of 50 falling to 49½. There is going to be a lot of hype for this game. But, it's not quite the same as a couple of years ago when these were the dynasty franchises of the league. New England doesn't scare people the way they used to (maybe they should!). Indianapolis is a nice team that keeps looking good in the regular season then losing in the playoffs. And, really, nothing is going to top the intensity for Brett Favre returning to Green Bay. It's not like Peyton Manning used to play for the Patriots! Still, this will be a popular betting game to be sure, with the Sunday Night showcase allowing for all day action. I'd be surprised to see the line move off Indianapolis -3 given the support each team brings to the table. Maybe if a respected syndicate came in on the underdog...that would drive the line down to -2½ for the Colts. We saw that in Arizona/Chicago last week. Wouldn't be shocked if a group finds appeal in getting somebody like the Patriots with a full field goal for very big action.
BALTIMORE AT CLEVELAND: Most of the Monday Night matchups have been good this year. A horrible team like Cleveland hasn't been involved. I'm not sure if that will hurt betting interest or not. Everyone wants to bet Monday Night Football! If the sharps win big on Sunday, they'll definitely load up on Baltimore here and live with the spread. If not, we'll have to wait and see how it plays out. I'm seeing Cleveland +10½ right now. Remember that Cleveland upset the NY Giants on this field last year in a Monday Night game. Sharps will be looking to take what they can get on the home underdog.
WITH LINESMAKER NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT WEEK 10 IN THE NFL
As I mentioned last time, there was a big sigh of relief when underdogs started cashing tickets this past Sunday in the NFL. May sharps had taken early positions on dogs on the thought that lines had adjusted too much toward favorites already. By kickoff, it was mostly a day where squares were all over the favorites again, while everyone else was rooting for dogs. This time around...sportsbooks and sharps had a day to celebrate.
Let's see if last week's results influenced this week's early betting action. Here's what the sharps are thinking so far about this weekend's NFL action. Note that we have a Thursday Night game this week for the first time since the Tennessee/Pittsburgh season opener.
Thursday's Game...
CHICAGO AT SAN FRANCISCO: Not much action out of the gate here. San Francisco opened at -3...and there's not enough love for either side to move off that key number. Sharps generally prefer underdogs obviously, and that's particularly when the favorite doesn't have a good history laying numbers. The 49ers are more of a feisty dog than a fantastic favorite, so I'd expect what little sentiment there is from sharps to be on the Bears. Many of them won big last week betting AGAINST Chicago though with the Arizona Cardinals. The Bears looked so bad in that game it's hard to truly love them vs. much of anyone right now. Really tough to bet on either side, which might diminish the projected action in this TV game. The public normally loves to root for the Bears...but they've been watching the games too. The total is up a tick from 43 to 43½ as we go to press.
The weekend...
JACKSONVILLE AT NY JETS: Early support on the Jets, as the opener of -6 moved up to -7. Sharps have noticed that the public has been betting favorites off a bye this year. The Jets qualify in that category. Might as well get position early to set up a middle. Sharps who like the dog can come back at kick off at a line that might be higher than the TD. Or, they could stick with a Jets team that might really shut down an inconsistent visitor from out of climate. I think oddsmakers underestimated the position-taking for the rested favorite. The total is up a full point from 39 to 40. Weather was mild last week. If that changes, we may see this number go back down. Mark Sanchez doesn't look like he's ready to be a cold weather quarterback just yet.
DENVER AT WASHINGTON: Interesting move here, with an opener of Denver -4½ falling down to -3½. There wasn't enough passion to get the line all the way down to a field goal though. Normally sharps would wait before pulling the trigger on the dog figuring the public would drive the line higher. So, there was enough passion to do THAT, but not enough to get down to a field goal. Not sure what to make of that. Most of the guys I'm talking to are either passing the game, or looking to take the home dog with the good defense at the best price they can find on Sunday. The total has gone up from 36 to 37½. There seems to be an impression that Washington is going to keep opening things up because being conservative has been such a waste of time. I think the totals guys are betting that angle. It's not like these two offenses have explosive stats so far.
CINCINNATI AT PITTSBURGH: Early position-taking on Pittsburgh as the line has gone from an opener of -6½ up to -7, with potential for even higher later in the week. The public loves betting Pittsburgh at home, especially when the team is winning. Monday Night's victory was very strong, suggesting the Steelers are about to become a public team again after a relatively slow start to the season. Now, Cincinnati is getting respect from sharps in the big picture. Many took the Bengals as a false home dog to Baltimore. They will take +7½ of +8 on Sunday if the line gets that high (though they'll also use Pittsburgh in two-team teasers that cross both the 3 and the 7). This early move was position-taking from sharps hoping to set up a big score if Pittsburgh wins by exactly 7 points on Sunday. The total has dropped a half a point from 42 down to 41½. If weather becomes an issue, we could see another point or two drop.
BUFFALO AT TENNESSEE: Early position bet on Tennessee, moving the line from -6 to -6½. Tennessee has won two games with Vince Young at quarterback. The public started betting him when he got hot a couple of years ago. Sharps wouldn't be surprised if that starts to happen again. Sharps do like Buffalo's defense though...and their ability to hang around as a road underdog. I wouldn't be surprised to see some over the top plays on the Bills come Sunday...positioned around the key number of seven. The total is up a half a point from 41 to 41½.
DETROIT AT MINNESOTA: Early position-taking on the big favorite, with Minnesota opening at -15, but jumping all the way to -16½. Minnesota is favorite off a bye. In this case it's one led by Brett Favre too! Throw in Detroit's collapse at Seattle this week...and sharps are just positive the squares will be all over the favorite. They wanted to take this early position on the Vikings to set up a return play on the Lions at +17 or better. Given how the public had been betting of late, they could have anticipated a 17½ or an 18 on game day. The public took such a hit last week that the resources may not be there to drive this line that high. Seeing a 17 will be enough to bring in some sharp action on the Lions I believe. Some old school guys take all dogs of that size no questions asked.
NEW ORLEANS AT ST. LOUIS: I was a bit surprised to see this line come down some given the other position-taking. New Orleans opened at -14, but came down to -13½ fairly quickly. This is what we saw a lot of last week...sharps taking the dog figuring they wouldn't see anything better than the key number the game was already new. New Orleans has failed to cover two in a row now (New Orleans and Carolina), so sharps must have figured the public had fallen out of love with them as an investment. Sharps like big dogs, and divisional dogs...so big, divisional, HOME dogs will definitely get their respect. It's interesting that they didn't even try to take a position here.
ATLANTA AT CAROLINA: Not much action in this game. Some places are hesitant to put a -2 up by Atlanta because they want to avoid teaser action on Carolina crossing the 3 and the 7. So, those places are posting a -1 and will live with wagering imbalance if it happens. Last week the entire card dodged the preferred teaser windows, as sportsbooks have learned the hard way that they have to project themselves against basic strategy teasers. I'm not hearing a lot of sentiment either way about this game. Atlanta's struggled to cover on the road. Carolina is very hard to trust.
TAMPA BAY AT MIAMI: Early position taking on Miami, as an opener of -9½ is up to at least 10 in most places now. Tampa Bay still has such a bad reputation that the public is bound to bet against them strong this Sunday. Sharps will take what they can get with the Bucs before kickoff, and will be positioned to win really big if the game lands exactly on ten. The total is up a half a point from 43½ to 44.
KANSAS CITY AT OAKLAND: This one is dancing around the teaser numbers in the 1½ to 2 range...with the numbers on the board sometimes having more to do with what each book thinks about teasers rather than this game. Sharps will take Kansas City crossing the 3 and the 7. Sportsbooks might be willing to have a bad team like KC in teaser legs, particularly since they played on the East Coast last week and have to play on the West Coast this week. Oakland did beat the Eagles on this field too. We have a game that sits in the teaser window...and the majority of action will involve that proposition. Who would bet either of these teams without a gimmick anyway?!
SEATTLE AT ARIZONA: This game opened at Arizona -7½, but jumped to -8½ and -9 pretty quickly. I think that might be teaser defense more than a love for Arizona at more than a TD. Sportsbooks really don't want to have to root for Seattle +2½, but they will in a million teasers if the line stays below nine. Not sure what to make of this one outside of teaser potential. Sharps don't lay big numbers in divisional rivalry games. They're not very impressed with Seattle right now though. Some took a shot in Dallas with the Seahawks and were disappointed with the results.
PHILADELPHIA AT SAN DIEGO: Another game in the teaser window. I can tell you some guys are excited to finally have some games to think about! San Diego is currently about -2 everywhere. That would set up teaser plays on Philadelphia crossing the 3 and the 7. Oddsmakers know that the Eagles are tired with this additional West Coast trip coming on the heels of three divisional games. And, they know San Diego wins big at home when things are going well. Sportsbooks might be willing to allow Philadelphia in teaser bets figuring the SD blowout potential covers their bases some. Both these teams played out East last week. Otherwise, San Diego would have been a more popular early bet in my view...at least in terms of taking a position to set up a middle. Big game, because the loser will be in a bad way in the playoff picture.
DALLAS AT GREEN BAY: Dallas is storming back to being America's Team after their recent victories. With Green Bay looking so bad of late, we can expect square money to come in on Dallas all afternoon. This will be the big TV game in the late afternoon window. Sportsbooks will be rooting for Green Bay, and for bad weather! Dallas is currently -3. Sharps will step in on Green Bay at anything over a field goal I think, particularly if the weather is going to be cold.
NEW ENGLAND AT INDIANAPOLIS: The only interest so far has been on the total, with an opener of 50 falling to 49½. There is going to be a lot of hype for this game. But, it's not quite the same as a couple of years ago when these were the dynasty franchises of the league. New England doesn't scare people the way they used to (maybe they should!). Indianapolis is a nice team that keeps looking good in the regular season then losing in the playoffs. And, really, nothing is going to top the intensity for Brett Favre returning to Green Bay. It's not like Peyton Manning used to play for the Patriots! Still, this will be a popular betting game to be sure, with the Sunday Night showcase allowing for all day action. I'd be surprised to see the line move off Indianapolis -3 given the support each team brings to the table. Maybe if a respected syndicate came in on the underdog...that would drive the line down to -2½ for the Colts. We saw that in Arizona/Chicago last week. Wouldn't be shocked if a group finds appeal in getting somebody like the Patriots with a full field goal for very big action.
BALTIMORE AT CLEVELAND: Most of the Monday Night matchups have been good this year. A horrible team like Cleveland hasn't been involved. I'm not sure if that will hurt betting interest or not. Everyone wants to bet Monday Night Football! If the sharps win big on Sunday, they'll definitely load up on Baltimore here and live with the spread. If not, we'll have to wait and see how it plays out. I'm seeing Cleveland +10½ right now. Remember that Cleveland upset the NY Giants on this field last year in a Monday Night game. Sharps will be looking to take what they can get on the home underdog.