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DENVER AT BALTIMORE: Sportsbooks opened this one at Baltimore -3½. We've seen a slight tick downward to Denver +3 with extra juice. You now have to lay -120 or -125 in most places to get Baltimore -3, but at least you don't have to lay the hook. You don't often seen undefeated teams getting points. Iowa was in that role in the colleges last week, and got a lot of betting action as a team side and in teasers. Squares (the general public) still put more weight on perceptions than records, so Baltimore may be the public side come Sunday. The total made a big jump from 39½ up to 41½. Baltimore is playing higher scoring games this year because they're throwing the ball a lot with a good young quarterback...and because the defense is fading from age. Denver is playing low scoring games for the most part because of their conservative attack. The early line had both teams playing that way. Sharp totals guys expect the home team to control the tempo. They bet heavily at 39½, 40, 40½, and 41.
CLEVELAND AT CHICAGO: Not much action here, with the Bears laying 13 points to the struggling Browns. Sharps will take a position on some favorites figuring the line is going to go up. They didn't do that here because they don't trust Jay Cutler as a big favorite, and because game day weather may reduce the chance of a blowout. Sharps have learned not to act too hastily in the spots where weather might be an issue. You're much better off normally knowing what you're dealing with. There will be time later in the week to make the right decision. A lot of sharps took a very big hit on the Browns last Sunday. They were a popular syndicate choice after sick players got healthy in time for kickoff. They still played sick though, didn't they?
HOUSTON AT BUFFALO: Just like the Denver/Baltimore game, the favorite opened at -3½ and came down a tick. This time it's the road team that's the favorite though. Houston is -3 with extra juice in most places now. This probably won't be a heavily bet game by the public. I don't see sharps getting involved without the line move, unless late week news breaks for either team. The total is up a point from 40½ to 41½. Sharps like playing Overs in Houston games. They will watch the weather here though, and buy off their Over bets if it's going to be an issue.
MINNESOTA AT GREEN BAY: Note that this is a time change game to a later start for TV. FOX wants big ratings when Brett Favre returns to Green Bay! We expect very heavy action in this marquee matchup. There's no Sunday Night game, so this will be the game EVERYONE bets. It's always funny on this Sunday every year how many gamblers don't realize there isn't a Sunday Night game until too late. I guess the fine print on the starting times is just too small! We have another game where the favorite opened at 3½ and is now sitting at -3 with extra juice. Green Bay is the favorite here in the revenge spot, even though Minnesota has had the more impressive season thus far. I'm very interested to see if the public bets Favre, or if they go with the revenge angle with the home favorite. They've got to pick one. The total is down a point from 48 to 47. Some guys bet the Under just in case weather becomes a factor. That's smart to do in the Midwest cities once you reach November (the game is scheduled for November 1st). Also, last week's Minnesota/Pittsburgh game was misleadingly high scoring. There were 21 points from special teams or turnovers in a game where only 44 points were scored.
SAN FRANCISCO AT INDIANAPOLIS: Big jump here as Indianapolis -10 goes all the way up to -12½ or even -13. The public has been winning with Peyton Manning, and they're going to bet the Colts on Sunday regardless of what the line is. Sharps wanted to take an early position so they could set up a middle. If the line goes too far, they'll come back over the top on the 49ers. We didn't see this strategy in Cleveland/Chicago. It's very clearly in play here with a consistent home quarterback and a stadium that can shut the roof in bad weather. The total has come WAY down from 46½ to 43½. Some big plays on the totals (sharps haven't been hurt on totals this year, just on their underdog plays on team sides). Sharps respect both coaches defensively. They're not sold that Alex Smith is going to spark the San Francisco offense just because he moved the ball on the soft Houston prevent last week.
MIAMI AT NY JETS: Sharps have become very skeptical of the Jets. The line opened Jets -4 but fell down to Jets -3. They watched Oakland give away the game early last week before laying down. New York hadn't covered the spread in a few weeks prior to that game. They also know that the Meadowlands can be tough on inexperienced quarterbacks. If Miami had held on to beat New Orleans, this may have been a huge play for the sharps. They liked how Miami was playing, and they really wanted to go against the Jets. The late collapse by the Dolphins not only hurt their bankrolls, it erased some of the enthusiasm for this game. If the public bets the Jets over a field goal on game day, I expect the sharps to come in and take anything over that key number.
ST. LOUIS AT DETROIT: No line in this game as we go to press. The Detroit quarterback situation is up in the air. And, honestly, who in the world would want to bet this game anyway?! Sharps will bet any game with a bad number. Oddsmakers would rather wait until the Stafford situation clears up before posting a side or total line.
SEATTLE AT DALLAS: We're sitting right at Dallas -9½ right now, and have for most of the week. The consensus is that sharps will step in at +10. Nobody wanted to take a position on Dallas though because they've been so inconsistent as favorites. If the public comes in on the Cowboys this weekend, which is what Nevada expects for the most part, I expect sharps to be on the Seahawks by kickoff. Limited interest in the total so far.
OAKLAND AT SAN DIEGO: The Chargers are at -16½ in most places, which is a very high line for a home team that hasn't been very dominant. San Diego did blow out Kansas City last week though. I've heard of some guys taking position on the favorite figuring they can come back over the top at +17 or higher. Some sharps just can't lay a price like this in the NFL, even if it's to take a position! This will be kind of a test tube game. If San Diego covers this monster number, we're going to see things go even higher in the coming weeks. If San Diego is -16½ at home against Oakland, then New England or Indianapolis might be -20 or -21. The total is down from 42½ to 41½.
JACKSONVILLE AT TENNESSEE: No betting interest in this one yet. Sharps want to see if Vince Young is going to start at quarterback for the Titans. They're not fond of him at all. And, they don't think his teammates like him much either. I wouldn't be surprised to see support for the underdog from sharps if Young is announced as the starter before kickoff. There's really not much affection for either of these teams amongst sharps right now. You can't trust either to show up and win a bet for you. The total is up a point from 44 to 45.
CAROLINA AT ARIZONA: Huge move here as an opener of Arizona -7½ is all the way up to -10 as we go to press. Carolina's really struggled this year. The offense can't do anything without turning the ball over. How are they going to win on the road? Arizona impressed in their win Sunday Night at New York. Clearly some position taking here, because sharps don't like to lay more than a TD. Carolina has been so bad though that some sharps will stick with their early edge and hope for the best. The total has plummeted from 44 down to 41. Carolina's defense has been fantastic this year. Nobody's noticing because the offense has struggled so much. Sharps expect those tendencies to continue. It's best to think of this as a potential replay of the Carolina/Dallas game, which went to the home favorite and the Under.
NY GIANTS AT PHILADELPHIA: This has been time changed to an earlier start so it won't go head to head with the Brett Favre game. FOX basically reversed its marquee games in the doubleheader. Who would have thought THIS great matchup would be outshone by a game in Green Bay. There's no line yet because of the injury situation. You can bet a number will go up soon though in a marquee matchup like this. It will be the highest profile of the early TV games, and it matches perennial NFC contenders in a huge rivalry showdown. All I can say from my discussions with sharps is that they've noticed BOTH of these teams are playing well vs. bad teams, but not looking sharp when they have to step up in class. Both are facing a tough opponent this week. Sharps will take what the line gives them after the public gets involved.
ATLANTA AT NEW ORLEANS: The Saints get a Monday Night showcase after playing great on Sundays all year. They opened at 8½ and went right up to 10. No way this game was staying in the teaser window. We actually don't have ANY games right now that would allow bettors to tease games six points across the 3 and the 7. Sharps knew the squares loaded up on New Orleans last week even in the killer sandwich spot (after a big TV win over NYG, before a Monday Night divisional game). They'll definitely bet the Saints here whatever the line is. Sharps will pick a number to buy back at...probably waiting to see if they can get +11 or better before kickoff. Atlanta's no stiff. Sharps will be more confident of the Falcons plus a higher number this week than they were with Washington this past Monday Night
CLEVELAND AT CHICAGO: Not much action here, with the Bears laying 13 points to the struggling Browns. Sharps will take a position on some favorites figuring the line is going to go up. They didn't do that here because they don't trust Jay Cutler as a big favorite, and because game day weather may reduce the chance of a blowout. Sharps have learned not to act too hastily in the spots where weather might be an issue. You're much better off normally knowing what you're dealing with. There will be time later in the week to make the right decision. A lot of sharps took a very big hit on the Browns last Sunday. They were a popular syndicate choice after sick players got healthy in time for kickoff. They still played sick though, didn't they?
HOUSTON AT BUFFALO: Just like the Denver/Baltimore game, the favorite opened at -3½ and came down a tick. This time it's the road team that's the favorite though. Houston is -3 with extra juice in most places now. This probably won't be a heavily bet game by the public. I don't see sharps getting involved without the line move, unless late week news breaks for either team. The total is up a point from 40½ to 41½. Sharps like playing Overs in Houston games. They will watch the weather here though, and buy off their Over bets if it's going to be an issue.
MINNESOTA AT GREEN BAY: Note that this is a time change game to a later start for TV. FOX wants big ratings when Brett Favre returns to Green Bay! We expect very heavy action in this marquee matchup. There's no Sunday Night game, so this will be the game EVERYONE bets. It's always funny on this Sunday every year how many gamblers don't realize there isn't a Sunday Night game until too late. I guess the fine print on the starting times is just too small! We have another game where the favorite opened at 3½ and is now sitting at -3 with extra juice. Green Bay is the favorite here in the revenge spot, even though Minnesota has had the more impressive season thus far. I'm very interested to see if the public bets Favre, or if they go with the revenge angle with the home favorite. They've got to pick one. The total is down a point from 48 to 47. Some guys bet the Under just in case weather becomes a factor. That's smart to do in the Midwest cities once you reach November (the game is scheduled for November 1st). Also, last week's Minnesota/Pittsburgh game was misleadingly high scoring. There were 21 points from special teams or turnovers in a game where only 44 points were scored.
SAN FRANCISCO AT INDIANAPOLIS: Big jump here as Indianapolis -10 goes all the way up to -12½ or even -13. The public has been winning with Peyton Manning, and they're going to bet the Colts on Sunday regardless of what the line is. Sharps wanted to take an early position so they could set up a middle. If the line goes too far, they'll come back over the top on the 49ers. We didn't see this strategy in Cleveland/Chicago. It's very clearly in play here with a consistent home quarterback and a stadium that can shut the roof in bad weather. The total has come WAY down from 46½ to 43½. Some big plays on the totals (sharps haven't been hurt on totals this year, just on their underdog plays on team sides). Sharps respect both coaches defensively. They're not sold that Alex Smith is going to spark the San Francisco offense just because he moved the ball on the soft Houston prevent last week.
MIAMI AT NY JETS: Sharps have become very skeptical of the Jets. The line opened Jets -4 but fell down to Jets -3. They watched Oakland give away the game early last week before laying down. New York hadn't covered the spread in a few weeks prior to that game. They also know that the Meadowlands can be tough on inexperienced quarterbacks. If Miami had held on to beat New Orleans, this may have been a huge play for the sharps. They liked how Miami was playing, and they really wanted to go against the Jets. The late collapse by the Dolphins not only hurt their bankrolls, it erased some of the enthusiasm for this game. If the public bets the Jets over a field goal on game day, I expect the sharps to come in and take anything over that key number.
ST. LOUIS AT DETROIT: No line in this game as we go to press. The Detroit quarterback situation is up in the air. And, honestly, who in the world would want to bet this game anyway?! Sharps will bet any game with a bad number. Oddsmakers would rather wait until the Stafford situation clears up before posting a side or total line.
SEATTLE AT DALLAS: We're sitting right at Dallas -9½ right now, and have for most of the week. The consensus is that sharps will step in at +10. Nobody wanted to take a position on Dallas though because they've been so inconsistent as favorites. If the public comes in on the Cowboys this weekend, which is what Nevada expects for the most part, I expect sharps to be on the Seahawks by kickoff. Limited interest in the total so far.
OAKLAND AT SAN DIEGO: The Chargers are at -16½ in most places, which is a very high line for a home team that hasn't been very dominant. San Diego did blow out Kansas City last week though. I've heard of some guys taking position on the favorite figuring they can come back over the top at +17 or higher. Some sharps just can't lay a price like this in the NFL, even if it's to take a position! This will be kind of a test tube game. If San Diego covers this monster number, we're going to see things go even higher in the coming weeks. If San Diego is -16½ at home against Oakland, then New England or Indianapolis might be -20 or -21. The total is down from 42½ to 41½.
JACKSONVILLE AT TENNESSEE: No betting interest in this one yet. Sharps want to see if Vince Young is going to start at quarterback for the Titans. They're not fond of him at all. And, they don't think his teammates like him much either. I wouldn't be surprised to see support for the underdog from sharps if Young is announced as the starter before kickoff. There's really not much affection for either of these teams amongst sharps right now. You can't trust either to show up and win a bet for you. The total is up a point from 44 to 45.
CAROLINA AT ARIZONA: Huge move here as an opener of Arizona -7½ is all the way up to -10 as we go to press. Carolina's really struggled this year. The offense can't do anything without turning the ball over. How are they going to win on the road? Arizona impressed in their win Sunday Night at New York. Clearly some position taking here, because sharps don't like to lay more than a TD. Carolina has been so bad though that some sharps will stick with their early edge and hope for the best. The total has plummeted from 44 down to 41. Carolina's defense has been fantastic this year. Nobody's noticing because the offense has struggled so much. Sharps expect those tendencies to continue. It's best to think of this as a potential replay of the Carolina/Dallas game, which went to the home favorite and the Under.
NY GIANTS AT PHILADELPHIA: This has been time changed to an earlier start so it won't go head to head with the Brett Favre game. FOX basically reversed its marquee games in the doubleheader. Who would have thought THIS great matchup would be outshone by a game in Green Bay. There's no line yet because of the injury situation. You can bet a number will go up soon though in a marquee matchup like this. It will be the highest profile of the early TV games, and it matches perennial NFC contenders in a huge rivalry showdown. All I can say from my discussions with sharps is that they've noticed BOTH of these teams are playing well vs. bad teams, but not looking sharp when they have to step up in class. Both are facing a tough opponent this week. Sharps will take what the line gives them after the public gets involved.
ATLANTA AT NEW ORLEANS: The Saints get a Monday Night showcase after playing great on Sundays all year. They opened at 8½ and went right up to 10. No way this game was staying in the teaser window. We actually don't have ANY games right now that would allow bettors to tease games six points across the 3 and the 7. Sharps knew the squares loaded up on New Orleans last week even in the killer sandwich spot (after a big TV win over NYG, before a Monday Night divisional game). They'll definitely bet the Saints here whatever the line is. Sharps will pick a number to buy back at...probably waiting to see if they can get +11 or better before kickoff. Atlanta's no stiff. Sharps will be more confident of the Falcons plus a higher number this week than they were with Washington this past Monday Night